Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins followed up a quality rookie campaign with an even better sophomore season and did this despite ceding the WR1 role to Ja’Marr Chase. With the Bengals having a young, ascending offense and one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, what is Higgins’ fantasy football outlook and ADP in fantasy drafts?
Tee Higgins’ fantasy outlook for 2022
Let’s start with the obvious. Higgins is really good at football. He absolutely has the talent and profile to be a WR1 in the NFL. The only reason he can’t be that in Cincinnati is because of the guy on the other side. The Bengals have an embarrassment of riches.
From a fantasy perspective, even as the WR2, Higgins is in a great position to thrive. He followed up a very good rookie season with an even better second year. Higgins’ target share increased from 19% to 24%, and his receiving yards per game went from 56.7 to 77.9. Most importantly, his PPR fantasy points per game went from 12.2 (high WR4 numbers) to 15.7 (high WR2 numbers).
In addition to improving his volume and efficiency, Higgins showcased a ceiling as high as anyone. As a rookie, Higgins had three games over 20 fantasy points, with his best performance of 22.5 fantasy points. In 2021, Higgins topped his best week as a rookie three times, including a 43.4 overall WR1 performance in Week 16 against the Ravens.
Higgins has proven to have a consistently high floor. He reached double-digit fantasy points in all but four games last season, which was a slight improvement over an impressive rookie campaign where he failed to reach double-digit fantasy points just five times.
How the Bengals’ depth chart impacts Tee Higgins’ fantasy projection for the season
The Bengals’ depth chart is fantastic for Higgins’ fantasy prospects. They have a young, ascending quarterback in Joe Burrow, who is already one of the best in the NFL, yet still not in his prime. Additionally, Cincinnati improved their offensive line this offseason. And most importantly, the Bengals have a very consolidated offensive touch distribution.
Of the Bengals’ total targets and carries, 58% of them went to Higgins, Chase, or Joe Mixon. Beyond those three, WR3 Tyler Boyd and TE C.J. Uzomah combined for a 15.8% touch share. Even though Higgins is behind Chase, his opportunity was the same as that of a WR1.
With that said, there is still room for Chase’s target share to grow. The truly elite WR1s push 30% target shares, and Chase was a hair under 24% last season (as was Higgins). However, even if Chase does see an increase in targeting, I don’t think it will come at Higgins’ expense. The reality is these two guys should combine to see 50% of Burrow’s targets.
Higgins could score more touchdowns this season
At 6’4″, Higgins is built to be a red-zone target. Chase scored 13 touchdowns last season to Higgins’ six. However, touchdowns are unpredictable, and six TDs is Higgins’ floor. He could easily reach double-digits this season. If that happens and this offense continues to progress as a whole, there’s a very realistic scenario where both Chase and Higgins are WR1s this season.
Higgins’ ADP for 2022
Higgins’ ADP is around the middle-to-late-third round. He’s being drafted as the WR12, which is, by far, the highest of the real-life WR2s. Typically, I would not advise taking a wide receiver that isn’t his NFL team’s WR1 this high. However, Higgins qualifies as an exception. In PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, Higgins is the WR14 and 36th overall, largely matching his ADP.
Chase and Higgins are more 1A/1B than WR1/WR2. The Bengals have a consolidated target distribution, and Burrow is capable of producing two WR1s. Last season, Higgins finished as the overall WR12 in ppg. He’s now entering his third season, where we can reasonably project even more improvement. Dare I say he’s being drafted at his floor?