With the 2022 NFL Draft less than three weeks away, our weekly Pro Football Network news and rumors mailbag takes a look at the strategy behind the New Orleans Saints’ two first-round picks, the trade prospects of Day 1, and the conundrums of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ first overall pick.
Our weekly mailbag offers readers the opportunity to ask their questions and get a thorough insight into the NFL’s most important topics. This week, the mailbag hits on Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett’s landing spots, the Philadelphia Eagles’ first-round strategy, and more.
NFL News and Rumors: Why did the Saints acquire pick Nos. 16 and 19 from the Eagles?
What do you think of the saints strategy of trading up with a team and still picking behind them twice?
— Jazer (@Jazerbeam) April 8, 2022
For those living under a rock, the Saints and Eagles agreed to massive pre-draft trade on Monday. The Saints traded the 18th, 101st, and 237th overall picks in this year’s draft, plus a 2023 first-round pick and a 2024 second-round pick, to the Eagles for the 16th and 19th overall picks in this month’s first round.
The Saints now have two first-round picks in the middle of Day 1. Some have questioned why the team would trade notable draft capital for an extra first-round pick in the middle of the round, sight unseen. The logic isn’t black and white.
The Saints are at a crossroads between contending and rebuilding. They are looking to build in the wake of Sean Payton’s retirement, and they badly need long-term answers at two premium positions: QB and LT. Trading for an additional first-round pick could immediately help the Saints fill those holes. New Orleans could also use those two picks to trade up into the top five (in theory) if there is a prospect at either position that they absolutely covet.
The Saints could stay patient and let a QB like Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder or Mississippi’s Matt Corral fall to them at No. 16. From there, they could draft an intriguing blindside blocker like Northern Iowa’s Trevor Penning at No. 19. If they covet someone like Pickett or Liberty’s Malik Willis at QB — or Alabama’s Evan Neal or NC State’s Ikem Ekwonu at left tackle — they could use 16 and 19 to pounce into the top 10 and snag them.
Saints could theoretically trade up again
As PFN mentioned in our breakdown of the pre-draft trade from the Saints’ perspective, the New York Giants are the most likely trade partner for the Saints. New Orleans’ NFC South rivals, the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons, both need long-term answers at QB as well. The Panthers own the sixth overall pick, and the Falcons own the eighth overall pick. The Giants hold the choices in front of both franchises at No. 5 and No. 7. If the Saints want to jump either team for a QB, the Giants would be their likely partner, and the combined value of 16 and 19 would probably do the trick for either selection.
The Panthers also need a long-term answer at left tackle, so it’s possible that New Orleans could jump them for Ekwonu or Neal, although the strategy of such a move would be a bit perplexing from a value standpoint.
The second part of the question, with the Eagles picking at No. 15 and No. 18, is less relevant than it might appear on the surface. Philadelphia is in great shape at offensive tackle with three starting-caliber blockers at the position. If the Eagles wanted a QB, aggressive GM Howie Roseman would trade up for his guy. Their positioning in front of the Saints hardly matters unless both teams negotiate with the Giants for the No. 5 pick for a QB and New York foolishly deals with a division rival to get a slightly better trade return.
The Eagles and Saints only have an immediate common need at safety, and Philly has never drafted the position in the first round.
Will teams move around the board on draft day?
With such a light QB draft, are you expecting any big draft trades, or do you expect teams to stay put?
— Patrick Hoffman (@Pattycake1997) April 8, 2022
This is a great question because this draft has very few parallels in recent years. The most comparable outlook is probably the 2013 NFL Draft, where EJ Manuel was the first and only QB taken in the first round (16th overall by the Buffalo Bills). This class will undoubtedly have multiple first-round QB picks, largely due to the league’s newfound Wild West-like wheeling and dealing of the position. Yet, there is a similar consensus that the class is weak at the position. Multiple QBs will be “over-drafted” in the first round if selected.
There were five trades during the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft. None of the teams that traded up selected QBs. Oddly enough, the Bills, who moved back from No. 8 in a trade with the then-St. Louis Rams, took Manuel at No. 16.
So, history says a weak QB class will have less moving and shaking than other classes, which are typically anchored by strong QBs at the top. There are eight teams with two first-round picks heading into this year’s draft (NYG, NYJ, HOU, PHI, NO, DET, KC, and GB), so in theory, one or two of those teams could combine their assets to move up and take a blue-chip player in the top five or 10 instead of taking two premium prospects. However, in a draft without many consensus blue-chip players, that strategy might prove foolish and, thus, unlikely to happen.
It wouldn’t be shocking to see fewer trades in the first round this year, especially considering how many pre-draft swaps have already taken place. Recently, pre-draft first-round trades have been all the rage, and in-draft swaps have been less frequent in recent years. For perspective, there were three in-draft first-round trades last year and four in 2020.
Can the Jaguars generate any trade interest in the No. 1 pick?
As of today, do you see any team moving up to #1? If not, who is YOUR #1 pick in the draft?
— Danton Thomas, Ed. S (@DantonThomas) April 8, 2022
The chances of a team trading up to the No. 1 overall pick are slim to none. The reason for the lack of interest in the first overall pick is twofold: 1) There’s no consensus premium QB for teams to fight over, and 2) The justification for the price of the first overall pick isn’t there if you’re not trading up for a QB.
Taking the QB class out of the conversation, there isn’t even a consensus top player in the draft. Teams would be negotiating against ghosts for the right to draft a player who isn’t even considered the “be all, end all” of the class. That’s just bad business.
From the Jaguars’ perspective, they are picking first overall for the second consecutive year. Last year, Jacksonville drafted their presumed franchise QB, Trevor Lawrence, so their need/want to draft first overall is probably less than enthusiastic. They would probably love to trade the pick. Nonetheless, unless they are receiving a justifiable package for the top selection, it would be unwise to deal it just to pick up additional middling assets.
The Jaguars are clearly going to favor the trenches, and rightfully so, with the top overall pick. Doug Pederson comes from the Andy Reid tree, which follows the philosophy of building a team from the lines out. Pederson has his QB. Now, he needs to protect him or get a player who can pummel the opposing team’s signal-caller.
Jaguars likely to target EDGE at No. 1
The Jaguars have left clues for their strategy throughout the offseason. They franchise-tagged Cam Robinson for a second consecutive offseason, keeping their veteran left tackle in place. While they brought in one-year wonder Arden Key to rush the passer, they still have plenty of flexibility to nab a top-tier EDGE prospect.
While taking a non-consensus pass rusher with the top pick seems risky, the Jaguars would benefit from selecting Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson, Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux, or Georgia’s Travon Walker. The Jaguars are expected to favor hybrid looks with a 3-4 base, and all three players can move in space. Thibodeaux and Hutchinson are more natural fits for EDGE spots, while Walker is a unique 5-technique who can be moved around up front.
The issue with the EDGE position is that hybrid players have a much higher boom-or-bust rate than natural defensive ends. That could be why the Jaguars end up selecting Walker over Hutchinson and Thibodeaux, who have better college production and more public hype.
Hutchinson appears to be the favorite at No. 1, but Walker is a dark horse. Drafting an offensive tackle like Neal or Ekwonu would be smart. The Jaguars could put the player at right tackle for a year and then move him to the left side if Robinson moves on in 2023. That said, the Jaguars have said multiple times that they plan to sign Robinson to a long-term deal. Consequently, taking a right tackle at No. 1 probably doesn’t have the juice the Jaguars are searching for.
Long story short: I’d take Neal at No. 1, but I think the Jaguars will take Hutchinson.
Where will Kenny Pickett be drafted?
Where will my boy Kenny Pickett land please tell me it's not Washington or the Giants?
— Justin W. (@NFLGimpy) April 8, 2022
Well, I think the Giants are highly unlikely. The Commanders are probably a bit stronger of a possibility, but that’s also unlikely. If you’re looking for a landing spot for Pickett, head south, namely the NFC South. The Panthers, Falcons, and Saints cluster all missed out on Deshaun Watson last month, and all three teams need a long-term answer at QB.
The general feeling around this year’s QB class is that all the prospects will need time to operate NFL offenses. Pickett, though, is seen as the most NFL-ready, for better or worse. At 24 years old, he probably has the highest floor of the QB prospects, though his ceiling is the most debatable.
The Panthers at No. 6 seem to be his most likely landing spot, based on his Temple recruiting background with head coach Matt Rhule. Still, the Saints, who just traded for an additional first-round pick, have the ammo to jump ahead of Carolina and grab a QB after a theoretical blockbuster swap with the Giants at No. 5. Pickett would be a strong fit for coordinator Pete Carmichael’s offense. He’s a pocket passer with excellent pocket mobility and awareness.
But, but, his hands…
While the “small hands” debate has become a superficial topic on social media, most NFL execs and scouts that PFN has spoken with over the past few months don’t seem to care. Remember, Pickett was a standout in the winter weather of Pittsburgh. In the NFC South, he would be subject to warm-weather games. The occasional rainstorm would be negated by his trademark use of gloves on both hands. If he were to head to the Saints, he’d be in a dome for eight to nine games a year. Per a league source, the same setup would happen with the Falcons, who are also interested in Pickett.
Pickett could become Arthur Smith’s new Ryan Tannehill in Atlanta. While Pickett would probably sit behind Marcus Mariota for a year, he could at least push the former No. 2 pick in training camp as a rookie and serve as his immediate replacement if he struggles. While the Saints have the best roster of the three NFC South squads, Atlanta could be Pickett’s best shot at long-term success, as he would be replacing Matt Ryan, who has a somewhat comparable skill set.
Which consensus first-round pick could fall to Day 2?
What expected first rounder is most likely to drop to the 2nd round?
— Cuse Kyle (@kylecuse315) April 8, 2022
I have two answers for this, primarily due to need and positional value, as opposed to the actual talent level of the prospects. Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum and Georgia linebacker Nakobe Dean appear to be the most hyped prospects with a clear path for a drop. Linderbaum and Dean are both first-round talents in this class, but the weight of the center and linebacker positions are wonky.
Linebacker has become a devalued position over the years in the mold of the running back spot. While teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers have continued to show an affinity for LBs, most squads are choosing to put their efforts and assets into the defensive line and the secondary. For better or worse, the center spot has become an afterthought in the first round. Over the past 10 drafts, only seven centers have been selected in the first round.
So, while Dean and Linderbaum are incredibly talented, there’s a strong chance that one or both could drop. The same could be said for tweener playmaker Devin Lloyd, the Utah linebacker who has been a playmaking machine in the Pac-12.