Just like that, Week 2 of the NFL season is now officially behind us. As we expected, there was an enormous overreaction in the NFL odds market after the first week of football. After one performance, bettors raced to the window to back teams that were successful in their opening games. Unfortunately for some, the second week was less impressive than the first. The Patriots and the Cowboys continued to roll, while the Dolphins and Giants showed us that they might be competing for the first overall pick next year.
NFL Odds: The PFN Rundown
The main theme of Week 2 was injuries. There were some critical injuries to starting quarterbacks like Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees. As we reported earlier today, both players will miss significant time. Even with all of this volatility and injury, the Pro Football Network betting team was able to accomplish our most successful week so far. Here is a look at how each handicapper did.
Ben Rolfe: Totals Expert
After coming off the best week of any PFN handicapper during Week 1, Ben followed that performance up with a 3-2 week. To give you an idea of the insight our totals expert brings to the table, here is his analysis for the Giants and Bills game.
The Bills defense is good enough they should be able to limit the explosiveness of Saquon Barkley. Meanwhile, the Giants defensive woes could be masked by the sometimes erratic nature of Josh Allen. The last matchup between these two teams saw just 34 points scored. Look for this to be an attritional game dominated by the running games of both sides.
What happened during the game? Well, it was ugly, and Buffalo was able to limit Barkley. The game stayed under and the run game was heavily leaned upon.
2019 Record: 7-3
Jason Sarney: The Prop Master
Like we said last week, the props market is one of the more difficult to handicap. There are so many factors to take into consideration that it is difficult to post a winning record. Unless your name is Jason Sarney. Jason bounced back from a small losing week, to have a huge 4-2 record. His prop plays were featured in his weekly six-pack article.
Jason hit the NFL odds market with a number of over rushing props. He had the over for Ezekiel Elliot, Sony Michel, and Josh Jacobs. His only considerable loss was with Evan Engram failing to get to 72 yards.
2019 Record: 8-6
Chris Smith: Handicapping Specialist
Our expert handicapper Chris Smith has continued to impress with a 4-2 record this week. He released his plays in his weekly article on PFN. With excellently named “Tommy Teasers” and “Shots in the Dark plays,” our handicapper has been able to bring profit two weeks in a row. Also, as a member of our All-Access Pass, you get access to live in-play bets on Twitter, where Chris gave out this gem.
3Q OVER 10.5 points (+120) – Eagles and Falcons
Chris also gave a spot-on analysis of the Miami and New England game.
“The one way I believe you can find value in the Patriots on Sunday is by taking them in the first half at -11.5 points. My system predicts the Patriots to be leading by between 10-14 points at halftime, which means we have established a slight edge in this spot.”
How many points were the Patriots up at halftime? 13!
2019 Record: 7-4
James Aguirre: The Volatility Expert
James has been the most profitable PFN handicapper so far. If you are not following his Hot Plays and Smart Fades, you are legitimately losing out on money. This week he went 5-1-1 on his selections. James uses a mixture of analytics and situational handicapping to make his selections. He hit a number of overs, combined with a number of games against the spread! His only loss was Kyler Murray‘s prop bet.
2019 Record: 7-1-2
Against the Spread Podcast Picks
Jason Sarney and I look over the weekly lines and NFL odds for every single game on the board. This week, I put out five official podcast plays. They went 4-1, with the only loss being the Bengals forgetting to show up against San Francisco. The best part about these plays? The Against the Spread podcast is completely free to everyone! Find it wherever podcasts are available!
2019 Record: 6-4
The sheep and the herd
The public was able to make quite a bit of money this week. The biggest play that money came on would have to be the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas opened as a -4.5 favorite on the road against Washington. The public pounded that number to -6 and proved to be on the right side. The Cowboys won 31-21 in Washington.
The public also won big with the Kansas City Chiefs on the road against Oakland. The number opened at -4 but was bet up to -7. It was touchy in the first quarter, but Patrick Mahomes lit up Oakland in the second quarter scoring 28 points. The Chiefs defeated the Raiders 28-10. The public cashed their tickets.
The last big public play was the New England Patriots -19.5 against Miami. Both the sharps and squares played this game, with nearly 90% of the money coming in on the Patriots. They easily covered this number against Miami and the books took a pounding.
Week 3 Early Herd Action
Similar to the first two weeks, sharp and public money is coming in strong on the plays involving the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Patriots.
Baltimore at Kansas City (6.5) Over/Under 55: 91% of the bets, 96% of the money
This number opened at 51 and was quickly bet up to 55. These two teams have the most electric offenses in football, so it makes sense that this number is on its way up. I expect for more sharp money to come in on the under as this number climbs but for the moment everyone is on the over. These are college football numbers, and it is difficult to handicap for the NFL. I do not have a play on the over but I actually lean to the under as this number climbs. Kansas City defense had a better performance last week against Oakland and we already know Baltimore has a stellar defense. Let this number climb and then look towards the under.
Miami at Dallas (-21) Over/Under 47.5: 84% of the bets, 84% of the money
This line is crazy! It opened at Dallas -15.5 and has been bet all the way up to three touchdowns. With 84% of the bets on Dallas, the sharps and squares have combined to drive this number. It makes sense considering how terrible the Miami team has looked in the first two weeks. However, this large of a spread is nearly unheard of. I won’t join the herd, and I won’t join the sharps. This will be a complete stay away for me.
The Sharps Breakaway
Cincinnati at Buffalo (-6): 79% of the bets, 46% of the money
This is the one game so far that the public and the sharps cannot agree on. The public is betting Buffalo with 79% of the bets, but only 46% of the money is on them. That means the sharps like Cincinnati plus the points in this game. After an impressive victory Week 1, Cincinnati was embarrassed by San Francisco. There seems to be an overreaction in the NFL odds market for this game. After one bad performance, the public is already giving up on the Bengals. Buffalo has an impressive defense, but this spread is too high. This will not be a game that I will be looking at.
It is a long and difficult season in the world of NFL odds and betting. We will take positive weeks when they come. The PFN betting crew will continue to put in the work to make sure our readers make money!
Current 2019 Pro Football Network Record: 35-18-2 for a 66% win percentage.
[sv slug=”pfnbets”]Don’t forget, whether the leader of the herd or venturing off the broken path, check out PFN for all the information you’ll need to win money!
Ryan Gosling is a writer covering betting and breaking news for PFN. Follow him on twitter at @rygosling.