The NFL offseason has two major events that will inevitably impact the fantasy values of several players. The first of those two events is free agency. Undoubtedly one of the top free agent signings of 2022, what does Allen Robinson’s dynasty fantasy football value look like after signing with the Rams?
Allen Robinson’s dynasty fantasy outlook
In 2019 and 2020, Robinson was one of the most reliable and consistent wide receivers in fantasy football. He averaged 15.9 PPR fantasy points per game in 2019 and 16.4 ppg in 2020. In both seasons, Robinson was around the WR1/2 border.
Then, in 2021, the wheels completely fell off. Robinson averaged 7.1 ppg and finished outside the top 80 wide receivers (minimum eight games played). After never averaging fewer than 54.8 receiving yards per game (which was his previous career-low during his rookie campaign), Robinson averaged just 34.2 receiving yards per game last season. He finished the season with 38 receptions for 410 yards and 1 touchdown in 12 games.
Robinson’s fantasy outlook with the Rams can’t be worse
When it comes to free agent wide receivers, there’s often a chance they return to their previous team. With Robinson, we’ve known for quite some time he was gone.
Robinson desperately needs a change of scenery. After playing out the 2021 season on the franchise tag, Robinson was looking for a long-term deal that would likely be the final one of his career.
The biggest question is, who shoulders the majority of the blame for Robinson’s disastrous 2021? Given that Robinson is only 29 years old, I’m firmly in the camp believing he is not done. His football ability didn’t just vaporize overnight. In the right environment, Robinson still has three or four good years left in him.
In 2022, Robinson’s fantasy value will be heavily tethered to what the Rams do at wide receiver. There are a lot of moving parts in Los Angeles. We know Cooper Kupp is the undisputed WR1. Behind him, Robert Woods is coming off a late-season torn ACL, and Odell Beckham Jr. has not yet been re-signed. If Woods takes a while to get going and the Rams don’t bring back Beckham, ARob will open the season as the clear WR2. He may play that role regardless.
The Rams gave Robinson three years and $45 million. That’s not role player money. That’s WR2 money. Robinson clearly wants to win, which is why he chose the Rams.
Fantasy impact on Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods
The biggest winner here is clearly Matthew Stafford. In the Super Bowl, the Rams almost lost because without Woods, Beckham, and Tyler Higbee, they didn’t have viable pass catchers behind Kupp. Stafford had no one else he could trust. Now he has another excellent weapon.
Robinson is the epitome of reliability. At 29 years old, he’s probably not a WR1 anymore, but he can be a very reliable WR2. For the first time in his career, he’s not the best wide receiver on his own team. That may be a good thing.
Kupp will be unaffected. He’s going to get his regardless. The biggest impact may be on what this signing tells us. If everyone is healthy, the Rams certainly don’t need a wide receiver. Van Jefferson would be a very strong WR5 behind Kupp, Robinson, Woods, and Beckham.
Based on this signing, my guess is the Rams are concerned about Woods being ready for Week 1 and that they are not going to re-sign Beckham. However, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that the Rams still intend to re-sign Beckham. To be honest, I’m not quite sure what they’re doing. It’s just an embarrassment of riches for Stafford.
Fantasy impact on Justin Fields and Darnell Mooney
Darnell Mooney had clearly usurped the WR1 role from Robinson last season. Do I think Mooney is better at football than Robinson? Absolutely not. However, the numbers don’t lie. Mooney saw 140 targets, catching 81 of them for 1,055 yards and 4 touchdowns. Even if you extrapolate Robinson’s numbers across 17 games, he only gets to 93.5 targets.
The Bears’ wide receiver depth chart is completely barren beyond Mooney. I would be stunned if they didn’t spend a Day 1 or 2 pick on a receiver in the NFL Draft.
While Mooney handled himself quite well last season, he still strikes me more as a complementary Z receiver than an alpha X receiver. Of course, Mooney’s role is contingent upon who the Bears bring in at the position. Will they draft a rookie that profiles as a true X receiver? What about other free agent signings? The Bears need more than just one receiver. Regardless of what Chicago does, Mooney will remain a starter in two-receiver sets and be a useful fantasy asset.
As for Justin Fields, losing an alpha like Robinson should be seen as a negative. But how can we view it that way after what we saw in 2021? Fields will be better-served learning and building rapport with a young WR duo of Mooney and whoever replaces Robinson.