Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin has been highly productive for three consecutive seasons. Coming off the second WR1 finish of his career, we know when healthy, Godwin will produce. But after a late-season ACL tear, what is Godwin’s fantasy football outlook for 2022, and should managers target him at his ADP in fantasy drafts?
Chris Godwin’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Godwin’s most efficient season was 2019, when he caught 86 passes for 1,333 yards, good for an average of 15.5 yards per reception. But I think his best season was set to be 2021.
Last year, Godwin caught 98 passes for 1,103 yards and five touchdowns in 14 games. He was on pace to have as many receptions (119) as his previous career-high in targets. Unfortunately, Godwin tore his ACL in Week 15.
Late-season ACL tears are the worst because they guarantee the player won’t be fully recovered until two seasons later. Godwin is going to play in 2022. It just won’t be in Week 1. The hope is Godwin avoids the PUP list and is back on the field early in the season, similar to how the Browns handled Odell Beckham Jr. to start the 2021 season.
Godwin can still be effective right out of the gate. As soon as he returns, he’ll be worthy of inserting into fantasy lineups. However, it would be bold to assume Godwin immediately becomes the top-15 wide receiver he’s been since 2019.
How the Bucs’ depth chart impacts Chris Godwin’s fantasy projection for the season
Just to give you an idea of what I was expecting this season, take a look at 2019. In that season, Godwin averaged 19.6 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR2. Meanwhile, Mike Evans averaged 17.7 ppg, finishing as the overall WR4.
The 2022 version of Tampa Bay’s offense is far more consolidated than previous versions. No longer does Tom Brady have to allocate significant targets to Antonio Brown or Rob Gronkowski. This projects to be a much more consolidated offense, with Evans, Godwin, and Leonard Fournette commanding over 50% of the opportunities.
The Bucs did sign Russell Gage, add Julio Jones, and select receiving back Rachaad White in the NFL draft. Gage is going to be useful, but he’ll be the clear WR3 when Godwin returns. If Gage does outproduce Godwin, it will be because Godwin is less than 100%. As for White, he does not impact the wide receivers at all.
Jones is 33 years old and is likely in Tampa to chase a title. His presence certainly doesn’t help, but he’s more of a problem for Gage than Godwin.
Last season, Godwin had a 21.3% target share, just 1% lower than his career-high in 2019. If he returns healthier than expected, Godwin has a very good chance to eclipse his career-high.
Godwin’s ADP for 2022
Godwin’s ADP has been a tricky one to figure out because of the lack of clarity on his health. He was widely expected to start the season on the PUP list, but now that seems unlikely. At the same time, he may be on the active roster but not active for games right away. Then, when he is active for games, he may be limited. All of this is to say there’s no definitive answer on what to do with Godwin at his ADP.
At around 58th overall, Godwin’s ADP is pretty reasonable. He’s being drafted as the WR21. It’s a fair price for a player that would be going in the top three rounds if fully healthy. Fantasy managers are getting a discount but still have to spend a decently high pick on him.
When fully healthy, I love Godwin. I want him on my teams. But I also don’t like drafting injured players. The discount on Godwin just isn’t enough for me. He is our consensus WR30. Godwin would have to fall considerably before we’d consider pushing the button.