Amon-Ra St. Brown’s dynasty fantasy football value really is all over the place entering the 2022 season. His rookie campaign was going to meet the receiving-yards threshold regardless, but he really finished the season on an absolute tear. The question is how fantasy managers contextualize St. Brown’s finish. Is it sustainable? Or was it a product of circumstance? How well we answer these questions will determine how dynasty managers should value St. Brown going forward.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s dynasty profile for 2022
Let’s start with the obvious. St. Brown’s rookie year was phenomenal. Yes, it was nowhere near what we saw from guys like Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson, but everything is relative. St. Brown was a Day 3 pick on a bad team where he wasn’t expected to go and didn’t start right away. Nevertheless, his role increased during the season.
From Weeks 1-10, St. Brown averaged 8 PPR fantasy points per game. He wasn’t even remotely close to fantasy relevance. Yet, Week 11 is where things really started to change. Prior to Week 11, St. Brown never played more than 78% of the snaps in a game. After that, he became a starter and never played fewer than 84% of the snaps.
St. Brown’s first two games were more of the same, but in Week 13, something clicked. He saw double-digit targets in each of his final six contests. He caught at least 8 passes for at least 73 yards in every game, finding the end zone in all but one of them. St. Brown averaged 25.2 ppg over his final six contests, trailing only Cooper Kupp amongst all wide receivers.
Let’s dive into the context surrounding St. Brown’s scorching finish to his rookie season and help figure out how fantasy managers should value him in dynasty leagues going forward.
Fantasy projection for St. Brown
We know St. Brown was never supposed to get the volume he did over the second half of the 2021 season. We also know St. Brown excelled once he did. The latter part is what makes him intriguing, as he’s proven himself good at football.
As experienced fantasy managers know, we’ve seen players flash in stretches before only to revert back to a lesser role once circumstances change. The circumstances surrounding St. Brown’s breakout are important to consider.
Taking his rookie season as a whole, he averaged 14 ppg and was a mid WR3. Over his first 11 games, he was startable as a fantasy WR3 just three times. Over his final six games, St. Brown was an absolute must-start. So, what changed?
For better or for worse, St. Brown’s spike in production can be directly tied to injuries to T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift. Here are St. Brown’s splits relating to Hockenson and Swift:
- 9.55 ppg in 11 games with Hockenson; 25.2 ppg in five games without Hockenson
- 11.8 ppg in 12 games with Swift; 22.4 ppg in four games without Swift
- 12.8 ppg in 13 games with Hockenson and Swift; 21.6 ppg in three games without both
The conclusion is inexorable: St. Brown’s increase in volume and production coincided directly with injuries to Hockenson and Swift. Now, this doesn’t mean St. Brown will suddenly be cast aside when everyone is healthy. It just means we need to acknowledge his production over the final six games of the 2021 season is unsustainable.
What is St. Brown’s future beyond 2022?
St. Brown is entering his sophomore season. Fantasy managers need not concern themselves with his second contract. He still has three more years on his rookie deal remaining.
St. Brown had a good rapport with Jared Goff last season, and Goff is back for another year. Is he the Lions’ quarterback of the future? Probably not. But with St. Brown’s age and a proven ability to produce, dynasty managers should not let the Lions’ quarterback situation impact their assessment of his value too much. They, and he, can afford to wait for the Lions to figure things out at quarterback long-term.
What can fantasy managers expect from St. Brown?
This is the all-important question. St. Brown could very well be at the peak of his dynasty value entering the 2022 season. He also could be a 22-year-old second-year wide receiver on the ascent.
No one is valuing St. Brown as a WR1, but he did prove capable of producing like one last season. Of course, he’s not going to average 25 ppg in 2022 (or likely ever), but that’s not the bar here. If St. Brown can become a 16-18 ppg guy at some point over the next 2-3 years, then he’s currently undervalued.
As a Day 3 pick, St. Brown succeeding beyond the WR3 range will make him an outlier. While we must acknowledge that, we also shouldn’t necessarily dismiss St. Brown over his draft capital, especially after he gave us proof of concept on an NFL field.
I find St. Brown to be a very tricky evaluation. I’m definitely on board with trading him in the right deal, but it needs to be more than speculative. If you’re going to move a receiver this young who has proven himself already, you need established players with guaranteed production.
Ultimately, fantasy managers should expect St. Brown to be a productive fantasy receiver in 2022. He probably won’t be a WR1, but he’ll almost certainly be at least a WR3. Where he ends up falling in that range will determine whether he was better off staying on your team or being used as a trade chip.