New England Patriots running back Damien Harris is coming off a breakout 2021 season where he established himself as the Patriots’ RB1. Can Harris continue what he started last season and be even better this season? What can fantasy football managers expect from Harris in the 2022 season, and should they draft him at his ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Damien Harris’ fantasy outlook for 2022
After not playing at all as a rookie, Harris improved as a sophomore but merely finished as a fantasy RB3. In his third season, Harris provided fantasy managers with one of the best values in 2021. He totaled over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and averaged 14 PPR fantasy points per game, good for a mid-RB2 finish.
Let’s start with the good. Harris averaged 4.6 yards per carry and was remarkably reliable for fantasy managers. He scored double-digit fantasy points in 11 of his 15 games played. And he plays on one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL. The Patriots ran the ball 47.8% of the time last season, the seventh-highest rate in the league (it’s worth mentioning that number is a bit skewed due to the Wind Bowl in Week 13, where the Patriots attempted just three passes).
Now, for the not-so-good. Harris was incredibly reliant upon touchdowns. Of course, touchdowns are good. However, we want our running backs to be able to produce without them. Harris’ weekly floor was actually quite low last season. He just happened to score in 10 games.
During his career, Harris has averaged 16.3 ppg in games where he scores and just 6.1 ppg in games where he does not. Why? Because he’s a complete zero in the passing game. Harris has started 25 games the past two seasons. He has a total of just 28 targets. Harris averaged 1.1 receptions for 8.8 yards in 2021.
If Harris only scored 10 touchdowns last season instead of 15, he would’ve lost two ppg and finished as a mid RB3. For Harris to somehow improve upon his 2021 season in 2022, he would need an increase in volume somewhere.
How the Patriots’ depth chart impacts Damien Harris’ fantasy projection for the season
While I still believe Harris is the Patriots’ RB1, we cannot overlook what they did this offseason. The Patriots initially brought back James White to be their pass-catching back. Although he ultimately retired, it is very safe to assume Harris will not be seeing an increase in receiving work. Someone else will take that role. So, if he’s going to improve or even match last season, he will need to see an increase in rushing volume.
Well, New England drafted not one but two running backs in the 2022 NFL Draft. Granted, both were on Day 3, but it doesn’t exactly inspire a load of confidence in Harris. They drafted Rhamondre Stevenson in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft, and he played plenty as a rookie, finishing with 133 rushes for 605 yards.
Stevenson was just as effective as Harris. The Patriots have no allegiance to Harris or any running back. This has been their approach to the position for nearly two decades. From Corey Dillon to Laurence Maroney to Benjarvus Green-Ellis to Stevan Ridley to Shane Vereen to LeGarrette Blount to Dion Lewis to Sony Michel — none of these guys really mattered for more than three seasons.
The Patriots have always cycled through running backs relatively quickly, and it looks like Harris will be no different. Harris is in the final year of his rookie deal, and it sure doesn’t appear as though the Patriots have any intention of extending him. It would not surprise me at all if they turned to Stevenson — or one of Pierre Strong or Kevin Harris — as their lead back at some point.
The Patriots’ passing-down back
In addition to all of the above, the Patriots also signed Ty Montgomery. The former wide receiver is perfectly suited to take over the White role. We won’t have clarity on this before the season starts, but Montgomery would be fantasy-relevant if he had that job to himself.
It’s also possible he shares it with Stevenson. Or Stevenson just wins it outright. The point is, there are a lot of moving pieces here, making it tough to evaluate Patriots running backs.
Harris’ ADP for 2022
Harris’ ADP is around 72nd overall. He’s being drafted as the RB26. While this is the data I have from ADP sources, it doesn’t necessarily reflect reality. The data just can’t seem to keep up with Harris’ tumbling ADP.
Reports out of training camp that Stevenson might be the primary passing-down back and may take the RB1 job from Harris have resulted in their ADPs kind of converging. Harris is at risk of falling out of RB3 territory.
I am completely out on Harris. He is due for some serious touchdown regression. Although that’s baked into his price, what’s not necessarily baked in is the risk he flat out loses his job.
The Patriots’ actions suggest Harris won’t be on the team in 2023. They should have no qualms turning the backfield over to Stevenson, who is under contract through the 2024 season. Even if Stevenson becomes more expensive than Harris, I still prefer Stevenson. Harris would have to fall into the mid-RB4 range for me to be willing to take the shot.