If you watched Western Kentucky or Appalachian State this season, you know the Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl is going to be a thriller. The Hilltoppers took a bunch of transfers and turned in record-breaking performances. The Mountaineers found their way back to being one of the best teams in the Sun Belt again, and now we get to see if they can handle slowing down one of the most explosive offenses in college football. Here are the current odds plus a pick and prediction for Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State.
Make sure to check out our pick and prediction for all the other bowl games being played today: the Independence Bowl, the Lending Tree Bowl, the Celebration Bowl, and the New Mexico Bowl.
Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State betting odds and trends
- Opening Line: Appalachian State -2.5 (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Current Line: Appalachian State -3
- Over/Under: 67.5
- Moneyline: Western Kentucky +130, Appalachian State -150
Western Kentucky finished the season 8-5, including an appearance in the Conference USA Championship Game, but they were closer to a double-digit win season than people realize. Just 19 points separated them from a 12-1 finish.
Slow starts put them behind, though, and even their offensive firepower wasn’t enough to help them claw back ahead of teams. In fact, with the exception of the Marshall game, you knew whether the Hilltoppers would win or lose the game at halftime. In their five losses, they had a point differential of -71 at the half, with their eight wins coming in at +78. They weren’t trying to hide anything. You knew exactly what was coming.
Appalachian State rediscovered its recipe for success this year. A 10-3 season was just 10 points away from 12-1 and a Sun Belt Championship. Many thought the Mountaineers were slipping a little after last year, but Shawn Clark quickly ended those doubts. They did it by keeping teams in check, holding all but one team under 31 points this season. That will be tested this weekend against one of the best offenses in college football.
Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State prediction
With the talent on both teams, it’s tough to pick just one matchup to watch. It comes down to whether or not Appalachian State can slow down the Hilltoppers’ passing attack.
Bailey Zappe took a COVID-shortened season at Houston Baptist (FCS) and turned it into a potentially record-breaking season at the FBS level. He currently sits eighth for most passing yards in a single season, and he needs 289 yards to break an 18-year-old record held by former Texas Tech QB B.J. Symons. Zappe also sits third in passing touchdowns in a single season. He needs 5 to beat Joe Burrow’s 2019 record.
The Hilltoppers throw on everyone and aren’t shy about it. The offense averages 528.4 yards per game, with 434.6 coming through the air. That’s what you get when you bring Zappe to your program. The Hilltoppers have two 1,000-yard receivers in Mitchell Tinsley and Jerreth Sterns. Those two combined for 26 touchdown receptions as well.
Appalachian State has their hands full, but they will also present some challenges to the Hilltoppers. At one point, Shaun Jolly was considered one of the best corners in the Sun Belt. Now, he has help. Steven Jones made some noise this year with 5 interceptions, but he also led the country with 3 interception returns for touchdowns.
Something’s got to give in this matchup, and it feels like the entire matchup pivots on the WKU passing attack.
Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State Prediction: Western Kentucky 42, Appalachian State 41