If you asked us on Saturday what our prediction and landing spot was for Rob Gronkowski regarding the 2022 NFL free agency period, we’d have a completely different answer for you than what you will find below. With Tom Brady announcing that he is returning to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a 23rd season, the situation around Gronkowski has become a lot less murky.
But that’s only if he’s not strongly considering retirement and if the Buccaneers can afford to get him under the cap. If they can’t, what teams make sense for the 33-year-old free agent?
Predictions for free agent Rob Gronkowski
We know that based on Gronkowski’s history, if the environment he’s in doesn’t feel like a good fit, he’d much rather watch the NFL from the comfort of his home than suit up and be on the field. This couldn’t have been more evident when he decided to walk away from the game in 2019 instead of continuing to play for New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick.
And although a big reason for him walking away from the game was because of the laundry list of injuries he suffered, he returned and helped lead the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl. In 2021, he ranked seventh among tight ends in receiving yards (802) and touchdown catches (6). He did this despite missing five games with a rib injury, which indicates plenty of gas left in the tank when Gronkowski is on the field.
That should help his free agent market. Without Brady, a few teams made sense, but none really popped out and signaled a perfect landing spot for Gronkowski. While that list remains the same even with Brady in the mix, the realistic predictions for the four-time first-team All-Pro free agent become a bit more clear.
Gronkowski’s best landing spots
Let’s take a look at that list, beginning with two options other than the Buccaneers that might make sense for Gronkowski as a landing spot when the NFL free agency period officially opens on Wednesday at 4 PM ET.
Tennessee Titans
If Brady didn’t come out of retirement, this was the team that made the most sense when it came to predicting Gronkowski’s landing spot for the 2022 season. And who knows, maybe it will still be where Gronkowski suits up this year (more on that when we talk about the Buccaneers).
The Titans likely realize that they cannot realistically win a Super Bowl relying on running back Derrick Henry. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill must step up and make plays when needed the most, and unfortunately for the Titans, he hasn’t necessarily done that.
The Titans’ top three tight ends are Geoff Swaim, Anthony Firkser, and MyCole Pruitt. That’s not great. Adding Gronkowski to an offense featuring Henry, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones would be an instant upgrade to the tight end position and add another dimension Tennessee’s offense has been missing.
Arizona Cardinals
Gronkowski played college football at the University of Arizona, so this would be a sort of homecoming for PFN’s 34th-ranked free agent and fourth overall tight end. The addition of Gronkowski to an offense led by QB Kyler Murray and featuring DeAndre Hopkins would keep opposing defensive coordinators up late at night, especially in the NFC West.
The Cardinals also have Zach Ertz at the tight end position, and they just signed him to a long-term contract ahead of free agency on Sunday. Adding Gronkowski opposite him in a double-TE set could make the Cardinals’ offense lethal.
Arizona knows they have some work to do to satisfy Murray and keep him happy. With about $5.5 million in salary cap space at the time of publishing, Arizona would have some work to do but could look to bring in Gronkowski on a cap-friendly one-year deal.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If Gronkowski returns for the 2022 NFL season, the Buccaneers are the most realistic prediction for his landing spot when free agency opens. Brady was the only person who could lure Gronkowski out of retirement in 2020, and now that Brady is set to return, it would surprise absolutely no one if Gronkowski followed suit.
The only hurdle that Tampa Bay would have to overcome is Gronkowski’s estimated salary. Spotrac projects a one-year, $8.3 million deal, similar to the $8 million contract he signed before the 2021 season. And as of the time of publish on March 14, the Buccaneers have an estimated $-3,244,139 in salary cap space.
Can they make enough moves to get under the cap, afford Gronkowski, add other free agents, and still be competitive in 2022? We’ll find out soon enough.