Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb is widely considered one of the best pure runners in the NFL. Since becoming the Browns’ lead back in 2019, Chubb has been a floor-based fantasy football RB1 every season. Can fantasy managers expect more of the same from Chubb in the 2022 season? Let’s dive into Chubb’s What is Mixon’s fantasy outlook and review where his current ADP sits heading into 2022 fantasy football drafts?
Nick Chubb’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Players I’ve always loved as real-life players: Chubb. Players I’ve never wanted in fantasy football: Chubb. The Browns’ lead back is the primary example of how fantasy differs from reality.
Since 2019, Chubb has had an ADP at or near the first round. He’s given fantasy managers seasons of 15.9, 17.3, and 15.4 PPR fantasy points per game. All three of those seasons put him inside the top 10. So, why am I never interested?
Chubb’s perception is always greater than reality. It is close to impossible for a running back to have overall RB1 or league-winning upside without receiving work. Over the past three seasons, Chubb has averaged about 90 rushing yards per game and a tick under 10 touchdowns per season. In 2020, he averaged 89 rushing yards per game and scored 12 touchdowns in just 12 games played. Yet, he didn’t even sniff 20 ppg.
That’s the issue with Chubb. Fantasy managers are taking him very early in fantasy drafts and the odds of him ever posting a 20 ppg season are as close to 0% as you can get.
How the Browns’ depth chart impacts Nick Chubb’s fantasy projection for the season
Last season, Chubb was truly incredible as a runner. He was fourth in yards per touch at 5.8, third in evaded tackles per touch at 37%, and fifth in yards created per touch at 3.65. The man is a wizard running the football. That just doesn’t pay the bills in fantasy.
Despite being the clear lead runner, Chubb had just a 51.7% snap share last season. He averaged a mere 10.4 routes run per game. Even in a season where Kareem Hunt played just eight games, Chubb saw no increase in receiving work. In fact, his 12.4 receiving yards per game were his lowest since his rookie season.
Even if Kareem Hunt gets hurt, Chubb is unlikely to see an increase in receiving work
When Kareem Hunt was out, it wasn’t Chubb as the receiving back; it was D’Ernest Johnson. Chubb averaged 1.78 targets per game. He and Johnson both finished the season with 25 targets. Johnson is a third-string running back.
Chubb is now entering his fifth NFL season and third with this head coach. He will turn 27 years old this year. His usage is not going to suddenly change. He’s averaged under 200 receiving yards per season and just 2.08 targets per game in his career.
Additionally, the Browns traded for Deshaun Watson and signed Jacoby Brissett to be their starter for however long Watson was to be suspended (which we now know is 11 games). Now, the Browns will have a quarterback more mobile than Baker Mayfield, which will only further decrease the running backs’ involvement in the passing game.
Without receiving work, Chubb’s ceiling is capped at 16-17 ppg. That makes him an RB1, but one without any real upside.
Chubb’s ADP for 2022
Chubb is being drafted as the RB10 with an ADP in the middle of the second round. This is pretty reasonable as it is Chubb’s lowest ADP since his rookie year. Currently, Chubb is sitting as the RB16 at 29th overall in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings.
I’ve made my feelings on Chubb pretty clear. He’s a great running back but a floor pick in fantasy. Of course, every player has a price. If Chubb falls toward the Round 2/3 turn, I’m probably in. At that price, a 16-17 ppg season from Chubb is plus value. Even in the event Chubb has a down year, he’s no longer being drafted as an RB1. I like Chubb a lot more as my RB2 than my RB1.
With that said, I’m still typically looking for more upside around where Chubb goes, and that comes in the form of the wide receivers. It would take a pretty decent tumble for me to be willing to draft Chubb, given the caliber of wide receivers available in the second and third rounds of fantasy drafts.