Oregon and Oklahoma were both in the playoff discussion at one point during the 2021 college football season. Since then, they’ve been phased out — but that doesn’t mean they can’t end the 2021 season on a high note. Here’s a look at the Oregon vs. Oklahoma matchup in the Valero Alamo Bowl, complete with a pick and a score prediction.
Oregon vs. Oklahoma betting odds and trends
- Spread: Oklahoma -6.5 (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma -275, Oregon +220
- Total: 60
As we near the start of the Oregon vs. Oklahoma matchup in the 2021 Valero Alamo Bowl, the spread is currently -6.5 in favor of the Oklahoma Sooners. That may be a surprise to some, with what’s gone on in Oklahoma over the past month.
The Sooners were shocked by the sudden departure of head coach Lincoln Riley, who preferred a fresh start with the USC Trojans. That departure was accompanied by several transfers, most notably those of quarterback Spencer Rattler, wide receiver Jadon Haselwood, and tight end Austin Stogner.
Even amidst the change, however, interim head coach Bob Stoops — a legend in Norman from his previous stint as Oklahoma’s head coach — has the team in good spirits.
And Oklahoma still has plenty of young talent to field against the Ducks.
Oregon might have been able to exploit the recent turmoil in Norman, but the Ducks are dealing with their own tumult. Head coach Mario Cristobal left to join the Miami Hurricanes, leaving the head coach position entrusted to interim coach Bryan McClendon. Unlike Stoops, McClendon has no pre-existing head coaching experience.
Oregon vs. Oklahoma prediction
The coaching gap between Stoops and McClendon alone is enough to account for the sizable spread between these two teams. The talent on the field also comes into play, but both teams will be notably shorthanded — perhaps mitigating any differences and putting the onus on the coaching staff to elevate their players.
Oregon lost two top receivers, two top cornerbacks, and its best player in EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux. Thibodeaux, Mykael Wright, and Devon Williams declared for the 2022 NFL Draft. Meanwhile, Mycah Pittman and DJ James entered the transfer portal.
On the flip side, Oklahoma lost its four best defensive players in Nik Bonitto, Isaiah Thomas, Perrion Winfrey, and Brian Asamoah. All four declared for the 2022 NFL Draft, opting out of bowl festivities.
Subsequently, Oklahoma’s defense is noticeably short-staffed. A redeeming quality of Oklahoma’s defense was that it could generate pressure in 2021. Now, that may be a bit more difficult as well.
What’s most important in the Oregon vs. Oklahoma showdown?
No matter how you spin it, both Oregon and Oklahoma are dealing with loss. In situations like these, the most important factors might be the “glue guys.” The head coach and quarterback will no doubt be tasked with navigating their respective teams to the finish line. Stoops has the edge on McClendon, on account of his ample experience. But what about the quarterbacks?
Anthony Brown flashed at times in 2021. But Oklahoma appears superior at the signal-caller position as well. Caleb Williams put up tremendous numbers in his freshman season. In 10 games, the wunderkind quarterback completed 116 of 185 passes for 1,684 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 4 picks. He also added 408 yards and 6 additional touchdowns on the ground.
Some of the raw statistics paint Oregon’s Brown in a similar light. The super senior amassed 2,692 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions while completing 63.8% of his passes. He also put up 637 rushing yards and 9 additional scores.
On the field, however, Williams holds a noticeable edge. He’s more consistent and more dynamic as a passer, and especially without two of his top weapons, Brown may struggle to keep up.
Who wins the 2021 Valero Alamo Bowl?
Given the losses on defense for both Oklahoma and Oregon, the projected point total of 60 makes sense. Oklahoma’s defense already struggled to keep points off the board. Now that their defense’s strongest unit has been decimated by opt-outs, that should only get worse.
Several draft prospects remain on Oregon’s offensive line. Thus, Oregon has a potential mismatch. But regardless, Oregon’s offense lacked consistency in 2021. They’ll be able to score in this one — enough to avoid getting blown out. But the Stoops-Williams advantage may be too much to overcome in a matchup where both teams are shorthanded.
Oregon vs. Oklahoma Prediction: Oklahoma 38, Oregon 27