The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is upon us, which means only a handful of games remain in the season — leaving us limited time to find value in fantasy football and NFL betting. As we continue our tour around the Divisional Round while examining individual player values for prop bets and DFS, let’s see if Mike Evans helps our case.
Mike Evans’ DFS value vs. Rams
One day, Evans might finally get the respect he deserves. He is the model of consistency. This year, he added to his own record by becoming the first player ever with 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first eight seasons.
Evans was a primary target for Tom Brady, even if he was not his No. 1 for most of the season. He finished second on the team in targets with 114 while hauling in 74 receptions for 1,035 yards and a career-high 14 touchdowns. Since his return from injury in Week 17, Evans has been what drives the offense.
Increased role with Chris Godwin out
With injuries to Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette, plus Antonio Brown being Antonio Brown, Evans’ role expanded even further. Over his last three games, Evans has 19 receptions for 253 yards and 4 touchdowns.
At $6,800, Evans is reasonably priced on DraftKings for DFS. Few WRs will see his volume or mean as much to their respective offense. If you are throwing together a Buccaneers stack, Evans makes all the sense in the world. With that said, I do not know if he will be a primary target for me in DFS.
If Godwin and Brown were still on the team, I’d be all over Evans. He had 8 receptions for 106 against the Rams back in Week 3, and he had 5-49-1 against LA last season. But now Jalen Ramsey only has to worry about a single receiver.
The Rams are not a man-coverage team, but for them, zone basically turns into man when a receiver is in their area. There is a high possibility we see shadow coverage from Ramsey on Evans — at minimum, they’ll line up against each other 70% of the time or so. That’s concerning, to say the least. Evans will still get his at the end of the day, but in DFS, I would rather use Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, or A.J. Brown, all of whom are cheaper than Evans on DraftKings.
Mike Evans prop bets this weekend
For those looking for prop bets, Evans has some good ones for the Divisional Round of the playoffs. On FanDuel, Evans’ receiving prop bet is set at 71.5 (-110). On DraftKings, it is 70.5 (-115). Undoubtedly, the matchup is tough. Ramsey is one of the best CBs in the NFL, and as a defense, the Rams are sensational. They are No. 5 in overall DVOA (Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric), No. 6 vs. the pass, and are 12th in expected points added (EPA) per dropback.
[bet-promo id=”160605″ ]I am leaning toward the over on this prop bet as volume should get Evans above 70 yards on the day. Whenever Brady sees Ramsey guarding a different pass catcher, we should expect to see the ball go in Evans’ direction. If you want to go with an anytime TD for Evans, FanDuel has that prop bet at +105. Evans has scored in each of his last three games. Personally, I would also lay a little on him to be the first touchdown scorer. It’s at +800 on DraftKings Sportsbook and +600 on FanDuel Sportsbook.