One of the more widely disputed wide receivers in the NFL and fantasy football, Green Bay Packers WR Allen Lazard projects to be an intriguing pick as his 2022 fantasy outlook could be that of a top option or a mid-round bust. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Lazard’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Allen Lazard’s fantasy outlook for 2022
The 2022 offseason for the Green Bay Packers could have been its own drama series. First, it was Aaron Rodgers and if he would return, retire, or move to a new team. In the end, he came back to the team. But that was not it. In a move that surprised many, Davante Adams was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders. This left the Packers needing to restructure their wide receiver corps. While they did address this in the draft and free agency, the leading candidate as the 2022 WR1 is Allen Lazard.
Heading into Year 4 with the team, Lazard has shown flashes but lacked consistency. After a one-catch rookie campaign, Lazard posted 35 receptions and 477 yards in 2019. Unfortunately, his 2020 season was slow to get off the ground as Lazard sustained a core muscle injury which placed him on the IR. The timing could not have been worse as Lazard was coming off the best game of his career to date, catching six of eight targets for 146 yards and a TD against New Orleans.
2021 was another ho-hum season for Lazard as he played second fiddle to Adams and his 31.6% target share. Playing in 15 games, Lazard caught 40 of 60 targets for 513 yards with an impressive eight touchdowns. While he was the WR45 overall and WR51 in points per game (10.2 PPR), he ended the season on fire.
Lazard’s end-of-season success could carry over into 2022
Over the final five weeks, Lazard was the WR8 in PPR scoring thanks to 21 receptions for 290 receiving yards and five touchdowns to close the year out. This is one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL, and the WR1 role on the team will be highly coveted. I do not believe Lazard will be a high-volume player. It’s more than likely Rodgers spreads the ball around more than we have seen happen.
With that said, someone has to replace Adams in the red zone, and the 6’5″ Lazard looks to be the best option. Currently outside the top 40 in most rankings, Lazard could be one of the steals of the year for fantasy should things click.
How the Packers depth chart impacts Allen Lazard’s fantasy projection for the season
During free agency, the Packers lost both Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and signed Sammy Watkins. That is not an even move. Sure, Watkins is primed for his yearly Week 1 blowup game. But beyond that, he has just one 600+ yard season since 2015 in Buffalo while being both injury-prone and as boom-or-bust as it gets (WR3 or worse in 83% of games since 2016). Watkins is a complementary piece, nothing more.
Randall Cobb is in a similar boat as he is beyond the age cliff (32 years old) and is likely nothing more than a chain-mover who Rodgers trusts. Despite having the team trade for his former teammate, Cobb saw just 29 targets last season and is unlikely to be more than a hope-and-pray player in the deepest of leagues.
Green Bay’s wide receiver room has yet to be finalized
Where things become a bit more intriguing, at least for their impact on Lazard, are the trio of rookies. Finally bucking the trend of refusing to draft receivers, Green Bay traded up to select Christian Watson (No. 34) and added both Romeo Doubs from Nevada (No. 132) and Samori Toure from Nebraska (No. 258).
I avoided early camp talk as things are sensationalized for storylines. The Watson “can’t catch” rumors are vastly overblown. However, he is unpolished and could be anything from a world-beater to the next MVS. Doubs was Carson Strong’s top target at Nevada, with an ability to make the difficult catches look easy. He has also been the receiver who has flashed the most in camp, drawing both praise and criticism from Rodgers, who expected perfection. Watson’s knee injury places him both behind the eight-ball, and at the moment, behind Doubs.
Someone will break out of this room. There is too much talent in Rodgers’ arm and too much volume to be spread around for it not to happen. You have to go all the way back to 2017 for the last time a Packers wide receiver not named Adams had over 90 targets. That was Cobb with 92. Over the last three seasons, Aaron Jones has finished second in target with 65, 63, and 68. He could even top that in 2022. Of the options available, Lazard is the best choice for fantasy managers to target. Still, he has arguably the widest range of outcomes for any projected No. 1 option in the NFL.
Lazard’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 107, Lazard is coming off the boards as the WR44 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him towards the end of round eight round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Lazard is very close to his current ADP as the WR42 and 101st ranked player. While PFN’s rankings are a consensus, we are all in agreement. Lazard is currently ranked 41st amongst receivers and the 99th player overall on my board.
The top target of Rodgers will always be a valuable commodity so long as the player on the receiving end of those targets has the talent to capitalize on this role. By no means is he Adams, but Lazard is the best bet to be the No. 1 target hog on this offense, making him a draftable fantasy asset in virtually all formats and league sizes.
There will be bumps in the road, and I don’t expect Lazard to light the consistency metrics on fire. But if I can draft someone who will see 100+ targets from the back-to-back MVP, I’m taking that deal. Lazard is a great high-upside WR4 that could vault upwards in value if things click early and often in 2022.