Miami Dolphins wide receiver Cedrick Wilson Jr. flashed as a Cowboy in 2021. He displayed a higher ceiling than many thought he had and proved capable of producing in a pinch. Now set to be the Dolphins’ WR3, what is Wilson’s fantasy football outlook for the 2022 seasons, and should managers look to target him at his ADP in fantasy drafts?
Cedrick Wilson Jr.’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Good for Wilson to earn himself a legitimate contract. Wilson’s path to NFL relevancy was quite unconventional. He’s a former sixth-round pick, 23-year-old rookie who redshirted in his first NFL season. After doing just about nothing in his first two seasons, Wilson caught 45 passes for 602 yards and six touchdowns in 2021.
Wilson was not a consistent fantasy producer. Finishing the year as a WR4, with 10.6 PPR fantasy points on average in 14 games, Wilson was never really a WR4. He was either completely irrelevant or a legitimate fantasy starter. Wilson, in fact, hit a couple of impressive benchmarks last season. He had a 10-target game, two 100-yard receiving games, and a two-touchdown game.
Entering his age-26 season, Wilson now gets a chance to be the Dolphins’ WR3. However, the question for Wilson’s fantasy outlook is, will this role will be fantasy-relevant?
How the Dolphins’ depth chart impacts Cedrick Wilson Jr.’s fantasy projection for the season
Things were really looking up for Wilson after signing with Miami. He was likely going to be their WR3, but he easily could’ve usurped DeVante Parker for the WR2 role opposite Jaylen Waddle. Then, the Dolphins traded for Tyreek Hill, and everything changed.
The good news is the Dolphins traded away Parker to the Patriots. As things currently stand, Wilson is the clear WR3 behind Hill and Waddle. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that’s a role conducive to him having consistent fantasy value.
The Dolphins don’t run many three-receiver sets
Last season, the Dolphins led the NFL in 12-personnel sets, running it 61% of the time. It was, by far, the highest rate in the league. They ran 11-personnel just 28% of the time. Unsurprisingly, this was miles away from the league average.
Now I know what you’re thinking — that was a different coaching staff and a different roster. All true. So let’s look at what new head coach Mike McDaniel did in San Francisco.
The 49ers ran 11-personnel just 48% of the time. This was the sixth-lowest rate in the league. The hope for Wilson is that a progressive, forward-thinking mind like McDaniel is willing to change his offensive philosophy to suit his personnel.
Wilson should be the Dolphins’ primary slot receiver
The Dolphins’ optimal offensive lineup would have Hill and Waddle on the outside, Wilson in the slot, with Mike Gesicki at tight end.
Last season, Wilson lined up in the slot 78% of the time. If this happens, Wilson will be on the field regularly and have a chance at WR4/5 value.
However, for him to be someone you really want to start in fantasy football each week, it will take an injury to Hill or Waddle. Tua Tagovailoa may very well take a step forward this season, but he’s still unlikely to throw enough or be prolific enough to support three fantasy-relevant receivers.
Wilson’s ADP for 2022
Wilson’s ADP is well outside the top 72 of wide receivers. In fact, it barely cracks the top 100, and he’ll go undrafted outside of extremely deep leagues. We at PFN are in agreement that Wilson is tough to draft, ranking him as our consensus WR94.
In general, it’s difficult for any player to play 17 games. It’s almost certain that one of Hill or Waddle will miss time at some point. If and when that happens, Wilson will be a popular waiver wire add. As of now, however, there isn’t a reason to select him in fantasy drafts.