The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers will face off in a divisional matchup with plenty on the line. Green Bay is playing for a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Minnesota, on the other hand, is on the outside looking in, but are still playing for a Wild Card spot. Here are the NFL odds and our pick and prediction for the Vikings vs. Packers for Week 17.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers pick, prediction | Week 17
- Spread: Packers -6.5 (Odds provided by DraftKBalesings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Vikings +210, Packers -260
- Over/Under: 47
The stakes and splits
The stakes are as high as they can be in this game. The Vikings are playing for their shot at the postseason, while the Packers are trying to control where the NFC side of the playoffs will take place. We’ve consistently seen Aaron Rodgers step up in big situations, but can Kirk Cousins match him in this game?
Cousins is a player that’s been known to struggle outside of the 1 PM time slot. He’s been significantly worse in prime-time games throughout his career, and this particular matchup has added pressure.
[bet-promo id=”160605″ ]Green Bay is also arguably the best team in the NFL at home. They own a perfect 7-0 home record with elite advanced metrics in Green Bay.
The question becomes whether Cousins can step up in a hostile, big-game environment.
Vikings vs. Packers betting trends
The Vikings have quietly found success against the spread (ATS) this season. They own an 8-7 ATS record through 15 games. They also own a 5-3 road ATS record thus far.
The Packers have been one of the best teams in the NFL against the spread, though. They boast an 11-4 ATS record to go along with a league-best 6-1 home ATS record. They’re covering the spread by an average of 5.2 points per game at home.
Minnesota’s consistently found the over in their games, while Green Bay’s found the under more often than not.
Overall, the Vikings have hit the over in 60% of their games, while the Packers have hit the under at the same rate this season.
Vikings vs. Packers prediction
The number feels like a trap; -6.5 points generally isn’t a great number to bet. With that being said, I don’t expect the Vikings to beat the Packers twice this season.
There’s too much on the line for both teams to bet against Rodgers in favor of Cousins. I expect Green Bay’s offense to get back into a rhythm while their defense continues to create turnovers.
I do worry about Minnesota riding their running backs the same way the Cleveland Browns should have last week. If they don’t get down double-digits early in the game, the Vikings can utilize their run game to keep this contest close. Still, at some point in time, they’re going to have to trust Cousins, and that’s when I expect Green Bay to separate themselves.
Vikings vs. Packers Prediction: Packers 27, Vikings 20