On Friday, March 18, 2022, the Texans finally traded Deshaun Watson. I would say this ends the year-long Watson saga, but it only ends the part of wondering where he will play. Saddle up folks, because this is gonna be a long one. What are the fantasy football ramifications of Watson joining the Cleveland Browns? Let’s dig in.
The Deshaun Watson trade
As of Thursday night, just about everyone “in the know” in the NFL said it was down to the Falcons and Saints for Watson. He called the Browns and told them he was out. However, Watson had a change of heart overnight and agreed to waive his no-trade clause to join the Browns.
In exchange for Watson and a 2024 fifth-round pick, the Texans received the Browns’ first-round pick in each of the next three drafts, a 2023 third, and a 2024 fourth. It’s a massive haul, but the Browns now have their franchise quarterback.
Watson’s legal situation remains unresolved
This one isn’t going to be as straightforward as it seems. Yes, everyone on the Browns gets a bump because Watson is a massive upgrade over Baker Mayfield. The problem is the other part of the Watson saga — the uncomfortable part of all this.
Watson still faces 22 civil lawsuits ranging from harassment to sexual assault. To date, Watson has not been given any official punishment. Although Watson didn’t play a snap in 2021, he was a member of the active roster the entire season. The Texans just voluntarily chose to make him a healthy inactive every week.
Watson could still receive a suspension
Entering the 2022 season, Watson’s outlook for playing is improved after a grand jury declined to indict him for any crimes. At this point, we can be confident that Watson is not going to face any criminal penalty. However, as the NFL has shown us, legal guilt is not a prerequisite for a suspension.
Ben Roethlisberger and Ezekiel Elliott are examples of the NFL suspending a player without any official finding of wrongdoing. The way the NFL handled the Ray Rice situation also brings into question the NFL’s consistency in handling personal conduct policy violations.
All this is to say Watson may play 17 games in 2022. He also may play zero. I don’t think the latter is particularly likely. For starters, the NFL will likely take into account the fact that Watson sat out the entire 2021 season. It also seems unlikely the Browns would’ve made this move if they believed Watson was at serious risk of being suspended for the entire season.
With that said, I also think him getting nothing is equally unlikely. Anywhere from a 4-8 game suspension seems realistic. The Browns are going to trade Mayfield. That means they may be starting a backup quarterback for up to half the season, which will undoubtedly impact the fantasy values of Browns players.
Fantasy impact of Deshaun Watson trade on Amari Cooper
It’s been quite the week for Amari Cooper’s fantasy value. The Browns’ new WR1’s fantasy value chart looks like the win probability graph at the end of a back-and-forth basketball game.
In Dallas, I valued Cooper as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3. Upon his trade to the Browns, I was out. He was going to be nothing more than a high WR4, just like Odell Beckham Jr. With Watson in town, well…see previous section.
Cooper is the clear alpha WR1 in Cleveland, and now Watson is his quarterback. The former Cowboy and Raider is still very good at football. He has legitimate WR1 upside, and I will have him ranked as a mid-WR2, at worst, depending on what happens with Watson. Cooper’s season-long fantasy value will be heavily associated with how long Watson is suspended, if at all.
From a dynasty perspective, this is great news for Cooper. Although the Browns can get out of Cooper’s contract after this season with no dead cap, they do have him signed through 2024. Cooper is still only 28 years old, and now he’s looking at three years with Watson. Even if Watson is suspended for all of 2022 (again, unlikely), he’ll be able to play in 2023 and beyond, making Cooper a sneaky buy-low in dynasty leagues.
Fantasy impact of Watson trade on other Browns
The Browns’ roster isn’t exactly filled with fantasy greatness. Last season, Nick Chubb was the only reliable fantasy asset on this team. They traded Beckham midseason, and he didn’t gain any fantasy relevance until he joined the Rams. Jarvis Landry was worth a spot on fantasy rosters, but he was merely a WR4, averaging 11.4 PPR fantasy points per game.
So what will Watson’s impact be on the other Browns players?
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt
The running backs are going to be used the same way. Chubb and Kareem Hunt will be the usual dynamic duo with Chubb as the power back and Hunt as the satellite back.
They both will get a bump up due to the Browns’ offense simply being better with Watson. This is a team that will score more points now, which is good news for everyone.
David Njoku
A real sneaky winner here could be David Njoku. I was never a fan of Njoku as a prospect, but he’s super athletic and has improved as a blocker, which will earn him more snaps. The Browns also used the franchise tag on him and designated Austin Hooper as a post-June 1 cut.
Harrison Bryant still exists, but Njoku is going to be the Browns’ primary tight end this season. He will be a popular late-round tight end target in redraft leagues. As for dynasty leagues, if you believe in his talent, he’s a buy. If you don’t, then wait for the dust to settle a bit on the Watson trade and try and move him based upon his speculative breakout.
The Browns’ WR2
Mayfield was not really capable of supporting two fantasy-relevant wide receivers. He did it with Beckham and Landry for a couple of seasons, but neither was anywhere near a WR1. Watson, on the other hand, can certainly support a fantasy WR2/3 alongside WR1/2 Cooper. I will be very interested in the Browns’ WR2. However, I do not believe that man is currently on the roster.
Right now, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Anthony Schwartz are the two guys behind Cooper. I don’t buy either of them as anything more than a real-life rotational WR3/4. DPJ reminds me of another triple initial guy: Marquez Valdes-Scantling. MVS pops up every few weeks with a splash play and a big game. Fantasy managers rush to pick him up and then he doesn’t produce. That’s Peoples-Jones.
Schwartz is entering his second season, so it’s too early to completely write him off. However, we do have historical data on the importance of rookie production. Schwartz caught 10 passes for 135 yards. That’s not good enough. History suggests that any receiver failing to reach 300-350 receiving yards as a rookie will never be anything more than a rotational WR3/4.
My guess is the Browns spend a Day 2 pick on a wide receiver. This is a deep rookie class with several prospects that profile as very solid NFL wide receivers. That’s exactly what the Browns need. They could also sign Will Fuller, who has been rumored to want to sign wherever Watson is. If it ends up being Fuller, we’ll address that when it happens. For now, just know that the Browns’ WR2 is a player of interest, once we know who he is.