Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns appear to be headed separate ways after a tumultuous 2021 campaign. The former No. 1 overall pick won’t see a second contract in Cleveland. Meanwhile, two of his 2018 NFL Draft contemporaries are flourishing in their environments. Is Mayfield an NFL Draft bust, or would we be having a different conversation had he not played injured last year?
Baker Mayfield: 2018 NFL Draft bust?
The honest answer here is probably on a fencepost. While Mayfield hasn’t lived up to the reputation that proceeds a top overall pick, he looked to be on his way to leading Cleveland to new heights before 2021.
In 2020, he posted the 10-highest EPA(expected points added)/CPOE(completion percentage over expectation) composite in the NFL. He was also 10th in QBR during that time. He looked like he was headed in the right direction. Heck, he even set records during his rookie season!
The punchy Oklahoma product always had a flair for the dramatic, and his Progressive commercials are entertaining. He looked well on his way to being a franchise quarterback, even if he was never going to be viewed as one of the top-five signal-callers in the league. He was a quarterback the Browns could win with.
Until he wasn’t.
A disastrous 2021 season clouds Mayfield’s future
Mayfield injured his shoulder in Week 2 against the Houston Texans. Although it was against the Chiefs and Texans, Mayfield ranked fourth in the league in EPA/CPOE composite through two games.
He performed poorly over the next few weeks. From Weeks 3-6, he never posted a QBR higher than 44.1. The Browns QB didn’t play in a win over the Denver Broncos in Week 8. After that game, Mayfield was asked if he’d play against the Steelers in Week 9. He said, “If I’m going to hurt the team, I’m not going to go.”
Cleveland scored 10 points against the Steelers that week, but Mayfield followed it up with his cleanest performance of the season against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Of quarterbacks with at least 400 gradable plays, Mayfield ranked 23rd in the EPA/CPOE composite and 27th in CPOE. The only quarterbacks more scattershot were Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence, and Zach Wilson.
Mechanical breakdowns caused inaccuracy in 2021
The fine gentlemen over at The Orange and Brown Report did a deep dive into the mechanical breakdowns Mayfield faced.
Sequencing is important for quarterbacks. The eyes, shoulders, and lower body must all work together throughout the progression. It’s something that Mayfield struggles with when his internal clock is sped up. But his most significant issue is not correctly “setting the hallway.”
The area Mayfield struggles with is a decently familiar sore spot for right-handed quarterbacks. When throwing to the right, they often have their lower body lie to them. Their feet and hips aim too far toward the middle of the field, while their shoulders and eyes attempt to accurately deliver a pass to the right side of the field. That can cause passes to float high and behind, a dangerous combination.
Mayfield has never been the cleanest quarterback mechanically, but he had enough arm talent to get away with it. But after his shoulder injury, he fell into worse habits than he already had and tried writing checks his right arm couldn’t cash.
He’s not a lost cause. Mayfield must become obsessed with the details of his mechanical process, but he can be more than serviceable at his next stop if he cleans them up. But any quarterback selected first overall that doesn’t make a second contract with his original team will be considered a bust by most — it’s the way of the world.
2018 and 2020 changed the way QBs are evaluated
Not every rare quarterback prospect will develop like Josh Allen. Much like steak, if you miss a step and don’t completely sear it, you could get an E. coli infection.
But the Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert types will be more highly coveted than the more traditional pocket passers such as Mayfield. We saw last season just how valuable Allen’s rushing ability was for the Buffalo Bills. He almost ended up as the team’s leading rusher for the season.
Jackson won an MVP award in Year 2 with the Baltimore Ravens. He’s even more of a unicorn athletically than Allen, and it’s not like he is close to being replicable. The change in overall philosophy will be with guys like Allen and Herbert. The big-armed quarterbacks with the ability to make plays on the hoof will be coveted.
Heck, even the Browns themselves were down to Mayfield and Allen in their evaluation process. They ended up siding with us Twitter fools terrified of Allen’s accuracy issues and inability to throw anything other than a triple-digit fastball. The 2018 NFL Draft will live in infamy for Cleveland, but their process was fine. The results didn’t follow.
But if we took the 2018 class and time-traveled them to 2022 as prospects that haven’t taken an NFL snap, Cleveland probably drafts Allen. Trends move fast in the NFL, and we’re entering another era of big-armed, athletic, and raw quarterback prospects. Joe Burrow throws a wrench in all of that as a bit of a throwback, but he was so advanced that he made for a straightforward evaluation.
One look at the quarterback ecosystem of the AFC will tell you to bet the house on the upside, or you don’t have a chance at a conference title.