Tonight’s Monday Night Football prediction features two NFC North rivals struggling to stay relevant. The mercurial Minnesota Vikings head to the rebuilding Chicago Bears for Week 15. For this prime-time matchup, let’s dive into Vikings vs. Bears and determine the best pick and prediction for this NFL betting line.
Monday Night Football Pick: Vikings vs. Bears prediction
We continue this wacky NFL season in Week 15 with two teams that have battled for years but have had struggles staying relevant for long periods.
Minnesota entered the 2021 season expecting to challenge the Green Bay Packers for the division title but have lost games in ridiculous fashion. Now, they are solely fighting for a Wild Card position.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]Chicago has searched for quarterback stability for years now and hopes Justin Fields is the answer. Head coach Matt Nagy is one of the most disliked coaches in the league, yet he’s still retained his job for the time being.
Will the Bears have enough depth to make them the correct pick in tonight’s Monday Night Football prediction with a string of health and protocol inactives to go along with their injury list?
Clear and easy path
Minnesota is an interesting story this year. Just when it seems like they are about to right the ship and go on a winning streak, they find a way to shoot themselves in the foot and lose again. The number of close games this team has been in this season could be due to their game philosophy.
Five of Minnesota’s seven losses have come by 4 or fewer points this season. Of their six wins, four have been by a touchdown score or less. The Vikings have played 13 games this year, and only two came by a score of 9 or more.
The advanced metrics show the Vikings are a legitimate team. Minnesota has an elite offense led by their top-10 passing attack. They rank 11th in offensive DVOA with the sixth-best passing attack but rank 27th on the ground. Regarding EPA, the Vikings are equally unbalanced, with their 11th-overall offense fueled by the eighth-ranked aerial unit and the 25th-ranked running attack.
Dalvin Cook returned to his elite form last week, which is beneficial considering backup running back Alexander Mattison will not be available for this game due to health and safety protocols. Pro Bowl receiver Adam Thielen is also questionable. He would be a welcomed advantage for Minnesota if he can go.
One-dimensional
Defensively, the Vikings could improve in certain areas. According to EPA, Minnesota comes in with the 17th-ranked defense, fueled by their 11th-ranked secondary. However, they are atrocious at stopping the run with the 26th-ranked front seven according to DVOA and the second-worst run defense in EPA.
Will that deficiency be the deciding factor in this game against an elusive quarterback in Fields? Or will the Vikings be the pick and put all the pieces together for tonight’s Monday Night Football prediction?
Bear down
Winning requires a team effort, but having a quality starting QB helps ease the difficulty. When Chicago drafted Fields in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, they expected answers to their prayers. The Bears have longed for an elite signal-caller for years, and someone with Fields’ pedigree could solve their woes. Chicago comes into MNF on a two-game losing streak and is 4-9 on the season.
Their offense looks extremely grim when diving into the numbers. They rank seventh-worst in expected points added (EPA) and DVOA (Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric). This offense is weighed down by their sixth-worst passing offense and Fields’ 30th-ranked EPA + CPOE (completion percentage over expected) composite. Chicago does run the ball decently as the 15th-best attack regarding EPA and 19th in DVOA.
The 2021 rendition of the Bears’ defense is nothing compared to years past. Chicago ranks 24th in total defensive DVOA and 27th in EPA. Opposing teams can attack all parts of the defense as they are equally bad at stopping the run as they are defending the pass. The highest ranking for Chicago’s defense at any position is their 22nd-ranked run DVOA.
Is this an obvious pick for this Monday Night Football prediction with one team significantly better than the other?
Vikings vs. Bears prediction and pick
The Vikings come into this game facing the divisional rival Bears for the first time this season. This year, they have beaten good teams like the Los Angeles Chargers and Green Bay Packers. With injury and COVID concerns in Chicago’s secondary pushing this line to -6.5, Minnesota is that much more enticing.
The Bears don’t have much going for them in this game. The remainder of this season should be a lesson in NFL experience for Fields, and the Vikings’ defense is quietly dangerous. I’ll lay the points with the Vikings as my pick in this Monday Night Football prediction. My projections show this as a Minnesota win by a score of 30-23.