One of the top wide receivers in the NFL and fantasy football, Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown projects to be an early pick once again as his 2022 fantasy outlook rivals the best players at his position. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Brown’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
A.J. Brown’s fantasy outlook for 2022
The Eagles came into the draft needing a receiver to pair with DeVonta Smith. And rather than drafting someone who could be the next Brown, they went out and got the real thing. Now locked into a four-year, $100 million contract, Jalen Hurts has his No. 1 target secured.
Brown has been simply electric since entering the NFL as a second-round pick in 2019. In his three years with the Titans, Brown hauled in 185 catches for 2,995 yards and 26 touchdowns, crossing the 1,000-yard mark each of his first two seasons. The Eagles haven’t had a wide receiver eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in a season since 2014 when Jeremy Maclin did it.
The WR33 last season, Brown saw a dip in his stats due to several minor injuries. However, he has been a more up-and-down fantasy asset over his career, finishing as a WR1 in 33% of his games but inside the top 24 in only 42%. In the end, it comes down to volume.
Brown has yet to clear 110 targets in a season, finishing 30th in targets each of the last two seasons. Yet, he is one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL per target (2.30 PPR/target — fourth in 2020). What Brown lacked in opportunities, he makes up for in after-the-catch ability. That should serve him well in Philadelphia.
A.J. Brown’s fantasy upside is directly tied to Jalen Hurts’ progression
Personally, I am all-in on Hurts being a starting QB in the NFL. I feel all the traits are there, and he just needs the one thing NFL teams and fans seem to lack: patience and time. The only way Hurts was going to get a fair shot was if the Eagles focused on getting him more weapons, and I’d say Brown counts as a weapon.
There is the concern Brown will see his value diminish in 2022 as the Eagles are a run-heavy offense. In fact, from Week 8 and on, they were No. 1 in the NFL in rushing percentage at 59%. Over this same stretch, Tennessee was an even 50/50 split. For the team the Eagles had, this worked. Nick Sirianni adapted their system to work with their current personnel. That’s what coaches are supposed to do.
Expect to see another shift in 2022
Last season, before the Eagles switched due to personnel, they were very pass-happy, throwing on 61% of their plays in neutral game scripts through Week 6. Hurts was on pace for a silly 589 attempts. This more pass-forward approach is what I expect from the Eagles in 2022.
While I do not expect Hurts to lead the league in attempts, we could see him exceed 500 throws. He should have done so last year but missed Weeks 13 and 18. Yet, he still was on a 17-game pace of 490 attempts. This would be more volume than Brown saw in either of his healthy seasons (2019 or 2020).
Even at 475 attempts, a 0.88 reduction in Hurts’ per-game average from last season, Brown would be sitting around 118 targets if we give him a flat 25% target share. That would be a career-high by a dozen targets.
The Eagles didn’t give Brown a massive contract not to make him the focal point of their offense. I’m not discounting Brown for fantasy in 2022. He is a high-end WR2 who will have weeks inside the top five for the position. Add in one of the five easiest schedules, and Brown should continue to thrive in Philly.
How the Eagles’ depth chart impacts Brown’s fantasy projection for the season
The Eagles were busy this offseason, as were most organizations. Most of their work was done during free agency as the Eagles re-vamped their defense. They signed LB Haason Reddick on a three-year, $45 million contract. Other defensive additions included CB James Bradberry and LB Kyzir White. Philly also re-signed Fletcher Cox, Derek Barnett, and drafted Georgia DT Jordan Davis, who lit up the NFL Combine. Add in CB Darius Slay and rookie LB Nakobe Dean and the Eagles have a top-tier defense.
On offense, it all starts up front with one of the best offensive lines in the entire league. There is no true “weak spot” on this offensive line. If anything, it got deeper following the selection of Nebraska center Cam Jurgens. Jason Kelce hand-picked Jurgens, which is as massive an endorsement as you can get. The No. 4-ranked offensive line in DVOA should be right there once again in 2022.
Philadelphia has the playmakers to compete
Brown was not the only addition to the wide receiver room as the Eagles signed former Indianapolis Colt Zach Pascal. He’ll play more in the slot, where he had the bulk of his success. The rest of the room consists of Year 1 standout Smith, a potential trade candidate in Jalen Reagor, Quez Watkins, and Greg Ward. If anything, the No. 3 target will be TE Dallas Goedert.
Also, keep an eye on Devon Allen. An Olympic hurdler for Team USA, Allen has incendiary speed, which Philly will use in over-post concepts. They’re a staple concept in the NFL for every offense, but few, if anyone, has someone of his speed on the field. We saw that exact thing happen in Week 2 of the preseason. While not a fantasy-relevant player in all likelihood, that simply creates more space for Brown or Smith when the safety needs to bail to cover the deep ball.
When it’s all said and done, Brown is a field stretcher and the player who will receive manufactured touches. Smith is the possession chain-mover, and Goedert is the middle-of-the-field weapon, with Watkins, Pascal, Ward, and Allen serving as complementary options. Add in the pass-catching prowess of Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell, and the Eagles should be a dangerous offense when they choose to open it up. They’re my pick to win the NFC East. If they do, Brown will have had a massive year for fantasy.
Brown’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 28, Brown is coming off the boards as the WR11 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him right at the beginning of the third round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football rankings, Brown comes in quite a bit lower as the WR17 and 40th overall ranked player, moving him into the fourth round. While PFN’s rankings are a consensus, I’m higher on Brown and have him in line with his current ADP, ranking him as my WR11, just behind Michael Pittman Jr. as my 28th overall ranked player.
It comes down to two things. Do you believe in Hurts’ abilities as a QB to distribute the ball, and what will be the offensive philosophy of the Eagles in 2022? If you are down on Hurts and view him as a replacement-level QB and that the Eagles will have a run-heavy offense, Brown might not be right for you at his current ADP.
However, if you think Hurts will take a step forward and Brown’s acquisition leads to a more balanced, if not passing-forward approach, then there should be no concerns. If it is not plain to see at this point, especially after taking highly of Hurts since he was drafted, you’ll know I’m in on Brown for fantasy in 2022. If the Eagles’ offense does surpass expectations, Brown could have a career year even without hitting double-digit touchdowns again.