One of the better running backs in the NFL and fantasy football, Atlanta Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson projects to be an intriguing pick in 2022 as his fantasy outlook has a wide range of outcomes. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Patterson’s fantasy outlook for 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Cordarrelle Patterson’s fantasy outlook for 2022
One of the questions you see the most every offseason are people asking who will be the breakout player of the season for fantasy football? I think it’s safe to assume no one had a 30-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson on their bingo card as last season’s breakout star.
The RB9 in 2021, Patterson was the do-it-all player for the Falcons, who lacked any playmakers not named Kyle Pitts. Patterson saw nearly as many touches last season (205) as he had in his four previous years combined (220). Of those touches, 31.1% came via the air (69) and accounted for 58.1% of his fantasy points per game (8.55). That’s where his value is for fantasy football.
Purely as a rusher, Patterson was serviceable, but he showed a rather significant downturn in production towards the end of the season. From Weeks 14 through 18, Patterson averaged just 2.62 yards per carry. While he averaged 2.95 yards after contact per attempt on the year, that bottomed out at 1.56 over the final four weeks. Although he did average 14.7 PPR/game, Patterson posted just 8.0 PPR/game over the final six weeks, including four in a row outside the RB2 range (top 24).
There’s a significant concern Patterson wore down towards the end of the year, right when fantasy managers needed him the most. The absence of Mike Davis will lead some managers to believe Patterson is set to repeat in 2022, but I’m not in that group. This is not an endorsement of Tyler Allgeier or Damien Williams, but I do believe they will be involved.
No question Patterson has skills, and on an offense that lacks playmakers, he’ll be involved. However, it appears Patterson is unlikely to find the same success on what should be one of the worst teams in the NFL. I have zero issues with Patterson as an RB3 in 2022. Personally, I just can’t find the same path for high-end RB2 value that others are seeing.
How the Falcons’ depth chart impacts Cordarrelle Patterson’s fantasy projection for the season
When you look at this depth chart, it’s quickly apparent this is a team in a rebuild. Aside from Pitts and Drake London, it’s a bunch of question marks scattered around. It’s why Pitts, who is coming off a 1,000-yard rookie season, is expected to be even better in 2022 and why London is the top-ranked rookie WR of the class.
If you look back at recent history, of the 12 wide receivers selected inside the top 10 of the NFL draft since 2012, all seven who missed three or fewer games all saw over 100 targets. Three of those came last year with Ja’Marr Chase (128), Jaylen Waddle (140), and DeVonta Smith (104). The others are Amari Cooper (130), Sammy Watkins (128), Mike Evans (122), and Justin Blackmon (132).
I’m already penciling in London for 125+ targets and could see him pushing into the 130s. Who is his competition outside of Pitts? Bryan Edwards and Olamide Zaccheaus?
The Falcons’ lack of depth can help Patterson, London, and Pitts
If anything, behind London and Pitts, Patterson is just as likely to be No. 3 in target share. The question then becomes how many pass catchers the Falcons can sustain and still be fantasy relevant. This is no longer Matt Ryan’s team. It’s Marcus Mariota under center with Desmond Ridder waiting in the wings.
This is likely not a pass-happy team. At least not when Arthur Smith can help it. However, negative game scripts likely will force his hand.
It’s likely we see something more similar to his 2019 and 2020 rates of 58.7% and 52.8% passing rates in neutral games. Therefore, I don’t project the Falcons to be in the upper half of passing attempts per game, limiting the potential upside for non-critical players outside Patterson, London, and Pitts.
Barring injury or another surprise, it’s unlikely the Falcons’ offense produces a fourth weekly fantasy-relevant player in 2022 (not including QBs in Superflex leagues).
Patterson’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 77, Patterson is coming off the boards as the RB30 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him in the middle of the sixth round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Patterson is quite a bit higher as the RB25 and the 53rd overall ranked player. While PFN’s rankings are a consensus, it’s pretty close to where he is in my rankings as the RB26 and 62nd overall ranked player.
Given the lack of playmakers outside of Pitts and London, Patterson should be busy in 2022. The concern is will the Falcons pull back his touch count from last year as it appeared he wore down toward the end of the season. The selection of Allgeier suggests he will see a decent chunk of the carries as a one-cut, see-it-hit-it style rusher, with Patterson, the more finesse player, finding the majority of his value in the passing game.
In PPR formats, Patterson as an RB3, while not a pick that will wow your league mates, should bring a decent return if he can be anywhere close to what he was last season. There is the ever-present age cliff facing Patterson, but if he holds off Father Time one more year, there is upside to be found. However, I would advise not waiting too long to draft your RB4 in case the same efficiency does not repeat.