The fantasy football playoffs are here, and they officially kick off on Thursday Night Football. As usual for this season, things are not relatively as straightforward as we might like. Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler comes in with a questionable tag. He put together a patchwork week of walkthroughs and practices. Depending on Ekeler’s status and usage, could fantasy managers put their team’s future in the hands of Justin Jackson or Joshua Kelley this week?
Update 12/16/21: Austin Ekeler is active for the Chargers tonight.
Austin Ekeler is questionable for Thursday Night Football
Ekeler has been his usual sensational self this season — but with a slight catch. He has managed to stay healthy. Well, nearly healthy as he comes into Thursday Night Football listed as questionable. He injured his ankle in Sunday’s win over the New York Giants. Nevertheless, he is expected to play per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero.
According to reports, the Chargers will not decide on Ekeler’s status until after pregame workouts. But barring a setback, he is expected to suit up. Ekeler was listed as a non-participant Monday. Yet, he was limited on both Tuesday and Wednesday, which should be a positive sign.
However, Taylor Bisciotti of NFL Network noted that head coach Brandon Staley mentioned that Ekeler is experiencing more soreness than anticipated, leading us to wonder if he would see his typical volume. Reduction in either efficiency or volume could be massive for fantasy managers who have relied on Ekeler’s incredible season.
Ekeler is currently the RB2 in overall scoring (276.5) and sits No. 3 in per game average at 21.3 PPR points. He continues to build on an already career-best season on the ground with 730 rushing yards with 9 touchdowns. Not to mention his prolific receiving capabilities out of the backfield. He’s hauled in 58 of 75 targets for 535 yards with 7 additional scores.
Ekeler is as indispensable as it comes, and if he plays, you start him accordingly. Now, if he is out or limited in his workload, we need to decipher which Chargers RB would be the most valuable for fantasy.
Both Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley split reps last week
The problem when you have a running back who dominates the touches as Ekeler does is it leaves us in a gray area as to how the rest of the backfield shakes out. Even last week, when Ekeler left in the third quarter, we had just three drives worth of data to go over. But honestly, it is rather telling.
Without an RB like Ekeler who can do it all, the Chargers will operate as a committee. Jackson will serve as the passing RB, while Kelley will be the first and second-down back.
Over the final three drives of last week’s game, Kelley played on 69% of the snaps and saw 67% of the rushing attempts. In total, he carried the ball 10 times for a lukewarm 33 yards and hauled in a catch for 5 yards.
On the other side, Jackson was the primary receiving back, playing on 66% of the passing plays. While it did not result in a ton of production (1 catch for 5 yards), it at least showed how the Chargers plan to operate. Jackson actually wasn’t even too far off Kelley in carries for the entire game. Yet, he saw more usage in the first half, rushing 9 times for 25 yards.
What should be our fantasy expectations for Jackson and Kelley?
My initial feeling is Ekeler will play tonight. Most beat reporters feel as if he will suit up, and if so, he’s an obvious must-start. Now, if I were to choose an RB who I believe has the most fantasy upside regardless of Ekeler’s status or limitations, it would be Jackson.
Not only would he still get enough work on the ground (15 carries in the last two games), but his skill set matches what the Chargers want to do offensively.
As a team, LA is No. 5 in passing percentage (63.4%) and 28th in rushing percentage (36.5%). Ekeler does so well, aside from being a superhuman of an athlete, because he doesn’t need to come off the field for passing downs, which is where the Chargers feel the most comfortable.
With that being the case, Jackson is the likeliest candidate to have a decent outing if Ekeler misses time or is limited. Nevertheless, it would require the Chargers ruling Ekeler inactive to give me enough confidence to start Jackson with my fantasy life on the line against Kansas City.