The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers will face off in one of the most important games of the week. These teams are third and fourth in the AFC North, but they each still have playoff hopes. As crazy as it sounds, Cleveland could control their own destiny with a win this week, as the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals are both underdogs. You’ll find the NFL odds along with my pick and prediction for the Browns vs. Steelers below.
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers pick, prediction | Week 17
- Spread: Browns -3.5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Browns -170, Steelers +150
- Over/Under: 41
Baker Mayfield has consistently struggled down the stretch of this season. Over his last five games, he’s thrown for only 908 yards with 7 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He owns a 2-3 record over that span, with the wins coming by 2 and 3 points against the Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions, respectively.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]Had they defeated the Green Bay Packers last week, the Browns could’ve controlled their own destiny. In their most important game of the season, Mayfield struggled, throwing for only 222 yards with 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 36 pass attempts.
With Cleveland driving down the field, Mayfield threw an interception to end the game. It’s important to note that the game wasn’t fully on Mayfield, as the coaching staff consistently abandoned the run. It was their play-calling along with Mayfield’s questionable decision-making that lost them the contest.
Browns vs. Steelers betting trends
Cleveland has struggled against the spread (ATS) this season. They’ve covered in only 46.7% of their games thus far. They’re also failing to cover the spread by an average of 2.4 points per game.
Pittsburgh’s been slightly worse against the spread this season. They enter this game with a 40% cover rate. They’re failing to cover by an average of 3.4 points per game as well.
Both of these teams lean toward the under in their games.
The Browns enter this game with a 7-8 over/under record, while the Steelers bring a 6-8-1 over/under record into this contest.
Browns vs. Steelers prediction
It’s always difficult to predict important divisional games late in the season. You can’t trust either of these quarterbacks, although you can trust the Browns’ running game. The biggest question is whether they’ll lean on that or allow Mayfield to try to gain some confidence before a potential playoff run.
The Steelers simply aren’t an impressive team, and it’s slightly shocking that they’re still in the playoff hunt at this point in the season. The Browns own the better roster, and they’ll be returning a few players from the COVID list.
I’ll side with the better roster to win outright, although I don’t fully trust their team to cover the spread. I’d rather bet the under in what should be a defensive-minded game.
Browns vs. Steelers Prediction: Browns 20, Steelers 17