When you approach your upcoming fantasy football draft, it is important to understand your rankings and where you should be targeting those players. This will help you avoid reaching for guys and this will help you maximize the value from every one of your picks.
If you value two players the same and you can get one of those players in the tenth and the other in the fifth, I hope you choose the player in the tenth. It is hard to find value in the first two or three rounds because everyone is going where they most likely should go. Most of these guys are being drafted at their ceiling, anything less than a top ten year will be disappointing.
I have gone through all of the teams in the league and have selected values for you to target for each team that I think is being drafted closer to their floor that could exceed expectations. In this article, we will go through players in each of the 16 AFC teams to be followed by players from the NFC teams in the next article.
*All ADP is based on .5 PPR using fantasyfootballcalculator.com or FantasyPros.com
AFC East
Josh Allen – QB, Buffalo Bills – ADP 12.10
Josh Allen is the 22nd quarterback coming off of the board. Allen was as hot as you could be to finish the season in 2018 as he was the number one overall QB for the final five weeks. Allen brings big-play ability through the air and with his legs, giving him a super high floor. His rushing ability gives him a higher floor as he rushed for 631 yards in just 11 games last year.
The Buffalo Bills gave him some more support on the offensive line by picking up big-ticket free agent Mitch Morse from the Kansas City Chiefs and drafting Oklahoma offensive lineman Cody Ford in the second round. Additionally, the Bills revamped their wide receiver room by adding veterans John Brown and Cole Beasley. Allen’s low price makes him a low-risk, potentially, high reward investment.
Kenyan Drake – RB, Miami Dolphins – ADP 7.07
The Miami Dolphins backfield is a bit messy and running back Kenyan Drake‘s value has changed throughout the offseason. After the NFL draft, Drake was one of the biggest risers, but throughout the preseason his ADP has gone down. Drake has missed time due to injury and second-year RB Kalen Ballage has taken advantage. I still see Drake as the better running back, and most importantly, the pass-catcher in this backfield. The Miami Dolphins are most likely going to have a lot of negative game scripts and this will lead to more passing attempts. This leads me to lean Drake over Ballage, and in the seventh round, I think Drake brings great value in all points per reception formats.
Sony Michel – RB, New England Patriots – ADP 3.11
Sony Michel has been recently rising as the preseason games have reminded us of how good of a running back he is. The addition of rookie running Damien Harris and a small procedure on Michel’s knee had Michel’s ADP in the sixth or seventh round at points this summer. Michel showed us in the NFL playoffs last year that he can have a tremendous upside. The New England Patriots reportedly want to involve him more in the passing game as well. Michel is being drafted as the 20th running back off of the board, but he has top-five RB upside.
Jamison Crowder – WR, New York Jets – ADP 11.11
Jamison Crowder has had his share of offseason hype, and his injury history has made it hard for him to reach his potential so far. Crowder is looking to start over with the New York Jets, and the Jets are hoping to cash in on their free-agent acquisition.
Crowder will be lining up in the slot and has already been flashing in both training camp as well as in the preseason with second-year quarterback Sam Darnold. We all saw how Jarvis Landry was used in the Dolphins’ version of the Adam Gase offense. We can only hope that Crowder is used in the same way and that he is able to stay on the field. At 14.04, there is basically no risk at all to find out.
He should be a solid WR5 with the potential to crack into the starting lineup if you start to see the catches pile up. Worst case scenario, he is one of your first drops and you paid nothing to get him as kickers and defenses are being drafted around him.
AFC North
Justice Hill – Baltimore Ravens – ADP 10.11
At the end of every year for the last five years, we have had rookie running backs landing in the top 12 of fantasy football RB rankings, sometimes two or more. You should add at least one of these high upside rookies to your bench in the draft. There is an easy case that Justice Hill can bring value in Week 1 to your lineup even behind Mark Ingram.
The Baltimore Ravens look to be one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL and there should be a lot of carries to go around between the running backs. Hill is an explosive player with big-play potential. He should find his way on the field and used in multiple ways, and therefore, you should find a way to get him on your roster. Hill doesn’t need an injury in front of him to be relevant, but if there were an injury, he would be a must-own.
A.J. Green – WR, Cincinnati Bengals – ADP 6.01
A.J. Green when healthy is a top 10 wide receiver and he is going in the sixth round. Even if he misses three or four games, you can still take advantage of the discount. In some leagues, he is going even later, and the later he goes, the harder it will be to pass up. During the first four weeks, you will not have to deal with bye weeks and you can stash him most likely on your IR. Make sure you have capable players behind Green that can play during the first three or four weeks. If Green plays ten or more games for you, he is well worth the price.
David Njoku – TE, Cleveland Browns – ADP 7.10
It is really hard to find a value on the most hyped team this offseason. At a position that is paper-thin, David Njoku could easily be a starter each week and you can get him all the way down in the ninth. You could easily pair him with another streaming option later in the draft as everyone outside of the top six has the potential to finish within the top ten.
Njoku is currently being drafted as the tenth TE off the board, and there is an easy path for him to end up in the top five. This offense is expected to be high scoring and Baker Mayfield will spread the ball around. The one area that Njoku will excel in is the red zone as he is the team’s only big-bodied pass catcher. Mayfield has a history of targeting tight ends going back to college, and he showed a good connection with Njoku in 2018.
Donte Moncrief – Pittsburgh Steelers – ADP 10.09
Donte Moncrief may not be the sexiest of fantasy football picks and that is why he is on this list. I think we all would love to have the WR2 of the Pittsburgh Steelers this year and as of now, that is him. In the ninth round, he is most likely not a starter on your team.
Moncrief will be one of your top bench players and not only does he bring depth, but he brings upside. He is a great red-zone target and he also offers big-play potential. James Washington playing into the second quarter of preseason games and Moncrief sitting out with the starters is enough to make me invest this late in the draft.
AFC South
Keke Coutee – WR, Houston Texans – ADP 12.12
Second-year wide receiver Keke Coutee was a breakout candidate, and prior to the preseason, his stock was peaking in the eighth round. An ankle injury gave us a quick reminder that Coutee has had a history of soft tissue injuries and has struggled to get on the field. This is why he is in the 12th round and at that price, you can afford to take the injury risk.
Coutee established great rapport and built trust with quarterback Deshaun Watson quickly last year. This was evident when Coutee was getting targeted at the same rate as DeAndre Hopkins. He was averaging about seven targets a game with Hopkins in the game and offers a high floor in point per reception formats.
Marlon Mack – RB, Indianapolis Colts – ADP 4.09
Marlon Mack‘s draft price has gone down significantly over this past week following the news of Andrew Luck‘s retirement. The offense undoubtedly took a step back, and there is fear that Mack will be negatively affected. In the late fourth or early fifth, I think Mack is a great value. I believe in their head coach and I believe in their offensive line. More importantly, I also believe in Mack.
Mack was not used in the passing game last season, and there is a narrative that he will not be used again. However, I don’t believe that he will be completely left out of the passing game like he was last year. Mack has a passing skillset that was used in college and as a rookie. Look for the Indianapolis Colts to lean on that offensive line and Mack in 2019.
Dede Westbrook – WR, Jacksonville Jaguars – ADP 6.10
No one is falling all over themselves to draft many players on the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense. The offense, in general, has not been good in years. Even with a change at both quarterback as well as offensive coordinator, there is still hesitation. New QB Nick Foles should bring some promise and should be able to support at least one fantasy football relevant wide receiver this year.
Dede Westbrook looks to be in line for slot duty, which is enticing as he will typically not line up versus the oppositions’ number one defenders. Also, he is in line to be the team’s target leader as teammate Marqise Lee is most likely going to miss multiple games to start the season as he is still recovering from injury. Don’t give up on Westbrook just yet as this third-year WR could be a breakout candidate.
Delanie Walker – TE, Tennessee Titans – ADP 10.04
Delanie Walker missed last season due to a broken ankle and has been all but forgotten. Walker has been a perennial top 10 tight end since joining the Tennessee Titans and should be able to exceed his current draft stock. Walker is currently being the 12th tight end drafted but could easily finish within the top seven. He is extremely dependable for fantasy football owners and more importantly, Marcus Mariota. Even if Ryan Tannehill takes over, look for Walker to be a great value this year in your fantasy football drafts.
AFC West
Emmanuel Sanders – WR, Denver Broncos – ADP 8.02
Emmanuel Sanders was on pace for a career year in 2018 before going down to injury. I was very skeptical of him being able to return by Week 1. Not only is Sanders ready to go, but he was able to play in the preseason. He not only played, but did so very well. Last season, Joe Flacco had a strong connection with John Brown, and we’re already seeing a similar pairing with him and Sanders. Sanders is currently being drafted in the eighth round as the 36th wide receiver off the board. He should easily be able to finish in the top 24 on a weekly basis and exceed his draft cost.
Sammy Watkins – RB, Kansas City Chiefs – ADP 9.03
Sammy Watkins landed a huge contract with the Kansas City Chiefs two offseasons ago. Watkins continued to struggle to stay on the field or stay healthy in 2018, and the Chiefs were not able to cash in on their investment. He has a long injury history and has burned fantasy players to the point that no one really wants to take a chance.
Watkins is still just 25 years old and is attached to the number one offense in the league. When healthy last year, Watkins was on pace for a top 26 wide receiver season. He should keep his role in this offense and is one of the only affordable pieces to this high powered offense. Watkins is just as risky as the wide receivers in this range but offers a higher reward. Being drafted as the 40th wide receiver off the board, Watkins should exceed expectations.
Justin Jackson – RB, Los Angeles Chargers – ADP 9.08
Melvin Gordon is currently threatening suspension, and Austin Ekeler is the presumed starter. He is rising up draft boards and is no longer a value at this point. Last year when Gordon missed time, we saw Ekeler struggle and was not as efficient in the lead role.
In Week 7, Ekeler was given the ball 12 times and ran for 42 yards. In Week 12, Ekeler was given the ball 13 times, rushing for just 21 yards. The week following, Ekeler rushed 15 times for 66 yards. To be frank, Ekeler is great in the Ekeler role. If Gordon misses time due to injury or holdout, he’ll stay in that role.
The Los Angeles Chargers have already said it would be a 50-50 split with Justin Jackson. If so, why is Jackson being drafted in the 13th round and Ekeler in the sixth? Jackson is a better runner than Ekeler and should receive very crucial goal-line duties in a very high scoring offense. He would lose value if Gordon were to end his holdout, but until then, I am picking him up everywhere I can.
Tyrell Williams – WR, Oakland Raiders – ADP 11.08
Tyrell Williams received a four-year contract worth $44 million this offseason, and the Oakland Raiders obviously had big plans for him. Those plans changed when they acquired Antonio Brown from the Pittsburgh Steelers, but Williams should still be in line for a lot of work in this Jon Gruden led offense.
Williams should benefit from playing the opposite of Brown, who should demand a lot of targets, leaving Williams in a lot of one-on-one coverage. Williams offers big-play potential and can pick up a lot of his points in chunks as well. He should be a great red zone threat for the Raiders. He is being forgotten this offseason, but make sure you don’t forget him on draft day.
NFC East
Miles Sanders – RB, Philadelphia Eagles – ADP 5.03
Miles Sanders is currently being taken as the 28th running back off the board. Jordan Howard and the history of running back by committee has helped his ADP from rising all offseason. The training camp reports have continued to speak glowingly of Sanders, and this preseason the Philadelphia Eagles are starting to show their hand. He is looking like the clear cut number one, and let’s remember that they gave up very minimal in order to acquire Howard with no knowledge if they could get Sanders in the draft.
Over the past five seasons, 2.5 rookie running backs have made it into the top 12 on average. Even more of them have made it into the top 24 or top 36. Currently, Sanders is being drafted as a top 30 RB. I believe this to be his floor. There is an easy case to make for Sanders to be the top fantasy football rookie running back this season. He checks all of the boxes: high scoring offense, good offensive line, and offers a three-down skill set with his pass-catching ability.
Tony Pollard – RB, Dallas Cowboys – ADP 8.06
Tony Pollard is the ultimate lottery ticket until we find out how long Elliott is going to stay out. It’s possible that a deal even gets done this weekend. The questions are not only about how many games will Elliott miss, but also how will Pollard be used when Elliott returns.
At this point, I would hedge my bets and take Elliott in the first and Pollard in the seventh or eighth. That offense has been extremely fantasy friendly to all running backs behind that offensive line. Pollard has a pass-catching skill set as well. Until further notice, he is the starter and has played every snap with the first-team offense this preseason. Even if you only get one or two games, he will be worth an eighth-round pick. He should carry value in the passing game when Elliott returns as well as be a valuable handcuff. If talks die down again, and Elliott were to miss six or eight games, Pollard would be even more worth it.
Sterling Shepard – WR, New York Giants – ADP 9.01
Sterling Shepard is currently the 39th wide receiver off the board and is the clear cut number one wide receiver on this team for at least the first four weeks. There is a ton of vacated targets and Shepard has always produced well without Odell Beckham Jr. Shepard’s finger injury and everyone’s lack of excitement towards the New York Giants’ offense as a whole has his ADP in the late rounds. You likely can get Shepard as your fourth or fifth option at WR.
New York’s offense wasn’t as bad last year as people are making it out to be, and Eli Manning was actually the 16th best fantasy football quarterback because of the amount of passing the team did. With a terrible defense, look for them to pass as much or even more this year. The good thing for Shepard is that Beckham is not there to soak up targets.
The Giants team scored the most points in the NFC East last year, and Manning, as bad as he has been, has shown to support top-end fantasy football performance in the past. Shepard could easily finish as a WR2 (inside the top 24) with a top 45 price tag.
Trey Quinn – WR, Washington Redskins – ADP 20.83
Trey Quinn is currently undrafted in most leagues and the Washington Redskins’ offense, in general, are all being avoided. Quinn has been getting a lot of positive talk from his head coach and should be a high volume points per reception option.
Head coach Jay Gruden has a past history of utilizing the slot wide receiver well and Case Keenum also has a past history with targeting the slot receivers. Look to grab Quinn with your last pick in the draft as he will likely be a top waiver wire target following Week 1 after he gets peppered with targets.
NFC North
Anthony Miller – Chicago Bears – ADP 11.07
I listed Allen Robinson as a post-hype sleeper candidate and I still think he brings great value. Anthony Miller could easily surpass Robinson though as the team’s number one target and at 11.07, I would much rather invest in Miller. Miller flashed at times last year as a rookie and will only get better. He missed some time or played hurt all year with a nagging shoulder injury.
Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy has been raving about Miller’s flexibility and how he can be used in all of the formations as well as the red zone. This is music to our ears as Miller was highly successful and touted as a red-zone specialist coming out of college. The Bears as a team made a huge turnaround in 2018, and the offense, in particular, performed really well. Look for them to repeat that in 2019 and for Miller to be a breakout candidate.
Marvin Jones – WR, Detroit Lions – ADP 8.07
In 2017, Marvin Jones finished as the fifth overall WR in standard scoring and the 12th WR in full PPR scoring. It was nothing short of disappointing, however, in 2018. Jones struggled when on the field and found himself off of the field due to injury often. He and quarterback Matthew Stafford connected on numerous big plays in 2017, while in 2018, did not have the same luck.
Jones should be on your radar in all best ball drafts and in all fantasy football drafts in general. The team is lacking in receiving options and has a lot of vacated targets with Golden Tate missing from the offense. Jones is a great value with a lot of upside coming off the board in the eighth round or worse this year.
Aaron Rodgers – QB, Green Bay Packers – ADP 5.12
If you have read any of my articles previously, you know that I am all about the late-round quarterback. Before you call me out for contradicting myself, hear me out. Aaron Rodgers, who finished as the seventh-best fantasy football quarterback in 2018, is coming off of his worst season. Rodgers played most of the season hurt and still finished as the seventh-best at his worst. Now, you can get him in the sixth round.
His wide receivers Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling could have both easily made this list and both should be on your radars. But, Rodgers’ value is too good to pass up. Before 2018, Rodgers had posted no worse than a top-two finish in over five years straight. He is relatively young in comparison to the older guys like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, or Ben Roethlisberger.
Rodgers is the surest thing in the sixth round, and if he is there or later, you should absolutely take advantage. Other fantasy football players around Rodgers are both Lamar Miller and Jarvis Landry at 6.02 or Austin Ekeler at 6.06. Take Rodgers and thank us later as this is the first time in years that Rodgers can be had beyond round three.
Kirk Cousins – QB, Minnesota Vikings – ADP 12.05
Kirk Cousins was the 12th best fantasy football quarterback last season, and he is currently going off the board as the 18th quarterback. If you believe in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen as top 12 wide receivers, you should believe in Cousins. Cousins at worst is a great number two option in Superflex leagues or to have on your bench.
Cousins had eight games last season where he finished as a top 12 fantasy football quarterback option and 14 out of 16 games he was in the top 24. In the first year with a new team and changing offensive coordinators midseason, he still piled up plenty of statistics. Cousins welcomes back running back Dalvin Cook to pair with his receiving weapons, who is a great receiving option out of the backfield himself.
Cousins should also have an improved offensive line as the Minnesota Vikings used their first-round pick on center Garrett Bradbury from N.C. State. If you completely punt the quarterback position, you can still end up with Cousins, who has finished as a top 12 fantasy football quarterback each year since becoming a starter in the NFL.
NFC South
Austin Hooper – TE, Atlanta Falcons – ADP 11.04
Austin Hooper finished as the sixth overall tight end in fantasy football in 2018. Hooper is currently being drafted as the 12th overall tight end. If his ceiling is top six and his floor is top 12, you are buying him with plenty of upside. Hooper continues to grow as a tight end and in each season he has shown improvement. He is on a high scoring offense with an All-Pro quarterback. Look for Hooper if you miss on one of the big-three tight ends.
Cam Newton – QB, Carolina Panthers – ADP 8.10
Cam Newton has number one overall quarterback upside and has been a fantasy football stud for the last 6+ seasons. Newton was the number four overall fantasy QB last year before going down to injury, and these are the best offensive weapons he has ever had. He has had all offseason to heal from his injury, and all indications are that he is going to be good to go this season.
Newton was being drafted low, but recently, analysts have been pointing out how great of a value he is. As a result, his ADP has shot up into the eighth round, but that is still great value.
The Carolina Panthers run the ball through the air with Christian McCaffrey and are not afraid to use Newton in the red zone. Look for Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore to both have great fantasy football seasons. In addition, Greg Olsen is back, and second-year tight end Ian Thomas should also contribute in the passing game to add to Newton’s weaponry.
Latavius Murray – RB, New Orleans Saints – ADP 6.09
The New Orleans Saints have had a top 10 running back every year for six years straight. In 2017, they had two finish within the top 10. As Drew Brees has gotten older, the Saints have been more reliant on their run game. They utilize the running backs extremely well in the passing game and this high scoring offense is always in the top five in rushing touchdowns. Latavius Murray is one of the league’s best red-zone running backs and has scored 34 touchdowns since entering the league in 2015.
Murray can start each week for you in your flex and if Alvin Kamara were to go down to injury, Murray would immediately become a top 10 RB. For now, he is a fantastic value as your third or fourth running back. The RB landscape gets slim after round five, and Murray is the perfect draft day target.
Peyton Barber – RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP 11.10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones is a great value as well as he is being drafted at 12.05. You could easily get them both and hope for at least one fantasy-relevant RB. I chose Peyton Barber because he currently is penciled in as the starter. Barber held off second-round rookie running back Jones last season, and so far this year he is doing it again.
If you can get a starting RB in the 11th round, there should be no questions asked. If he is not the starter or it doesn’t pan out, you didn’t invest much at all. You will need RB depth during the 16 game season, and it will be extremely hard to find on your waiver wire. Barber is definitely not going to wow your league-mates on draft day, but he will be a great depth piece throughout the season.
NFC West
Christian Kirk – WR, Arizona Cardinals – ADP 8.01
Christian Kirk was possibly the only bright spot of the 2018 season for the Arizona Cardinals. A lot of casual fans see Kirk as only a slot wide receiver because of his size and think it will take a Larry Fitzgerald retirement for him to amount to anything.
I disagree completely and think that Kirk offers the skillset moves around the formations to have success outside. Kirk has familiarity with both the scheme as well as he is the only player on the team that has played with rookie quarterback Kyler Murray. They were teammates at Texas A&M. The offense will at times line up in four WR sets and have two slot WRs. Their head coach Kliff Kingsbury has already stated that he will be moving Kirk all over the field.
Not only does the head coach want to run a fast pace air raid scheme, but the defense of the Cardinals is amongst the worst in the league. Look for this team to push for the record of pass attempts and look for Kirk to be targeted a lot this season. You should target him in your drafts in 2019.
Robert Woods – WR, Los Angeles Rams – ADP 4.06
Robert Woods finished the 2018 season as a top 10 wide receiver, but he is currently being drafted as the 16th wide receiver off the board. Woods is on an extremely fantasy football friendly offense and an extremely high scoring offense. The team is concerned about running back Todd Gurley and his knee. If his production were to go anywhere, it would go straight to the passing game and Woods could see even more production in 2019.
Even if Woods doesn’t see an increase in targets, he should still be the prototypical WR2 on your fantasy team. Woods was a top 24 wide receiver in 10 games in 2018, and he finished as a top 12 fantasy football option. In the fourth round as your second or third wide receiver, he should return value if not more every week.
Tevin Coleman – RB, San Francisco 49ers – ADP 5.06
Tevin Coleman has been slowly rising as he was in the seventh round just a few weeks ago. Fellow running back Jerick McKinnon is headed towards the injured reserve list and Coleman looks to be in line for more work. Coleman has a history with head coach Kyle Shanahan and has had fantasy football success under Shanahan in the past. Shanahan was able to turn Carlos Hyde into a top 12 running back and made third or fourth string options fantasy relevant last year.
Shanahan’s scheme is extremely friendly to the running backs, and when he was with the Atlanta Falcons in 2016, they were able to support two top 20 fantasy football running backs. One of those two backs just happened to have been Coleman. Coleman is poised for a breakout, and if you can get him in the fifth as your second or third option at RB, you are buying him cheap. One of Coleman’s best abilities is his availability and as running backs fall to injury throughout the season, look for Coleman to rise up the ranks.
Matt Breida at 8.01 is a great bonus value as well. You could easily take both and get 1 top 20 fantasy football running back. You could also easily get two top 20 fantasy football running backs. I want a piece of this backfield and I am willing to double down to hedge my bets.
Rashaad Penny – RB, Seattle Seahawks – ADP 8.06
Rashaad Penny was not able to steal the job from Chris Carson in 2018. Penny actually was used as the third option, behind running back Mike Davis. The Seattle Seahawks ran the ball more than any other team in the league last year and all signs point to them trying to do that again. Davis is now off to Chicago, and Penny is in line for more work.
This offense can support both running backs, and Penny should be in line for more carries in 2019. He should also be utilized in the passing game as the team lacks pass catchers. Penny would be a top 10 RB option if Carson, who has a long injury history, were to go down. Penny is a great value in the seventh round and has the upside to help you maximize your return on this pick.
David Heilman is a writer and Fantasy Football co-director for Pro Football Network. You can follow him at @DynastyDorks on Twitter.