Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was better as a sophomore than as a rookie, but he was still far from being relevant for fantasy football. With the Dolphins making several big additions on offense to support their quarterback, what is Tagovailoa’s outlook for 2022, and should fantasy managers target him at his ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Tua Tagovailoa’s fantasy outlook for 2022
In modern fantasy football, almost every QB1 averages 20 fantasy points per game. Last season, 11 quarterbacks accomplished this feat (minimum 12 games played). Meanwhile, Tagovailoa averaged just 14 fantasy points per game as a rookie, improving to just 14.7 ppg as a sophomore.
Even if Tua surpasses that by a couple of points, that wouldn’t be enough to improve his fantasy outlook to where he’d be a QB worth targeting in 2022 fantasy football drafts.
While Tagovailoa’s fantasy numbers weren’t great last season, his underlying peripherals indicate a quarterback better than he gets credit for. Tua led all quarterbacks in deep-ball completion percentage and red-zone completion percentage. He was also top five when utilizing play-action.
Simply put, Tagovailoa’s 67.8% completion percentage was no fluke. He’s a very accurate quarterback and was accurate without a quality supporting cast.
How the Dolphins’ depth chart impacts Tua Tavoailoa’s fantasy projection for the season
The Dolphins really have done everything a young QB could ask for in the way of support. They upgraded their offensive line, signed Chase Edmonds (one of the better pass-catching running backs), and signed Cedrick Wilson Jr. — a significant upgrade on the medley of players they used as their WR3 last year. And yes, I saved the best move for last — trading for one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, Tyreek Hill.
Tua enters 2022 with no shortage of weapons. A game manager-type QB turning into a strong fantasy option overnight is not unprecedented. Just take a look at Alex Smith in 2017.
Smith was a career mid-to-low QB2, never averaging much more than 17 ppg. In 2017, he suddenly averaged 20 ppg and finished top three at the position. What changed? Well, in 2016, the Chiefs used a fifth-round pick on some kid named Tyreek Hill. By the end of 2016, Hill had become a starter, and entering 2017, he was ready to break out.
I’m not saying Tagovailoa can get to 20 ppg, but Smith did in 2017. Even if Tagovailoa tops out at around 18 ppg, that would still make him a low QB1 and one of the best values at QB in 2022 fantasy football drafts.
Tagovailoa’s ADP for 2022
Tua’s ADP sees him being drafted as the 16th QB off the board. In a typical single quarterback league, enough teams draft backup QBs that I would expect Tagovailoa to make a roster. He currently sits 16th at the position and 134th overall in our consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings.
If you wait too long on a signal-caller and teams have already drafted two before you’ve taken one, Tagovailoa is a solid fallback plan. However, you should be able to do better as at least 15 quarterbacks are definitively ahead of Tagovailoa.
In single QB leagues, I’m probably not drafting a backup. If I take Tua, it’s to be my starter. In 14-team leagues or Superflex formats, Tagovailoa is a much more appealing option. But in single QB leagues, you shouldn’t need him.