There’s a certain increase in pressure when a winning record is on the line in bowl season. Such is the case in the North Texas vs. Miami (OH) matchup in the Frisco Football Classic Bowl. Both teams are 6-6 after regular-season college football play. One will finish above .500, and the other will finish below. Who will come out on top? Here’s a preview of the North Texas vs. Miami (OH) clash, complete with a pick and a score prediction.
North Texas vs. Miami (OH) betting odds and trends
- Spread: Miami (OH) -2.5 (Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Total: 54.5
- Moneyline: Miami (OH) -136, North Texas +115
Only one team can finish 2021 with a winning record
It’s not a battle between blue-bloods, but there’s still plenty at stake in the Frisco Football Classic Bowl. The winner gets to boast a winning record for the 2021 season, while the loser heads home 6-7, still seeking greater success. North Texas and Miami (OH) are fairly evenly matched, and that’s reflected in the spread. Miami is just a 2.5-point favorite.
Ironically, North Texas has been better at covering the spread this year, but they didn’t start out that way. The Mean Green began the season 1-6 through the first seven games. Their bowl hopes appeared all but extinguished, but North Texas fought back and won five straight against Rice, Southern Miss, UTEP, FIU, and conference champion UTSA.
Miami was much more up and down in conference play. They entered MAC play with a 1-3 record, then finished 5-3 in the remainder of the regular season. The RedHawks were one game away from a conference championship matchup against Northern Illinois. Had they beaten Kent State, they would’ve made it. But the Golden Flashes edged them out in overtime.
North Texas is in the bottom half of the league in both points per game (67th) and points allowed per game (78th). Miami, meanwhile, is in the top half at 63rd in points per game and 44th in points allowed per game.
North Texas vs. Miami (OH) prediction
Miami clearly shakes out as the better team at first glance. The RedHawks have a formidable defense led by NFL Draft prospects like Sterling Weatherford and Dominique Robinson. Even beyond them, players like Ivan Pace Jr., Matthew Salopek, Kameron Butler, Ben Kimpler, and Lonnie Phelps provide value.
On offense, Miami appears superior as well. Brett Gabbert was one of the more productive QBs in college football despite playing in just nine games. And down the stretch, he caught fire. He has 2,418 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. But 1,475 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 4 picks have come in the last four games. That stretch includes two 400-yard outings.
With his top weapons Jack Sorenson and Mac Hippenhammer, Gabbert can make life difficult for North Texas. But the Mean Green have one trick up their sleeve: the running game.
North Texas has lived almost entirely on the running game this season — a strange development given Austin Aune’s strong 2020 campaign. Ikaika Ragsdale, Ayo Adeyi, and Isaiah Johnson have been excellent rotational backs, but the offense is truly led by DeAndre Torrey, who has 1,214 yards and 13 scores on 248 carries.
Stopping the run is key for Miami (OH) vs. North Texas
If Miami wants to finish above .500, stopping the run will be key. North Texas is third in the nation in rushing yards per game. They have enough talent in their room where they can ride the hot hand and keep shuffling to keep players fresh. But if Miami can clog the middle and play disciplined, they can suffocate the Mean Green’s attack, like a lack of oxygen suffocates a flame.
If North Texas can’t run the ball, they’ll be left at the mercy of the aforementioned Aune, who hasn’t been nearly as efficient as a passer this year. He’s completing just 51.7% of his passes for 6.7 yards per attempt, and he has a TD:INT ratio of just over 1. If Gabbert and the RedHawks can get a lead early and force North Texas to throw the ball, they can come out on top.
Is it doable? Perhaps. Miami’s defense is 64th in rushing yards allowed per game and 63rd in rushing yards allowed per attempt — so essentially in the middle of the pack. It’ll be up to their star players like Weatherford, Robinson, and Pace to set the tone. If they can do that — and I think they can — North Texas may find itself outmatched.
North Texas vs. Miami (OH) prediction: Miami (OH) 38, North Texas 25