The final game of the NFL season is here. As the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals prepare to meet, let’s look at the NFL odds and make some picks and predictions as to how the 2022 Super Bowl will play out.
2022 Super Bowl predictions
Let’s start with the facts. The Rams are the better team. If these teams played a best-of-seven series, the Rams would likely be in the -350 to -400 range. But this is not a series. It’s one game. And if there’s one thing we can be certain of with the NFL, it’s that anything can happen in one game.
There’s more to a football game than simply who has the better players. The Bengals aren’t better than the Chiefs, but they won anyway. Upsets happen. Teams get hot at the right time. Sometimes, a team has a boatload of confidence and carries it throughout the playoffs. All of this factors into making predictions about the outcome of the 2022 Super Bowl.
Which team will cover the spread?
The Rams opened as 3.5-point favorites. Sportsbooks quickly moved the line to 4 and eventually to 4.5. It’s since settled in at 4.
The Bengals are no strangers to the underdog role. It’s where they’ve been each of their past two games. Not only did the Bengals win both of those games outright, but they covered as favorites in their Wild Card game against the Raiders as well.
[bet-bonus id=”164810″ ]On the other side, the Rams are also on a hot streak against the spread. Although they’ve been favored in two of their three playoff games, they’ve also covered every time.
Additionally, the Rams have the benefit of playing in their home stadium. For the second consecutive year, one of the teams playing in the Super Bowl is doing so at home. The bad news for the Rams is SoFi Stadium hasn’t provided much of a home-field advantage. It felt like they were the road team in both of their home games against the 49ers. The Super Bowl may not be heavy on Bengals fans, but it’s unlikely to feel like a home game for the Rams. In fact, they’re not even the official home team for Super Bowl LVI.
The Bengals feel like a team of destiny
Make no mistake about it, the Rams should win this game. With that said, it’s so hard to pick against the Bengals right now. I expect them to be the more popular public play because they’re the darling team this season. We’ve seen many postseason stories play out similarly in the past.
The 2008 and 2011 New York Giants caught fire at the right time. Same for the 2012 Baltimore Ravens. Joe Burrow is playing with the utmost confidence, and Ja’Marr Chase looks unstoppable with 100 yards or a touchdown in every playoff game.
Against the Chiefs, the Bengals did a great job masking their offensive line issues. It may be a different story against Aaron Donald and the Rams’ fierce pass rush, but head coach Zac Taylor has two full weeks to figure that out.
I just don’t see either team running away with this. Would it surprise me if the Rams won this by 7-10 points? Not at all.
Ultimately, Matthew Stafford seems to make a potential game-losing mistake each week. The Rams let the Bucs come all the way back. And against the 49ers, Stafford tried to throw a game-losing pick, but Jaquiski Tartt dropped it.
I’m not confident in any one outcome here. As a result, let’s take the 4 points and ride with the Bengals.
What about the total?
The total sits at around 48.5, depending on where you look. It’s a fairly low total for the modern NFL centered around offense. All three Bengals games this postseason have gone under the total. They combined to score 51 points with the Chiefs, but the game still went under.
It’s been a similar story for the Rams. If not for the Bucs storming back in the second half, all three of their games would’ve gone well under. If I had to take a side for the game, I would definitely lean under. However, I think I have a better way to play it.
The first half total is currently 23.5. Both of these quarterbacks are playing in their first career Super Bowl in 2022. In fact, almost every player in this game is playing in his first career Super Bowl. There’s merit in thinking both teams may start a little slow either due to jitters or a conservative early game plan designed to avoid falling behind.
If this game goes to the half at something like 14-10, I would feel much better about the over than the under. So, if we want to play the under, we might as well go with just the first-half total.