We’re now technically on the fourth day of NFL free agency. I say technically because players have been “signing” since Monday, but that’s neither here nor there. With several of Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s potential landing spots no longer on option, what are our latest predictions for where MVS might end up this season?
Top predictions for free agent Marquez Valdes-Scantling
One of the more surprising aspects of 2022 free agency was the hot market for Valdes-Scantling. Now entering his fifth season, MVS has a career-high of 38 receptions as a rookie in 2018 and a career-high 690 receiving yards in 2020. I guess it’s worth noting he led the NFL in yards per reception that season at 20.9.
MVS will turn 28 years old during the 2022 season. He’s a downfield threat mostly used as a decoy who occasionally pops the big play. After playing out his entire rookie contract with the Packers, MVS is set to move on with the hopes of securing a more prominent role in an offense.
Indianapolis Colts
Several teams in need of wide receivers have already signed or traded for someone else, taking them out of the likely running for MVS. The Colts, however, are not one of those teams.
This is a team very much in need of receivers to help Michael Pittman Jr. Sure, they have Parris Campbell, but he can’t stay on the field. In three seasons, Campbell’s played in just 15 out of a possible 49 games.
T.Y. Hilton was widely expected to retire, but recent reports suggest he’s going to play another year. However, the Colts have yet to re-sign the free agent. I like Ashton Dulin and Mike Strachan, but let’s not pretend the Colts are going to pass up on free agent wide receivers to push either of these guys.
Enter MVS. We know he can stretch the field, which can help open things up for Pittman. The Colts would be better served signing a more complete receiver opposite Pittman, but the top options are mostly gone at this point. As a result, they may have to settle for the one-dimensional field stretcher.
San Francisco 49ers
I’m not quite sure about this one. Not in the sense that the 49ers aren’t interested. They are. I just don’t really see the need. Nevertheless, they are one of Valdes-Scantling’s likely landing spots, so let’s dig in.
The 49ers’ top two wide receiver spots are occupied by Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Last season, they largely used Jauan Jennings as their WR3, but he only saw 38 targets. In fact, no 49er outside of Samuel, Aiyuk, and George Kittle saw higher than a 7.3% target share.
If the 49ers sign MVS, I’m not quite sure what they would do with him. He’s never playing ahead of Samuel or Aiyuk. At best, he would be the fourth option in the passing game. The 49ers ran 11 personnel (3 WR sets) just 48% of the time, one of the lowest rates in the league. If MVS wants a larger role, San Francisco just doesn’t make much sense.
With that said, the 49ers still have about $6 million in salary cap space. MVS is expected to command something in the range of three years, $24-28 million. The 49ers can certainly afford it, but I still wouldn’t call this landing spot likely.
Chicago Bears
I hesitated to include the Bears as the third prediction for Valdes-Scantling to land in free agency because I don’t buy it. The Bears already signed a former Packer wide receiver in Equanimeous St. Brown. They also inked Byron Pringle to a one-year deal.
The Bears have already locked up their WR depth. Pringle has proven to be a reliable NFL WR3 and St. Brown is a fine rotational WR4/5. With Darnell Mooney as their top receiver, they need a WR1 or WR2 — someone to start opposite Mooney. Simply put, MVS is not that guy.
At the same time, it’s possible the Bears can’t really do any better. They seemed destined to spend a Day 2 pick on a rookie wide receiver, but that won’t preclude them from signing a veteran like MVS. With the Bears, Valdes-Scantling would have the biggest role of his career and undoubtedly be a starter based on their current personnel.
MVS would give Justin Fields a true downfield threat, which certainly doesn’t hurt a young quarterback. The team utilized Marquise Goodwin in that role last season. At the very least, MVS is a clear upgrade.