One of the top wide receivers in the NFL and fantasy football, Cleveland Browns WR Amari Cooper projects to be an early pick once again as his 2022 fantasy outlook rivals some of the better players in the game. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Cooper’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Amari Cooper’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Cooper’s departure from the Cowboys to the Browns is just one move on the long list of offseason transactions that fantasy managers need to remember. All it took was a 2022 fifth-round pick and a swap of sixth-rounders for the four-time Pro Bowl WR to become the Browns’ new top target.
Still 27 years old, Cooper is in the prime of his career. He is one of the best route runners in the NFL and will be the red-zone target for whoever is under center (more on that in a bit). Cooper, a seven-year veteran, has totaled 7,076 receiving yards, 517 receptions, and 46 touchdowns since he was drafted out of Alabama with the fourth overall pick of the 2015 NFL Draft.
Copper is coming off a bit of a down year. In 2021 (15 games), the WR27 in PPR formats recorded 68 receptions on 104 targets for 865 yards with eight touchdowns, tied for the team-high with Dalton Schultz. It was the first season since 2017 where Cooper failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards. With that said, he still saw a respectable 19% target share, 31% WR target share, 25.7% of the air yards, and a career-high 19 red-zone targets.
Rather than a 1A/1B option as he was in Dallas, Cooper is the unquestioned primary receiver with Jarvis Landry now in New Orleans following his offseason release. Cooper could be in line for 25% or more of the team targets. But targets from who?
Cleveland has a mess on their hands of their own doing
Cleveland has no one to blame but themselves for going all-in on the mess that surrounds Deshaun Watson and the more than TWO DOZEN civil cases he faced. But the Browns will see Watson under center for them in 2022. However, it won’t be until Week 13 after he serves an 11-game suspension which was handed down by the league after their appeal. Until that time comes, Jacoby Brissett will captain the ship. That’s not good for Cooper.
When we last saw Watson in 2020, he threw for over 4,800 yards with 33 TDs to Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller. I do not deny the talent, but also, I am not penciling him in to be the top-six QB we last saw. When he steps on the field on Dec. 4 to face the Texans, because of course, it’s the Texans, it will have been 1,066 days since Watson played in an NFL game. Not only that, but he didn’t even practice with Houston last year. Is there rust that comes with this time off? I have no idea, but a slow start should not come as a surprise.
The Browns have been a run-first offense under Kevin Stefanski, rushing on 46% of their plays last season (the NFL average was 42%). While I don’t expect them to become pass-happy, you don’t make a blockbuster trade for a top-tier QB to have him hand the ball off 35+ times a game. However, it will likely not be until Watson is back we see this change take place. When Brissett is under center, expect a run-first approach, which hurts Cooper in the long run.
How the Browns’ depth chart impacts Amari Cooper’s fantasy projection for the season
While we wait to see how the QB play looks, Cooper leads what is a relatively unknown group of receivers. Donovan Peoples-Jones, Jakeem Grant, Anthony Schwartz, and Ja’Marcus Bradley combined for 108 targets in 2021. That’s four more than Cooper had in just 15 games, which was his lowest number of targets since 2017.
Schwartz appears to be garnering a lot of buzz out of camp as a potential breakout. He has also received first-team reps with Cooper and Peoples-Jones. Schwartz can bring a verticality to this offense which it desperately needs. Schwartz can be a sneaky contributor to this team with either QB under center and worth a flier in deeper formats.
Can David Bell continue the trend of rookie breakouts in 2022?
The Browns did address the position during the draft, selecting David Bell from Purdue with the No. 99 pick in the third round. Say what you want about his testing numbers (4.65 40-yard dash with a 33″ vertical and a 118″ broad jump), but Bell was sensational in college.
Bell had three seasons of high-level production, recording 232 receptions, 2,946 yards, 21 TDs, and a three-year average of a 25.7% reception share. In his 29 games at Purdue, Bell had a per-game average of 11.6 targets, eight receptions, 101.2 yards, and 0.72 touchdowns.
These are unheard of numbers — not just for a season, but for multiple years, despite having rather poor QB play supporting him. Bell is a route-running technician. His routes are loaded with head fakes, double-moves, jab steps, stutters, and shoulder rolls. You name it, Bell can do it. What Bell does at the catch point leaves you shaking your head and your jaw on the floor.
Bell can be the Jarvis Landry 2.0, serving as an intermediate route runner who gains separation through precision. That’s not an easy job to fill. Since 2014, Landry’s 423 catches and 4,895 receiving yards out of the slot lead the NFL. Yet, Stefanski has praised Bell for his “savviness.” Bell has the potential to be the go-to slot option. Thus, he will be on my radar as a late-round pick/bench stash.
Cooper’s ADP for 2022
Cooper is coming off boards as the WR24 in PPR formats with an ADP of 57 at the moment, placing him towards the end of the fifth round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football rankings, Cooper comes in quite a bit lower as the WR31 and 72nd overall ranked player, moving him to the end of the sixth round. While PFN’s rankings are a consensus, I’m actually even lower on Cooper. He comes in as my WR37 at 87 overall.
This has nothing to do with talent. Cooper’s skills as a receiver shouldn’t be questioned. The concern is that he has to spend 11 games at a minimum with Brissett and not Watson. Regardless of what you think of Watson off the field, on it, he is one of the best QBs on the planet. At least he was in 2020 when we last saw him in action.
Brissett will do an adequate job for the Browns to keep the ship afloat until Watson comes back from his suspension. Yet, from a fantasy standpoint, the damage will likely have been done by that point. I have a hard time seeing Cooper crack 900 yards unless everything breaks right. When Watson is gone, expect a very run-heavy offense. Once he’s back, then things open up, and Cooper will inevitably rise up the weekly ranks once Watson knocks the rust off.
For me, I can’t take Cooper at his current ADP, and odds are someone will like him more than I do and select him before he falls into a range that feels more comfortable.
Instead, I’d target guys like Gabriel Davis, Darnell Mooney, Jerry Jeudy, Adam Thielen, Allen Robinson, Michael Thomas, Elijah Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Brandon Aiyuk, Rashod Bateman, or even Drake London. All of those receivers mentioned are going later than Cooper based on ADP.