One of the top young players in the NFL and fantasy football, Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle projects to be an early pick for this upcoming season. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Waddle’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Jaylen Waddle’s fantasy outlook for 2022
It isn’t easy to overstate how good Waddle was in 2021. Paired with former Alabama teammate Tua Tagovailoa, their connection carried over from their college days. Seeing a staggering 140 targets, Waddle was not only the highest-targeted rookie, but he ranked 10th among all WRs in targets.
Thanks to this volume (25% team targets and 45% WR targets), Waddle broke Anquan Boldin’s rookie receptions record with 104 receptions. Playing in 16 games, Waddle received five or more targets in every contest. Amazingly, despite the target share, he posted over 100 yards in just one game. Waddle averaged 63.4 yards per game and posted 1,015 yards with six touchdowns.
While he ended the season as the WR14 in fantasy, Waddle was the WR8 from Week 6 on, thanks to 7+ targets in 10 of his last 11 games. From a fantasy aspect, the only drawback was the lack of explosive outings you would expect from someone with his speed and volume. However, Waddle was not used as a field stretcher. Of his targets, 71.7% came behind the line of scrimmage or less than nine yards down the field.
If this was 10 (or even five) years ago, this would have been an issue. Yet, with the “standard” scoring format in more leagues using full-point PPR, Waddle — due to his consistency and target floor — will be one of the higher-ranked wide receivers for fantasy in 2022. He carries a rare breed of athletic upside and locked-in volume.
Mike McDaniel could unlock a completely different Miami offense in 2022
Following the hiring of Mike McDaniel, Waddle has a new offense to work in this season. Miami needed a boost from an offensive-minded head coach.
Last season alone, they were 22nd in points, 25th in yards, and 29th in yards per play. They got that boost in multiple ways this offseason, especially with McDaniel, who comes from San Francisco, and the QB collective think tank. In an offense predicated on getting athletes in space, few players are faster on the field than Waddle. So long as Tua progresses into the QB we feel he can be, Waddle and Miami will be in for a sensational season.
How the Dolphins’ depth chart impacts Jaylen Waddle’s fantasy projection for the season
Remember how I just said there are few players faster than Waddle on the field? Well, it just so happens one of those now wears a Miami uniform. In one of the many shocking moves of the offseason, the Dolphins completed a trade with the Kansas City Chiefs for Tyreek Hill.
Previously, it seemed the vast majority of people wanted to comp Waddle to Hill. It almost seems fitting they are now teammates. Nevertheless, it does shake up the pecking order.
Waddle was going to be the undisputed No. 1 in Miami’s offense, but multiple Pro Bowls, All-Pros, and a $120 million contract would suggest Hill takes that role. After all, you don’t make a move like this not to utilize him whenever possible. Hill is the ultimate field stretcher, but what makes him unique is how he can take a five-yard crosser and turn it into a 65-yard untouched TD.
I don’t see Hill running away with this offense. Now he might from a yardage standpoint but only due to him being, well, Tyreek Hill. Still, Waddle will be closer than some think from a target share standpoint. This looks to be a two-receiver offense, pulling from what worked with the 49ers. Waddle and Hill represent one of the best WR duos in the NFL. While Waddle would have likely been a low-end WR1 previously, he’s still in the WR2 range with Hill in the equation.
Miami was not finished making upgrades, including one WR who I am bullish on
During free agency, Miami brought in Cedrick Wilson Jr. from Dallas. Wilson will take over the X from DeVante Parker, who has since been traded to New England.
Moreover, a name to keep an eye on for the “Deebo/wide back” role is Erik Ezukanma, a rookie out of Texas Tech. Drafted in the fourth round (pick No. 120), Ezukanma might have the best contact balance of any WR in this class and brings plenty of size (6’2″ and 209 pounds).
Ezukanma was essentially hand-picked by current Dolphins WR coach Wes Welker, who also played at Texas Tech. Welker was the one who worked Ezukanma out before the draft, and the coach was pushing for the team to draft him. He’s a versatile player who was schemed not only as a vertical threat but saw ample bubble screens and manufactured touches with the Red Raiders. He even had two rushing touchdowns last season while averaging 13.8 yards per carry. Remind you of anyone yet?
There is absolutely the chance Ezukanma doesn’t receive the volume to be fantasy relevant in 2022. Nevertheless, he is on every single one of my dynasty teams, and I’ll be drafting him in deeper redraft leagues this fall.
Waddle’s ADP for 2022
There are so many questions as to what the new-look Miami Dolphins will be like in 2022. Yet, that is not stopping Waddle fans from being very bullish on his fantasy football outlook despite Hill’s addition. We see this in Waddle’s ADP, which currently rests at 38 overall in PPR leagues, placing Waddle as the WR14 overall. For a quick comparison, Hill is the WR8 with an ADP of 19.
Undoubtedly, Waddle is a talented player. If this were March, I’d be sitting here saying Waddle is a top-12 receiver. But it’s not, and neither am I. Since Hill’s acquisition, the fantasy community has been higher than I am on Waddle. Sure, the connection between him and Tua was undeniable, and that absolutely will carry over into this year. But you don’t go out and trade for Hill and not expect him to both be the No. 1 target and have a negative impact on Waddle’s fantasy ceiling.
Waddle is my WR20 at the moment, and while I don’t see much substantial fluctuation coming between now and Week 1, it won’t be up if he moves in any direction. In all likelihood, we saw the ceiling of Waddle thanks to the lack of target competition. That couldn’t be any more different in 2022.
I do believe Tua can keep both Hill and Waddle active, but with Hill the primary target, Waddle has moved from a WR1 to a mid WR2. Sure, this all sounds negative. But Waddle is still a weekly must-start that sees even more volume in PPR formats. At any moment, he can break one open and should find wide-open zones thanks to concepts that force a DB to make an impossible decision.
For me, there are receivers who I feel have more upside, such as Courtland Sutton, my WR9, DJ Moore (WR15), Mike Williams (WR16), Brandin Cooks (WR17), and Allen Robinson (WR19). All of them are going after Waddle based on ADP. Sutton nearly 20 picks later, with Robinson 30 picks after Waddle. Waddle is supremely talented, but as the No. 2 target behind one of the best of his generation, I don’t know if Waddle can live up to the WR14 ADP.