The 2021 fantasy football season is officially in the rearview mirror, but the grind never stops! As soon as one season ends, we immediately start looking ahead to the next. With James Conner having signed a one-year deal with the Arizona Cardinals, he’s set to enter free agency in March. Let’s see where Conner might play in 2022 and analyze the fantasy impact his arrival would have on those teams.
James Conner’s options in free agency
After two consecutive seasons mired with injury, Conner stayed mostly healthy in 2021. Conner played in 15 of the Cardinals’ 17 regular-season games. He amassed 1,127 yards from scrimmage and scored an absurd 18 touchdowns.
Heading into the 2021 season, we always knew there was a chance Conner would dominate goal-line work, but I never expected he could be that prolific. Conner averaged 17.2 PPR fantasy points per game despite being on the wrong side of a timeshare with Chase Edmonds for the first half of the season.
At 27 years old, Conner should still have a couple of useful years left, especially given the limited tread on him at this point. Conner has 895 career touches. By comparison, Ezekiel Elliott, who is the same age as Conner, has 1,938 career touches.
Heading into 2022, Conner’s destination will heavily impact not only his fantasy value but the fantasy value of the running backs wherever he lands. Where might Conner end up in 2022?
Arizona Cardinals
The most likely scenario is a return to Arizona. Conner definitely feels a sense of allegiance to the Cardinals after they took a shot on him when most observers, myself included, wrote him off.
Conner and Edmonds formed a formidable duo, and the Cardinals have proven to be a team that doesn’t waste high draft picks on running backs or overpay for expensive free agents. Running this backfield back with Conner and Edmonds (who is also a 2022 free agent) makes a ton of sense for all parties.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
To be perfectly fair, pretty much anyone could end up on the Bucs at this point. This is a team completely in flux following Tom Brady’s retirement. We don’t know Rob Gronkowski’s playing status. How healthy will Chris Godwin be next season? Most importantly, their running back situation has a lot of moving parts.
Currently, Ke’Shawn Vaughn is the only Bucs running back under contract. Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard both signed one-year deals last offseason. Ronald Jones’ rookie contract has expired. Tampa Bay would not bring in Conner to compete with Fournette. However, if they cannot re-sign Fournette and let Jones walk, I’d be surprised if they just turned the backfield over to Vaughn.
2022 could be a transitional year for a team likely destined for last place if they can’t find a suitable replacement at quarterback. Bringing in Conner on a one-year deal might be something they’re interested in. At the same time, if they head into this season without a quarterback, paying a veteran running back seems like a bad investment.
If Conner ends up in Tampa Bay, his fantasy value would be tethered to how good this offense is in a post-Brady world. The one thing I am confident in is that Conner would be the lead back because I don’t see the Bucs signing him unless Fournette is gone.
Atlanta Falcons
Last season’s Mike Davis experiment was a spectacular failure. Davis managed just 762 yards on 182 total touches with 4 touchdowns. He lost his job to Cordarrelle Patterson and then even ceded work to the likes of Qadree Ollison.
Davis signed a two-year deal, but the Falcons could cut him with just $750,000 in dead cap. While this team is likely going nowhere with what’s left of Matt Ryan, they probably need to stick with the veteran QB for one more year. Signing Conner as a veteran stopgap at running back makes just as much sense as signing Davis last year, except that Conner is a much better player.
If the Falcons bring in Conner, I would fully expect him to be the lead runner and goal-line back. They would almost certainly cut Davis, and who knows what they’re doing with Patterson.
By the end of the season, they had completely marginalized Patterson’s passing-game work. It’s clear they never intended to keep him as a 15-opportunity-per-game player. Conner would have a chance to be a strong fantasy RB2 in Atlanta.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are another team that doesn’t like to spend draft capital on running backs. In 2021, they used a medley of guys at the position. Myles Gaskin opened the season as the lead back. By the end of the season, it was Duke Johnson.
Over the past year, the Dolphins have signed the likes of Malcolm Brown, Phillip Lindsay, and Johnson. Conner is the exact type of running back they would go after.
Despite Conner’s strong season, the 27-year-old running back would not be prohibitively expensive. They could likely get him on a one- or two-year deal.
In Miami, Conner would be the lead back and most valuable for fantasy purposes. The only caveat is the Dolphins have proven willing to cast aside any player in favor of whoever is performing the best. Conner wouldn’t have extra job security just because of his name or contract. If he doesn’t produce, they’ll use someone else.
With that said, Conner would instantly be the most talented back on the roster. He would also have a good shot at a three-down role. In 2022, the Dolphins used Gaskin in that role to start the season and then pretty much gave whoever their feature back was on any given week the majority of the work. We saw that play out with Johnson towards the end of the season. Conner’s best shot at reaching low-end RB1 value might be in Miami.