The Indianapolis Colts will begin the Jacoby Brissett era this Sunday when they visit the Los Angeles Chargers. Though he has been the starter for the team before, this time it is much different. This time he is not just the starting quarterback of the present but also the future.
Shortly following the shocking sudden retirement of Andrew Luck, the Colts made their commitment to Brissett clear with a 2-year, $30-million extension. Now, with $20-million in guaranteed money beyond the 2019 season, he isn’t just a placeholder.
“He is the man,” head coach Frank Reich said of Brissett. “He’s our answer.”
Brissett’s first stint as the Colts’ starter
Perhaps it’s darkly poetic that an inexplicable injury to Luck precipitated Brissett becoming the potential future quarterback of the franchise. After all, that is exactly how he got to Indianapolis in the first place.
The Colts acquired Brissett from the New England Patriots just before the 2017 season due to uncertainty surrounding an injury to Luck’s shoulder which had been operated on at the beginning of the offseason but was not responding as anyone hoped.
The then 24-year-old from West Palm Beach, Florida made his Colts debut a mere eight days later getting mop-up duty in a blowout 46-9 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. He’d make his first start for the Colts the following week, and started the rest of the season while Luck was placed on IR in early November.
The season went about as well as one might imagine for a team that lost its franchise quarterback and was forced to start someone both as inexperienced and unfamiliar as Brissett was. The Colts went 4-12 in 2017 while Brissett completed a meager 58.8% of his passes for 3098 yards, 13 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. His -14.4% in Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) was good for 27th in the National Football League.
The Indianapolis Colts’ previous offensive system
When news of Luck’s sudden retirement came down, many went scurrying to review the tape of Brissett’s previous stint as a starter. The prevailing verdict was clear: it wasn’t pretty. He appeared panicked and indecisive in the pocket while facing near-constant pressure all season. He was a deer in headlights on a very busy road.
The 56 (most in the NFL in 2017) sacks surrendered on the season were the catalyst not only for Brissett’s ineffectiveness, but also for general manager Chris Ballard’s initiative to rebuild the team’s offensive line. A feat he appears to have successfully engineered as the Colts fielded one of the best lines in all of football in 2018.
The line itself will not be the only change for Brissett this time around. So too has the offensive system he will be running. In 2017, Brissett’s average time to throw was 2.89 seconds which put him at 36th in the league. Luck’s in the same system in 2016? An almost identical 2.88.
The system run under previous offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski was filled with slow-developing concepts that asked its quarterback to hold onto the ball and deliver it deep downfield. A fit for a prodigious arm-talent like Luck maybe, but not so much for Brissett.
Lucks’ expected completion percentage (xCOMP%) in 2016 was just 58.5% – good for third lowest in the NFL. In other words, it was a very difficult scheme for a quarterback to execute. Fine for one of the best prospects of our time, but a big ask for a guy with only 55 career attempts in the NFL and just two seasons as a starter at North Carolina State.
What is different this time?
In 2018, Andrew Luck’s time-to-throw dropped dramatically to 2.63 (9th quickest in the NFL) under Reich and new offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni. In fact, he came in just behind Tom Brady (2.62) and Drew Brees (2.59). Two future Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks that have become synonymous with getting the ball out quickly, decisively, and accurately.
The distribution of this passing attack also figures to be a better fit for Brissett. In 2016, Luck threw 74 of his 545 (13.5%, PFF, subscription required) pass attempts deeper than 20 yards for an Average-Intended-Air Yards (IAY) of 8.9 yards. Brissett in the same system in 2017 attempted just 41 of 469 (11.4%) for an IAY of 7.6. In 2018 under Reich, Luck attempted 75 of 639 (11.7%) of his passes over 20 yards with an IAY of 7.6 per attempt. An almost identical profile to what Brissett posted in his season as the full-time starter.
Then, there’s the offensive line. In 2016 the Indianapolis Colts allowed 128 (2nd most) quarterback hits and 44 (fourth most) sacks. In 2017, with Brissett under center, the sack total rose to 56 (most in the NFL) and 113 (sixth-most) hits on the quarterback. In 2018 under the new coaching staff and reconstructed offensive line, Luck was sacked just 18 (fewest in the NFL) times and hit 77 (11th fewest) times. A remarkable feat and maybe the single biggest reason for the team’s stunning turnaround.
The defense too finds itself in far better shape. In 2017 while Brissett was at the helm, the Indianapolis Colts defense was 23rd in weighted DVOA at 5.9%. Their 28.5% mark against the pass was good for dead last in the NFL. In 2018, they shot up all the way up to 8th in weighted DVOA with an impressive -5.7% overall while coming in 20th (8.8%) against the pass and fourth (-18.8%) against the run. Not feeling like you have to win the game by yourself can do wonders for a quarterback’s confidence and decision-making.
Maybe the simplest and most critical of all differences for Brissett this second time around is his familiarity and preparedness. Before, he was asked to start just 15 days after being acquired. That was a tall task even for a seasoned veteran much less a second-year player with two previous career starts. Combine that will a highly difficult to execute system, and you have a recipe for certain disaster.
Now, the South Florida native has 17 career starts in the NFL under his belt, not to mention two full offseasons and training camps with the current coaching staff and playbook. From a developmental and preparedness standpoint, he is miles ahead of where he was in 2017.
The outlook for 2019 and beyond
Twice before this decade, the Indianapolis Colts have entered a new season unexpectedly without their franchise quarterback. The first time in 2011 when Peyton Manning missed the entire season with a neck injury. The second came when Luck lost his 2017 campaign to a confounding shoulder injury. Both times it led to the coaching staff and general manager being let go and the roster being hurled into a rebuild.
However, there are plenty of reasons to believe that this time will be different. In 2011, the roster was a house of cards built on Manning’s broad, franchise-carrying shoulders that immediately crumbled once the foundation was disturbed.
In 2017, a middling roster coming off of consecutive, disappointing 8-8 seasons was suddenly without the only thing keeping their heads above water: an obscenely talented franchise quarterback. Once he was swapped out for a promising but completely green second-year prospect, the downfall was inevitable.
2019 has the potential to tell a divergent story. The offensive line is a strength instead of a weakness. The defense is better. The roster is deeper. The coaching staff is smarter. And, maybe most importantly, the quarterback is confident, comfortable, and well-prepared. Let the Jacoby Brissett era begin.
Ken Grant is a writer for PFN covering the AFC South. You can follow him @KenGrantPFN on Twitter.