After years of will he/won’t he, New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels finally accepted a head coaching position, getting hired by the Las Vegas Raiders. McDaniels will join the Raiders as they elect not to remove the “interim” label from Rich Bisaccia. How will McDaniels reshape the Raiders’ offense, and what impact might he have on the fantasy football value of Raiders players such as Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow?
The Raiders hire Josh McDaniels as head coach
2022 has been a historically slow hiring season for head coaches. By this time last season, every head coaching vacancy had been filled. Currently, there are still several teams looking for their next head coach.
As of today, we can cross the Raiders off that list. On Friday, PFN’s Aaron Wilson reported the Raiders’ interest in McDaniels. Today, the Raiders made it official.
Josh McDaniels’ success as an offensive coordinator
McDaniels served as New England’s offensive coordinator from 2006-2008 and again from 2012-2021. During his two stints with New England, he helped lead the Patriots to a top-scoring offense in the NFL eight times. Of course, much of that was also due to Tom Brady.
But McDaniels spent four seasons calling plays for a quarterback not named Brady. In 2008, the Patriots were the eighth-best scoring offense with Matt Cassel under center. The 2011 Rams, with McDaniels as the offensive coordinator and mostly Sam Bradford at QB, were the worst offense in the league. In 2020, the Patriots were 27th, but this past season, they were sixth with Mac Jones.
Although McDaniels had two awful seasons in 2011 and 2020, he proved in 2008 and 2021 that he merely needs competent quarterback play to run a successful offense. In Las Vegas, McDaniels knows he is getting at least average quarterback play from Carr.
Josh McDaniels’ failures as a head coach
While McDaniels has earned another shot, it’s important to not gloss over his spectacular failure as head coach of the Denver Broncos.
In 2009 and 2010, the McDaniels-led Broncos were the 20th and 19th highest-scoring offenses. He led them to 8-8 and 4-12 seasons before he was ultimately fired. Kyle Orton certainly isn’t the greatest quarterback McDaniels ever worked with, but he qualified as moderately competent.
It’s fair to say McDaniels was a bit scarred by his time in Denver. After returning to the Patriots in 2012 and once again experiencing a ton of success, he quickly reemerged as a top HC candidate.
The Raiders were not McDaniels’ only head coaching opportunity in recent memory. In 2018, the Colts hired McDaniels to be their next head coach. New Chicago Bears head coach Matt Eberflus had even joined McDaniels in Indianapolis. Then, before officially signing his contract, McDaniels backed out to return to New England. We can be supremely confident McDaniels’ decision to take this job at this time is measured.
This move should benefit Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller
During Jon Gruden’s four disastrous years as head coach of the Raiders, they finished as the 28th, 24th, 10th, and 18th scoring offenses, respectively. Gruden consistently underutilized Jacobs in the passing game and was unable to help Carr recapture his greatness from 2015 and 2016.
From a fantasy perspective, in 2021, Carr was the QB15 by average fantasy points per game (minimum eight games played). Jacobs finished as the RB13, Renfrow the WR15, and Waller TE6. It was a breakout year for Renfrow and a strong season from Jacobs as well.
While in New England, McDaniels frequently designed plays to throw to the running backs. Obviously, Jacobs is not James White or Danny Woodhead, but he’s a competent pass catcher. Jacobs is coming off a career-best 4.3 targets per game. If McDaniels can get that number to 5, Jacobs has a great shot to be an RB1 in 2022.
McDaniels’ impact on Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller
As for Renfrow and Waller, the way McDaniels helps them is by improving this offense as a whole. Although Waller missed six games in 2021, he still should’ve scored more than 2 touchdowns. If McDaniels can propel the Raiders to be a top-10 offense, Waller should push double-digit touchdown numbers as the Raiders’ premier red-zone target.
Renfrow is coming off a career year. He caught 103 passes for 1,038 yards and 9 touchdowns. Even if McDaniels has a big impact on improving the Raiders’ offense, it’s difficult to see Renfrow improving upon this season. With that said, McDaniels has worked with receivers like Wes Welker and Julian Edelman before to great success. Renfrow profiles similarly to those two guys, which makes me optimistic Renfrow can maintain a high level of productivity.
Will any high-profile players follow Josh McDaniels to Las Vegas?
At this time, there are no big-time free agents linked to the Raiders. Yet, with a hire like McDaniels, it’s certainly plausible that players will feel more positively about joining the Raiders.
This team is currently in the market for a true outside receiver. Zay Jones and Bryan Edwards aren’t cutting it. Perhaps McDaniels’ presence can lure someone like Davante Adams or Allen Robinson to Las Vegas.
Ultimately, the Raiders’ offensive success will come down to quarterback play. Can McDaniels get the most out of Carr? History suggests he can, and if he does, this offense will be fun to watch in 2022 and beyond.