Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is still the best QB in the NFL. But is he still the best quarterback in fantasy football without Tyreek Hill? What is Mahomes’ fantasy outlook for the 2022 season, and should fantasy managers target him at his ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Patrick Mahomes’ fantasy outlook for 2022
I believe Mahomes is the most talented QB to ever play the position. Mahomes has been a starting quarterback for four years, and in those years, his worst season saw him average 20.7 fantasy points per game. He’s finished as a top-six fantasy QB every year of his career and will never be the reason you lose.
With that said, Mahomes has been overdrafted for three straight seasons. Ever since his 5,000-yard, 50-touchdown rookie season, where he averaged 26.7 ppg, fantasy managers have treated Mahomes like he is the clear fantasy QB1. The thing is, up until this season, he has been. Yet, he still was a bad pick in fantasy football drafts due to his ADP.
In 2022, fantasy managers are finally pulling back on the Mahomes love. He’s still an elite QB1 and should be drafted as such, but the concerns (from a fantasy perspective) are mounting.
There’s been a concerning trend in Mahomes’ efficiency. His yards per attempt may have been unsustainable at 8.8 his first season as a starter, but that doesn’t mean it had to continue to decrease every successive year. He’s gone from 8.8 in 2018 to 8.3 to 8.1 to just 7.4 last year.
Mahomes had a disturbing number of weeks last season where he completely flopped. In 2020, Mahomes had at least 19 fantasy points in all but one game where he scored 12. However, in 2021, Mahomes scored under 19 fantasy points five times, including two games in the single digits. And it’s not easy to say things will get better this season.
How the Chiefs’ depth chart impacts Patrick Mahomes’ fantasy projection for the season
Both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce had already established themselves as elite players prior to Mahomes taking over as the starter. He’s never known a world without these two. Well, he’s about to.
The Chiefs traded Hill to the Dolphins this offseason, and that hole is impossible to plug. To try and fill the gap, the Chiefs signed JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and drafted Skyy Moore in the second round.
Can Patrick Mahomes be an elite QB1 without Tyreek Hill?
Mahomes doesn’t have a large sample size of games without Hill. In his career, he’s averaged 26.5 ppg in 58 games with Hill and 27.8 ppg in four games without him. The performances without Hill certainly should be encouraging, but it’s also very limited. We still have no idea how Mahomes will do over a full season without one of the best wide receivers in football.
While certainly nowhere near as vital, the Chiefs also lost Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson. Although just rotational WR3/4s, they’re still guys Mahomes had developed a rapport with.
Heading into the 2022 season, Mahomes will have to adapt to playing with a whole new set of receivers. His only returning receivers from last season are Mecole Hardman, who is also best described as a rotational WR3/4, and Josh Gordon, who just doesn’t matter anymore. Head coach Andy Reid will undoubtedly adjust the offensive game plan to life without Hill, but it won’t matter if Mahomes’ new weapons aren’t up to snuff.
With all that said, Mahomes is still one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy. He’s not the consensus QB1 anymore, but he’ll be fine. Mahomes actually had plenty of practice matriculating the ball downfield last season as defenses took away the deep shot to Hill.
Of Hill’s 67 career touchdown receptions, 51 have been from 20+ yards out. In 2021, seven of his nine touchdowns were 12 yards in distance or shorter. Of Mahomes’ 37 touchdown passes last season, 26 were from inside 20 yards.
Mahomes has already proven he’s capable of taking what defenses give him. Perhaps defenses will feel safer over the top with Hill gone, and Mahomes will be able to hit MVS deep a handful of times. There’s still plenty of upside in the league’s best QB.
Mahomes’ ADP for 2022
Despite losing Hill, fantasy managers don’t seem any less bullish on Mahomes as his ADP remains in the late-third/early-fourth round. Mahomes is still being drafted as the second quarterback off the board and as early as the early third round sometimes.
I just can’t get behind this. In general, I’m a “wait on QB” kind of guy. That is a general theme among PFN’s analysts. In our consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, Mahomes is the QB3 but sits 58th overall — well below his current ADP.
Personally, even if I wanted to take a quarterback early, I much prefer both Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson. Herbert goes shortly after Mahomes, but Jackson goes over a full round later. I also can’t justify taking Mahomes over the wide receivers that go around him.
Mahomes should still be a top-six fantasy quarterback. However, fantasy managers view him as the same guy he’s been the past four years despite a clear drop in his supporting cast. Weapons matter, and while Mahomes has the talent to succeed without them, his ADP is about two rounds higher than it should be.