When the NFL decided to expand the regular season to 17 games, football and fantasy football purists who cling to stats and records (like myself) knew that there was a better chance that records could fall. One of them is the 2018 performance by Patrick Mahomes, where he posted 417 fantasy points. Josh Allen currently sits at 393.8 fantasy points through 16 games, putting him only 23.2 points behind the record. Can Allen beat it?
Josh Allen has a good chance to break the record
Alen is only 23.3 fantasy points away from the single-season fantasy points record, but it comes with the expanded season. That brings about an entirely different conversation about sports records, with fantasy lunatics like ourselves obsessing about the numbers. Does it count? Is it the same? Should there be a separate records book based on the lengthened season?
Whatever your stance is, we will operate with the understanding that the record is in jeopardy. Allen needs 23.3 fantasy points, and he has averaged 24.6 fantasy points per game this season. He has eight games this year over 23.3 points and eight games under. This looks like a straight push, but his rushing upside (700 yards with 6 touchdowns) is a major boost.
Patrick Mahomes had a ridiculous 2018 season
When talking about the quarterback position in fantasy football, the latest trend is to discuss the rushing upside as a cheat code for fantasy quarterbacks, and rightly so. Quarterbacks that can stack up rushing stats have a great opportunity to contribute for fantasy football purposes.
When looking at Mahomes’ 2018 season, however, he was nothing more than a minor contributor in the rushing game. In 2018, Mahomes had 60 rushing attempts for 272 yards and 2 TDs.
That’s basically what he has done every year since. He had exactly 2 rushing TDs in all four years as a starter, and his 327 rushing yards this year are a career high.
In 2018, Mahomes threw for 5,097 yards, a whopping 50 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Obviously, it was a high-water mark on the passing side of things, and it led to those monstrous 417 fantasy points. Mahomes threw 50 TDs in 2018, but he hasn’t topped 38 touchdowns since. It was an unbelievable season.
Will Allen break the record?
Honestly, it’s a close call, but his opponent certainly helps. Allen and the Bills are still grappling with the New England Patriots for the AFC East title, and they have a date with the New York Jets in Week 18. Over the last four weeks, the Jets have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. They’ve surrendered 131 rushing yards and 2 TDs to the position in that time.
Allen is primed to have a big day in a game that matters tremendously for playoff purposes. Over the last four weeks, Allen has averaged 69.5 rushing yards per game and has tacked on 3 rushing TDs. That ability significantly raises his fantasy floor. Allen is in a great position to set the all-time single-season fantasy points record at the quarterback position.