Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins will face off against Alvin Kamara and the New Orleans Saints this weekend. The Dolphins own the second-longest win streak (six games) in the NFL, while the Saints have won each of their last two. Both teams are 7-7, and this game could cut one of these teams out of the playoffs. Below, you’ll find the NFL odds along with my pick and Dolphins vs. Saints prediction for Week 16.
Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints pick, prediction | Week 16
- Spread: Saints -3 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Dolphins +145, Saints -165
- Over/Under: 39.5
The Dolphins and Saints are two teams that have been relying heavily on their defenses to find success this season. Although they have the potential to put points on the board, both teams have found more defensive than offensive success in 2021.
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Overall, Miami ranks 15th in the NFL by allowing 22.3 points per game. They’ve been playing at a higher level recently, though, holding their opponents to only 14.3 points per game over their last three contests. The Dolphins have allowed 10 or fewer points in four of their last six games as well.
On the season, their advanced stats match that. Miami has allowed only 0.342 points per play, and that number dips to 0.25 over their last three games. The only major concern here is that the Dolphins are allowing 0.386 points per play on the road in 2021.
The Saints are hot defensively
New Orleans is in a similar spot, ranking sixth in the NFL in points allowed per game. Overall, they’ve held their opponents to 20.4 points per outing. That number dips to only 12 over their last three games, as the Saints shut out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their last matchup.
New Orleans has looked elite on a per-play basis, conceding only 0.317 points per play on the season. That number drops to only 0.18 over their last three contests. Oddly enough, the Saints have struggled at home, where they’re giving up 0.46 points per play in 2021.
Dolphins vs. Saints betting trends
Miami and New Orleans have both seen mixed results against the spread (ATS) in 2021. The Dolphins own a 7-6-1 ATS record, while the Saints are 7-7. Miami covered in five of their last six games, with New Orleans covering in each of their last two.
Unsurprisingly, these teams lean toward the under in their games. They’ve each hit the under in 57.1% of their contests thus far. Miami’s hitting the under by an average of 2.2 points per game, while New Orleans is finding it by an average of 1.5.
Dolphins vs. Saints prediction
This is a tough matchup to predict, as both teams are playing for their shot at the playoffs. In a defensive-minded game, I prefer the team that should be able to control the clock. In this situation, that will be New Orleans, who should utilize their run game to limit Miami’s opportunities.
This is also the type of game where I prefer the under. With that said, there will be opportunities for turnovers, potentially causing easy possessions for either offense. Ultimately, the Dolphins vs. Saints game should be one of the better ones in terms of real-life football, but there isn’t anything I love in terms of betting.
Dolphins vs. Saints Prediction: Saints 21, Dolphins 17