ESPN’s Adam Schefter has reported that DeAndre Hopkins is out for the rest of the regular season with a sprained knee injury. What is the potential fantasy football impact for Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, and Rondale Moore?
Update (12/16/21): DeAndre Hopkins will have knee surgery on a torn MCL and will be placed on the injured reserve.
DeAndre Hopkins’ injury and fantasy outlook
This was not the season the Cardinals or fantasy managers envisioned for the perennially elite Hopkins. He was the fantasy WR4 last year — his first in an Arizona uniform.
It marked his fourth consecutive top-five WR campaign, putting him in an exclusive club. But he missed three games with a hamstring injury, exited early in another, and was noticeably less than 100% healthy in at least one other contest.
Now, he’s out for the rest of the regular season with a sprained knee. As shared this morning, the 10-3 Cardinals need him for the postseason more than the regular season. Beyond securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC, their biggest objective is for their stacked offense to be healthy for the playoffs. So, it’s clear why this team is playing it safe with their No. 1 receiver, and unfortunately for fantasy managers, that means finding a replacement for the fantasy playoffs.
If you need a backup plan — or want to block an opponent who has Hopkins — here are realistic fantasy projections for three other Arizona wideouts.
Fantasy outlook for Arizona receivers with Hopkins sidelined
Before Monday’s loss to the Rams, I had deep concerns with Green’s fantasy potential going forward. The 33-year-old’s former greatness was on display in spurts the first half of the season as he racked up 3 touchdowns through Week 6 while enjoying a decent 6 targets in five of those six games — not bad for the presumed No. 3 receiver. And his 66% catch rate wasn’t too shabby.
But he hasn’t scored since, and his catch rate has been a sub-pedestrian 62% since Week 7. His targets have ranged from 1 to 10, and everywhere in between. As good as he was this past Monday night, his ceiling is around a back-end WR2, and his floor is around a WR5.
I’m more intrigued with Kirk, though that might be a controversial position. After all, Kirk’s floor has been as low or lower than Green’s this year. Now in his fourth NFL season, the former second-round pick hasn’t quite lived up to his early-career hype. That said, the talent is there, and his 75.7% catch rate is more than 13 points higher than his career mark entering 2021. With few exceptions, Kirk has earned starter’s snaps and should be in line for more work. I think his ceiling would be comparable to Green’s, but with a WR4 floor.
Finally, let’s touch on the rookie Moore. Can we trust him as a weekly fantasy contributor? Not yet. Most of his receptions are occurring near the line of scrimmage, capping his big-play opportunities. However, he’s a player to stash in deeper leagues, as his snap share should increase, as should his targets (currently 4.7 per game). Presumably the most TD-dependent fantasy option in this trio, Moore would offer WR3 upside and a WR5 floor.