Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has failed to live up to expectations through his first two NFL seasons. With more competition and a weaker offense as a whole, what is Edwards-Helaire’s fantasy football outlook for the 2022 season, and should managers target him at his ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s fantasy outlook for 2022
I must preface this by saying I fell into the landing spot trap in 2020. Visions of 2017 Kareem Hunt flashed across my brain, and I vaulted Edwards-Helaire into the mid-first round, selecting him ahead of … gulp … Derrick Henry. I don’t regret it, though, because the knowledge I gained from that error was more valuable.
Edwards-Helaire has now posted two incredibly underwhelming seasons, despite playing in one of the most explosive, high-scoring offenses in the league. You hear the term “running backs don’t matter” thrown around a lot. While it’s mostly true, the reality is a replacement-level talent like CEH is just not going to perform as well as an actually good running back like Hunt.
If anything, the first two years of CEH’s career have proven he may not even be replacement-level. Darrel Williams is the epitome of replacement-level, and he’s proven to be more competent than Edwards-Helaire.
CEH averaged 13.5 PPR fantasy points per game as a rookie and 11.8 ppg as a sophomore. The Chiefs were sixth and fourth in scoring over those two seasons. Yet, in the same exact offense and same exact situation, Williams was superior as the lead back.
In the 10 games CEH missed over his first two seasons, Williams averaged 14 ppg. While Williams did not produce when Edwards-Helaire was active, he proved to be better in the lead-back role. This sparks the all-important question of why? For those who believed in CEH, the difficult reality to accept is Williams is simply a better football player.
CEH was supposed to be this quality receiving back. After all, he posted a 10.2% target share in college. Well, not only has CEH flopped as a pass catcher, he flat out lost the third-down/passing game role to Williams. In 2021, Edwards-Helaire averaged 2.3 targets per game compared to 3.35 for Williams. And Williams had a sub-40% snap share in seven games. With Williams now gone, is CEH’s outlook for 2022 improved?
How the Chiefs’ depth chart impacts Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s fantasy projection for the season
After four seasons with the Chiefs, Kansas City elected not to re-sign Williams. Once that happened, we knew they’d either bring in someone to compete with Edwards-Helaire or spend a Day 2 pick on a running back.
The Chiefs decided to sign Ronald Jones, and their only draft selection was Isiah Pacheco in the seventh round. This team could’ve signed Melvin Gordon, Leonard Fournette, or drafted a Day 2 running back. While Jones appeared to be a threat to CEH’s workload, his playing time throughout the preseason suggests he is more likely to get cut.
While it may seem like CEH’s role is safe, the team likes Jerick McKinnon and Pacheco. If CEH continues to struggle, either one could take some of his job away.
There’s also the issue of passing-down work. Edwards-Helaire was billed as this great pass catcher coming out of college. But nothing about how head coach Andy Reid used Edwards-Helaire last season suggests they believe in him as a pass catcher. After running 18.2 routes per game as a rookie, that number dropped to just 13 routes per game in his second season.
It’s possible the Chiefs elect to go with McKinnon as their passing-down back. Reid has a very long history of not really caring who his third-down back is as long as it’s someone other than his early-down back.
By way of example, we saw Spencer Ware come off the field for Charcandrick West in 2016. Then, in 2018, after Hunt established himself as the clear lead back, Ware was used as the third-down back. In 2019, LeSean McCoy was the passing-down back for Damien Williams. And the past two seasons, it’s been Williams replacing CEH.
There’s a very real scenario where Pacheco and Edwards-Helaire share early-down work, and McKinnon operates as the passing-down back, which would be a nightmare for fantasy. Unfortunately, I don’t see CEH as a desirable fantasy asset in 2022. Now entering his third season, he’s had sufficient opportunity to prove worthy of the Chiefs drafting him at the end of the first round in 2020. They may be ready to prepare to move on. Edwards-Helaire looks to be more of an RB3 than an RB2.
Edwards-Helaire’s ADP for 2022
Edwards-Helaire’s ADP is around 68th overall. He’s being drafted as the RB25. Based on our consensus rankings, you won’t be getting much of CEH this season. He would have to fall considerably as we have him as our RB33. I’m slightly ahead at RB31 but still well below ADP.
Any running back in the Chiefs’ offense has upside. This offense is too prolific for running backs not to find production. However, it’s shaping up to be a true three-man committee. Combine that with CEH not being anything more than a replacement-level talent, and the upside for CEH specifically feels like a bit of a mirage. Simply put, I’m out.