There’s rarely a dull moment when it comes to the NFL. Typically, the weeks leading up to free agency are a slow period. Not this year. In the latest of a slew of big trades, the Cowboys sent Amari Cooper to the Browns for a yoyo and a lollipop. How does this impact the dynasty fantasy football value of the Cowboys teammates he leaves behind?
Amari Cooper Trade: Fantasy impact on the Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys made it well known they were not bringing Cooper back for the 2022 season. Unsurprisingly, they lost all their leverage. They traded Cooper to the Browns for a fifth-round pick and a swap of sixth-round picks. Calling this a trade is generous. I look at it as more of a donation.
With Cooper now in Cleveland, he leaves behind a significant void in the Cowboys’ passing attack. Let’s discuss the fantasy impact Cooper leaving Dallas will have on his former teammates.
CeeDee Lamb’s fantasy value after the Cooper trade
The biggest beneficiary of the Cooper trade is undoubtedly Lamb. The Cowboys’ third-year wide receiver is coming off a 79-1,102-6 campaign. While Lamb disappointed relative to expectations, it was still a step forward from his rookie season.
Entering 2022, Lamb is the unquestioned alpha WR1 for Dak Prescott. Lamb’s 20.4% target share last season was just 1.6% higher than Cooper’s. The reality is the two were more 1A and 1B than 1 and 2. Beginning this season, Lamb will be the clear WR1, and whoever lines up opposite him will be definitively behind him.
Look for Lamb’s target share to increase this season as he continues his ascent as a pass catcher. I’m expecting at least 25%, if not closer to 30%.
For dynasty managers, feel confident in Lamb being tethered to Prescott and an excellent Cowboys offense for the foreseeable future. The Cowboys will likely extend Lamb by the end of the 2023 season. This wide receiver corps belongs to him now. Treat him like a clear top-eight dynasty wide receiver.
The Cowboys’ other pass catchers
As things currently stand, Lamb is the only relevant wide receiver under contract. Michael Gallup and Cedrick Wilson are both free agents. Neither is a lock to return, either.
Michael Gallup’s fantasy value after the Cooper trade
Let’s start with Gallup, who is coming off a late-season ACL tear. The Cowboys like Gallup a lot. He’s just two years removed from a 1,100-yard season. He is a very good Z receiver and, if healthy, the Cowboys would do well to bring him back. That seems to be where things are headed.
For the past several weeks, reports from insiders projected Gallup to return to Dallas. The Cooper trade only adds credence to that theory. If Gallup is ready to go by Week 1 (which is far from a certainty), his fantasy value will only increase.
I expect Gallup to sign a three- or four-year deal. That will lock him into the WR2 role opposite Lamb (pending what the Cowboys do in the NFL Draft). Even if they do draft someone on Day 2, Gallup will almost certainly play ahead of that player in 2022. Gallup has fantasy WR2 upside.
Cedrick Wilson’s fantasy value after the Cooper trade
Wilson is entering his fourth season as a seldom-used WR4/5. He will turn 27 years old this season yet has just 837 career receiving yards.
Wilson put up two 100-yard receiving games in 2021 and proved he can be a useful NFL receiver. With that said, even if the Cowboys do re-sign him, I don’t ever expect him to be a starter on purpose. When Wilson filled in for an injured Gallup or Cooper, he played well enough. But once everyone was healthy, Wilson returned to a pure backup role.
If the Cowboys bring Wilson back and draft a wide receiver, he will once again play that WR4 role. Wilson remains a dynasty asset worth rostering, but he’s nothing more than a WR5/6. Dynasty managers would be best served seeing if anyone out there is overvaluing Wilson. His perceived value is likely higher than his actual value.
Dalton Schultz’s fantasy value after the Cooper trade
One of the biggest winners of the past week has to be Dalton Schultz. The Cowboys’ starting tight end finished as the TE5 last season, averaging 12.5 PPR fantasy points per game. He did that while splitting time in half the season with Blake Jarwin.
Now, Jarwin has been released, and Cooper is in Cleveland. Schultz won’t have to share his role with anyone next season, and 18.8% of the team’s targets just left.
Schultz saw a career-high 104 targets last season. His 16.4% target share was almost as high as Cooper’s. Depending on what the Cowboys do at wide receiver, Schultz could be looking at an increase to around 20%. At worst, his target share should remain about the same.
Dynasty and redraft managers alike should be interested in Schultz. He’s only 26 years old this season and has just two years of significant playing time on his resume. The Cowboys slapped Schultz with the franchise tag, but they have every intention of working out an extension, which would link him to Prescott for the entirety of his prime. Schultz is a clear TE1 in both dynasty and redraft.
Impact of the Cooper trade on Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard
The one area of the Cowboys’ offense that is largely unaffected is the running game. With Prescott, Lamb, Schultz, and likely Gallup returning, the Cowboys’ offensive philosophy is not going to drastically change with the Cooper trade.
Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard will continue to share this backfield with Zeke operating as the primary back. Consider Elliott a declining RB1 and Pollard an RB3 that just needs a chance. I plan to do a much deeper dive into Elliott’s 2021 season in an article later in the offseason.