Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet took a nice step forward after largely playing behind Jimmy Graham as a rookie in 2020. With the Bears lacking in the wide receiver department behind Darnell Mooney, what is Kmet’s fantasy football outlook and ADP in fantasy drafts for the 2022 season?
Cole Kmet’s fantasy outlook for 2022
There’s nothing flashy about Kmet. He’s not going to blow you away with athletic ability (although he is fast for his size). He’s also not going to be a Darren Waller or George Kittle type that busts off big plays. For Kmet, it’s about volume.
Last season, Kmet commanded nearly an 18% target share. Free from the shackles of a completely washed Jimmy Graham, Kmet was top six in snap share amongst tight ends and had seven games with at least six targets.
In 2021, Kmet averaged just 7.1 PPR fantasy points per game. However, that’s actually an impressive average when you consider that he scored zero touchdowns. By way of comparison, Kmet averaged 2.4 ppg below Pat Freiermuth, even though both players had the same number of receptions (60) while Kmet had 115 more receiving yards. The difference was Freiermuth scored seven times.
If Kmet progresses further in his third season and sees even a normal touchdown rate, he has a chance to hit 10 ppg, which is about the threshold for a back-end TE1.
How the Bears’ depth chart impacts Cole Kmet’s fantasy projection for the season
The Bears’ front office should be embarrassed at the group of pass catchers they’ve provided for their sophomore starting quarterback. I want to like Justin Fields, but look at what he’s working with.
Mooney is a quality receiver, but he’s miscast as a WR1. Meanwhile, Byron Pringle is a WR3/4, and Equanimeous St. Brown is a WR4/5. Rookie Velus Jones Jr. is a 25-year-old special-teamer. Two of these men are likely to start in three-receiver sets.
Mooney will lead this team in target share, but there’s a good chance Kmet is second. While I certainly wouldn’t expect Kmet to light up the scoreboard, I’m willing to guarantee he finds the end zone at least once this season. If not, I’ll eat my proverbial hat.
The difference between a back-end TE1 and a mid-TE2 last season was less than one point per game. If you’re not drafting a tight end early, Kmet is a worthy fall-back option. He’ll have enough weeks where he’s productive enough to enter your lineup, and ideally, if you’re waiting on tight end, your other positions should give your lineup an advantage elsewhere.
Kmet’s ADP for 2022
Kmet’s ADP is around 150th overall. He’s being drafted as the TE16. This data just seems wrong. In my experience, Kmet is around the TE10-14 range. Regardless, Kmet is a great pick at his ADP.
There are two spots to take a tight end. You either want an elite one early or someone like Zach Ertz in the ninth round. If you don’t get either of these, just wait and take Kmet a couple of rounds after Ertz goes.