Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. took a big step forward last season after a very poor rookie season. Now entering his third NFL season, is Pittman set to continue his upward trajectory? What can fantasy football managers expect Pittman’s outlook to be in 2022, and should you target him at his ADP in fantasy drafts?
Michael Pittman Jr.’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Very little about Pittman’s prospect profile suggests he should ever emerge into a strong fantasy asset. He was a four-year college player with a late breakout age and was already 23 years old as a rookie.
In his first season, Pittman underwhelmed. He caught 40 passes for 503 yards and a touchdown. As a result, I wasn’t exactly bullish on him as a sophomore. (Especially not with Carson Wentz as his quarterback.)
On the contrary, Pittman wound up taking a nice step forward in his second season. He caught 88 passes for 1,062 yards and six touchdowns, firmly establishing himself as the Colts’ WR1. Pittman’s 14 PPR fantasy points per game resulted in a low WR2 finish.
Pittman is never someone I would’ve pegged as being one of “my guys” prior to the 2020 season. Nevertheless, he’s a perfect example of how opinions can change, especially once NFL production is put on the table. Entering 2022, I want Pittman anywhere and everywhere. He has all the makings of a classic third-year explosion. Let’s get into why I believe Pittman will be a WR1 in 2022.
How the Colts’ depth chart impacts Michael Pittman’s fantasy projection for the season
Aside from the natural progression of a young receiver getting better with each successive year, there are a lot of things working toward Pittman’s benefit this season. One of the biggest catalysts behind my support of Pittman is the Colts’ new quarterback, Matt Ryan. Although 37 years old and well past his prime, Ryan is still a capable QB. He’s certainly an upgrade on Wentz. What I really love about this for Pittman is the history of how well Ryan’s WR1s have produced.
From 2008-2012, Roddy White averaged 96 receptions for 1,314 receiving yards. From 2014-2019, Julio Jones averaged 103 receptions for 1,564 receiving yards. In 2013, when Jones broke his foot in Week 5, Harry Douglas went on to finish with 85 receptions for 1,564 receiving yards. Calvin Ridley corralled 90 receptions for 1,374 yards in 2020. Ryan’s WR1 has never failed to reach 1,000 yards. Yes, I’m counting Kyle Pitts’ 1,026 yards in 2021.
In addition to Pittman being in a favorable spot with Ryan, he’s also in a favorable spot in general. The most important factor in fantasy production is volume. We want wide receivers with as little target competition as possible.
In just his second season, Pittman reached the 25% target share threshold. The only meaningful addition the Colts made to their WR corps was drafting Alec Pierce in the middle of the second round. Behind Pittman will be the oft-injured Parris Campbell, 2019 UDFA Ashton Dulin, and Pierce. Tight ends Mo Alie-Cox, and rookie Jelani Woods are not threats either. Pittman is a legitimate threat to lead all wide receivers in target share.
The only downside when it comes to Pittman is that the Colts are still a run-first offense with an elite offensive line. Last season, they ran the ball 48.9% of the time, the fifth-highest rate in the league. They’ve been in the top 10 in run rate for the past three seasons. So while Pittman’s target share may be massive, the total pie won’t be as large.
At the same time, Ryan has averaged 608 pass attempts per season over his past 10 seasons. Thus, I’m optimistic this team will pass a bit more with him at the helm, allowing Pittman enough overall volume to be the WR1 I expect him to be.
Pittman’s ADP for 2022
Pittman’s ADP is around the early fourth round in 12-team leagues. While that seems a bit late, he is being drafted as the WR13. Clearly, fantasy managers are wise to Pittman’s potential this season.
I would take Pittman in the front half of the third round if I have to. That’s how good I think he will be this season. And it’s not as if Pittman is going behind a slew of wide receivers I like him more than. It’s really a positional thing.
There are a handful of running backs, a tight end, and a quarterback with earlier ADPs than Pittman that I would prefer him over. In PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, Pittman ranks 28th overall as the 10th WR off the board.
If you find yourself picking toward the back end, you are in the prime position to draft Pittman at cost at the end of the third round. However, even if you pick earlier, Pittman is a worthwhile selection at any point once you reach the third round.