One of the top receivers in the NFL and fantasy football, Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin projects to be an early pick once again as his 2022 fantasy outlook rivals the better players in the game. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is McLaurin’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Terry McLaurin’s fantasy outlook for 2022
When I lie down at night, I don’t wish for world peace, a puppy, or an endless supply of bacon and bourbon. No. I wish the NFL would institute the transfer portal so McLaurin can get the hell out of Washington. Maybe that’s a bit extreme, but let me tell you, it has been brutal.
In his second consecutive 130+ target season, McLaurin hauled in 77 receptions for 1,053 yards and five TDs as the WR25 in PPR (WR32 in points per game). Yet, it still didn’t feel like McLaurin was a borderline WR2. In his 17 games last year, McLaurin was a WR1 four times but was a WR3 or worse in the remaining 13 games. That’s 76%. In his three years in the NFL, McLaurin has struggled in this regard, recording top-24 (WR2+) weeks in just 37% of his games.
The issue was the inconsistency under center in Washington. Taylor Heinicke’s on-target percentage of 71.5% was fourth-worst amongst starting QBs. That’s not a new thing either. In McLaurin’s three years, his catchable ball rates have been 72%, 75.4%, and 72.3%. When the ball is deemed catchable, McLaurin is pulling them in at an elite 84.7% (222 of 262).
What surprises many is that McLaurin was No. 3 in the NFL in air yards percentage (42.4%) and No. 4 in total air yards with 1,717. That’s 100+ yards more than Ja’Marr Chase and Davante Adams despite both blowing past McLaurin in actual yardage. In fact, McLaurin’s 61% conversion rate of intended air yards to actual yards was the fourth lowest amongst WRs (minimum 75 targets).
Terry McLaurins’ fantasy upside has been decimated due to inconsistency at QB
When you look at the quarterbacks McLaurin has played with, you begin to understand why he’s struggled. Heinicke, Garrett Gilbert, Kyle Allen, Case Keenum, Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, and Colt McCoy. That’s quite a list. Heck, Carson Wentz might be the best quarterback McLaurin has played with to date in the NFL, and he is quite a ways removed from his MVP-level 2017 season with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Whether or not you should be drafting McLaurin should not be based on his talent. To me, that’s set in stone. He is incredible and has top-12 upside at his position. The real question is if you believe Wentz is an actual upgrade at QB. If so, McLaurin brings substantial upside during his contract year as he waits to get paid. He’s a fantasy WR1 trapped in a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 role. At some point, this has to change before it’s too late.
How the Commanders’ depth chart impacts McLaurin’s fantasy projection for the season
Washington is an interesting team in 2022. After going toe-to-toe with Tampa Bay in the playoffs after the 2020 season, the belief was Washington could be a sneaky contender in the NFC last year. Wrong. Due to injuries and poor play, that never happened, and they finished 7-10.
Offensively, there have been a few changes, primarily at QB, with Wentz coming via trade with Indianapolis. He is a slight upgrade over Heinicke and should help McLaurin.
Even with inconsistent play, Wentz was still putting up better numbers than Heinicke (QB22). Compared to Wentz last season, Heinicke threw for 3,419 yards (Wentz – 3,563), 20 touchdowns (Wentz – 27), and 15 interceptions (Wentz – 7) while managing an 85.9 passer rating (Wentz – 94.6). When you add the context of his play, McLaurin becomes more impressive.
Deeper targets are another area where Wentz could be an upgrade over Heinicke. While Heinicke attempted more deep passes (64 to 60), Wentz had a higher completion rate, completing 43.3% (sixth in the NFL) to Heinicke’s 32.8% (24th overall). That’s another hopeful boost for McLaurin.
If Wentz can’t go or is struggling for one reason or another, rookie Sam Howell could be the next choice. Selected in the fifth round out of North Carolina, Howell brings some upside characteristics and even mobility but comes from a heavy RPO-based scheme. It’s difficult to know how he will translate to the NFL.
Washington’s wide receiver room will look different this season
The wide receiver room also will look very different in 2022. Well, hopefully, that is. One semi-new addition is a player we rarely saw on the field despite a significant contract, Curtis Samuel. He injured his groin last summer, and it proved to be a problem all year long. In fact, Samuel touched the ball just 10 times and played on 84 total snaps. A forgotten name to the “What did you do for me lately?” crowd, Samuel is someone to remember as he slides in drafts.
The other key name is Jahan Dotson. Selected with the No. 16 overall pick, the Penn State product is electric on the field. He has the largest catch radius for someone under 5’10” that I can remember. Watch his one-handed catch against Ohio State, and you’ll see exactly what I mean. He’s the best receiver to come out of Penn State since Chris Godwin and could be an absolute star in the NFL. He was one of my favorite players of the entire draft.
Dotson can play both in the slot and on the perimeter. It appears most likely we see McLaurin and Dotson on the perimeter with Samuel in the slot, and the rookie can be used on jet sweeps and in motion. McLaurin’s holdout during voluntary OTAs also allowed Dotson to gain more reps with the starting unit than a rookie might typically see, and, from all reports, he has been unguardable.
I don’t know if there will be enough volume to keep all three players fantasy-relevant every single week, and we haven’t even mentioned Antonio Gibson, Brian Robinson, J.D. McKissic, or Logan Thomas. McLaurin is the only player I have absolutely zero questions about when it comes to volume. The rest will likely battle it out for the first few weeks until we get a clearer picture of what Washington wants to do in 2022.
McLaurin’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 41, McLaurin is coming off the boards as the WR17 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him towards the middle of the fourth round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football rankings, McLaurin comes in as the WR16 and the 38th overall ranked player. While PFN’s rankings are a consensus, I’m actually even lower on McLaurin. He comes in as my WR19 and 42nd player overall.
It has nothing to do with talent, which should be abundantly clear. For me, it’s because there are a few players who I think have a bit more stability and that Wentz might not be a massive enough upgrade to make McLaurin a consistent player we dream of him being.
Volume won’t be a problem. I’ve got McLaurin projected for over 130 targets in 2022 with roughly 1,100 yards. It’s the overall quality of those targets that concerns me, as it’s more likely we see a repeat of last year than some ah-ha moment where everything clicks. (This is Washington, after all.)
It’s also worth expecting McLaurin to play a game or two with Heinicke as Wentz has a tendency to get banged up and miss a start from time to time. If we see a consistent McLaurin who sees 7+ quality targets a game, he’ll dominate. I’ll draft him as my WR2, but I’m not going out of my way to have a piece of this Washington offense. Ideally, McLaurin would be my third receiver, but based on ADP, it’s unlikely to happen without starting WR/WR.