Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Russell Gage is coming off the best season of his career where he was the de facto WR1 in Atlanta. Now on the Bucs playing with the greatest quarterback of all time, what can fantasy football managers expect from Gage in the 2022 season, and is he a good value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Russell Gage’s fantasy outlook for 2022
For a sixth-round pick, Gage has already massively exceeded expectations for his career. Over the past two seasons, Gage averaged 11.6 and 11.3 PPR fantasy points per game. While no one would mistake Gage for some sort of special talent, he’s a very capable receiver that can produce when called upon.
Last year, Gage was tasked with operating as Matt Ryan’s primary wide receiver following Calvin Ridley’s decision to step away from football. In that role, Gage displayed a higher-than-expected ceiling. He posted five games over 16 fantasy points, which is the typical threshold for WR1 production. His 2.19 yards per route run was 13th in the NFL.
How the Buccaneers’ depth chart impacts Russell Gage’s fantasy projection for the season
After four years in Atlanta, Gage left the team that drafted him to sign with the Bucs. For at least one season, Gage will get to play with Tom Brady. That’s an obvious bump to his fantasy value.
Equally important for Gage’s 2022 fantasy outlook is his projected opportunity. It remains to be seen if Chris Godwin starts the season for Tampa Bay and what his snap count will be. They already lost Antonio Brown. During the latter portion of the 2021 season, we saw what the receivers behind Mike Evans could do, and it wasn’t great.
Gage is better than the likes of Breshad Perriman, Cyril Grayson, and Tyler Johnson. While he’s poised to open the season as the WR2 opposite Evans, Godwin’s eventual return combined with Julio Jones having to do something lowers Gage’s floor and ceiling.
Last year, Brady led the NFL in pass attempts with 42.3 per game. Even if that number decreases considerably, Gage may have upwards of a 20% target share to open the season. There is legitimate WR3 value here, and Gage will almost certainly post WR2 weeks for as long as Godwin is out.
Even when Godwin returns, it’s unlikely he will return to his pre-injury usage level until 2023. Gage’s value will undoubtedly take a hit over the second half of the season, but it may not be as big as you think at first glance.
It would not surprise me if Gage opened the season averaging 13-14 ppg. Gage has WR2 potential to start the season and may maintain WR3 value even when Godwin returns.
Gage’s ADP for 2022
Godwin’s surprise avoidance of the PUP list and Jones’ signing stopped Gage’s ADP rise in its tracks. Instead, it’s gone in the opposite direction. Gage now goes around 133rd overall, and he’s being drafted as the WR49.
I still like Gage at his price. While I’m not overly excited about the idea of taking a player who could tail off as the season goes along, the early weeks matter. Gage is our consensus ranked WR56 in our 2022 fantasy football rankings, but I have him all the way up at WR44. I still view Gage as someone who could be an every week WR3 for at least the first month or two.