This is the must-watch game of the week. The Cincinnati Bengals face Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17. With the playoffs just around the corner, let’s look at the NFL odds and make a pick and prediction for the Chiefs vs. Bengals AFC powerhouse matchup.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals pick, prediction | Week 17
- Spread: Chiefs -5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Chiefs -225, Bengals +185
- Over/Under: 50
The Chiefs are currently the only team to officially clinch an AFC playoff spot. They sit atop the NFL standings in the AFC, with an 11-4 record. Keep in mind, this team started the season 1-2, then 2-3, and everybody was panicking. While the Chiefs have not quite been the same dominant point-scoring machine offensively this year, they’re still top four in points per game (28.1).
[bet-bonus id=”164810″ ]Mahomes and his offense have had more support than ever before from defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and the defense. What’s frightening is that, yes, they’re a top-four offense in points per game, but they’re also a top-five defense in points allowed.
Kansas City is allowing just 20.4 points per contest, compared to teams like the New Orleans Saints, who are so widely known for being an excellent defense, allowing 20.3. The Chiefs are now putting themselves up there with the best defenses in the league and simply don’t need to score 40+ points every game to win.
Are the Bengals the most exciting offense in the NFL right now?
On Sunday, Joe Burrow became the first 500-yard passer in Bengals franchise history in a flawless performance against the Baltimore Ravens. He threw for 525 yards and 4 touchdowns, and while it must be noted that the Ravens were missing a lot of their starters, the feat is still impressive.
Ultimately, the Bengals are extremely entertaining to watch on offense. Ja’Marr Chase has made the Pro Bowl as a rookie. I maintain that Tee Higgins is one of the most underrated receivers in football. Joe Mixon is a top-five back on his best day, and Joe Burrow has settled in and helped turn the fate of the entire franchise around. So, Sunday afternoon football between Mahomes and Burrow and all the talent these two rosters possess? Yes, please!
Chiefs vs. Bengals betting trends
The Chiefs’ win last week marks their eighth in a row and their sixth against the spread (ATS). Kansas City has dominated in recent weeks, and the offense is getting back to those 35-point games as of late. In their last three outings, the Chiefs have scored an average of 39.3 points per game and cashed three overs in a row. KC is 8-7 ATS and on over/unders this season.
The Bengals, on the other hand, are 2-2 in their last four, both ATS and on over/unders. Cincinnati bounced back this week with a high-scoring win against the Ravens. Yet, the week prior, they only managed 15 points against the Broncos in a low-scoring affair, still covering the spread.
Chiefs vs. Bengals prediction
I can’t quite place where I think the Bengals are right now. On the one hand, Joe Burrow’s performance was historic in Week 16, and he looked every bit the part of a top-10 franchise QB. However, prior weeks have been messy for the offense, and that makes me nervous.
Burrow will have his work cut out against the Chiefs’ defense, but I still think the Bengals score at least three times. This is a 60+ point game for me, but is Kansas City’s experience in these games going to be too much for Burrow and the Bengals?
I think the game is decided by a 3-point margin or less, so I’m going to take the Bengals, and I’ll take the over with confidence.
Chiefs vs. Bengals Prediction: Chiefs 34, Bengals 31