Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry has been one of the most dominant running backs over the past three and half seasons in fantasy football and the NFL. After a foot injury derailed what would have been the best season of his career, what is Henry’s fantasy outlook, and where does his current ADP sit heading into 2022 fantasy football drafts?
Derrick Henry’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Ever since the Titans committed to Henry as their lead back over the second half of the 2018 campaign, he’s been an elite fantasy force of mass destruction. Henry posted top-five overall finishes in fantasy points per game in 2019 and 2020. Additionally, he was the overall RB1 in 2021 over his eight games played before breaking his foot on Halloween.
Henry’s 85.7% opportunity share was second amongst all running backs. He was an elite tackle-breaking force last season, with a 38% evaded tackles per touch rate (most of them broken tackles since Henry isn’t exactly making defenders miss — not his style).
So far, everything I’ve said about Henry has been sunshine and rainbows. However, it’s not all positive for the power back. No running back has amassed more touches per game over the past three seasons than Henry’s 24.5.
He’s coming off an injury with a high recurrence rate — although that’s less likely now that he has a full offseason to rest — and is 28 years old. By no means should fantasy managers view Henry as bulletproof. The wheels can fall off quickly.
How the Titans’ depth chart impacts Derrick Henry’s fantasy projection for the season
Entering the 2021 season, my position on Henry was that he lacked overall RB1 upside because he didn’t have the requisite receiving game work. We know it’s simply not possible for a running back to lead his position in fantasy points without receiving stats.
While no Christian McCaffrey, Henry was on pace for career-highs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in 2021. He averaged 2.5 receptions per game and 19.3 receiving yards per game. That’s nothing special, but it’s enough to propel him into the overall RB1 conversation.
The Titans downgraded their pass catchers
This offseason, the Titans released Julio Jones (not that he mattered last season anyway) and traded A.J. Brown to the Eagles. Tennessee’s only major additions to their offense were trading for Robert Woods, 30 years old and coming off a torn ACL, and drafting Kyle Philips on Day 3. They lost D’Onta Foreman to free agency, and their only meaningful RB addition was fourth-round rookie Hassan Haskins. This team is poised to once again lean heavily on Henry.
In 2021, the Titans ran the ball 50.7% of the time, the second-highest rate in the league. They ran the ball on 51.8% of plays in 2020 and 49.8% in 2019.
Henry may not average 24.2 ppg again like he was when he got hurt last season, but another year over 20 ppg is a near certainty. As long as Henry’s body doesn’t betray him, he remains an elite RB1 worthy of being one of the first five selections off the board in 2022 fantasy football drafts.
Henry’s ADP for 2022
Henry is a consensus top four running back by ADP. There’s an argument to be made for him as high as second overall. Given his performance last season and how he was on pace to finish as the overall RB1, I would not fault anyone for selecting him once Jonathan Taylor was off the board.
At the same time, if his age, usage, and injury scare you away, that’s fine, too. There are plenty of elite options available at the spots where you can take Henry. Regardless, if you want Henry, you will need to pick in the top half of the first round and possibly even the top four.
As discussed, the lack of pass-catching usage is a concern for Henry’s ceiling in PPR leagues. He ranks sixth among RBs and 10th overall in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings.