Tonight’s Thursday Night Football prediction will have significant playoff implications for both teams, but the pick secures the advantage. The mercurial Pittsburgh Steelers head to Minnesota to challenge the disappointing Vikings and kick off Week 14 tonight. Let’s dive into the Steelers vs. Vikings Thursday Night Football matchup and determine the best pick for this NFL betting prediction.
Thursday Night Football Pick: Steelers vs. Vikings prediction
We open Week 14 with two teams needing a win to stay relevant in the playoff race. Pittsburgh is a half-game behind the Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Buffalo Bills for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC.
In a season that was supposed to be led by their defense, Pittsburgh has been a disappointment this year.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]Minnesota loves to find ways to lose week in and week out. The amount of close games they have been in this year is laughable, and the ways they continue to lose could be added to a highlight reel for the 2021 season.
Can the Vikings get out of their own way to be a viable pick in this Thursday Night Football prediction? Or will the Steelers’ defense shape up and embarrass this Minnesota team that continues to find ways to lose?
The not-so-Steel Curtain
The Steelers have been somewhat of a confusing team to figure out this season. They have defeated juggernauts like the Bills, Cleveland Browns, and the Baltimore Ravens. The Bengals blew them out, and they tied the Detroit Lions. Pittsburgh enters this game 5-7 against the spread (ATS) on the season but 3-2 ATS on the road and 5-2 ATS as underdogs.
Offensively, the Steelers are below average across the board. Pittsburgh comes in with the 21st-ranked offense and a slightly better ranked passing attack than their run game. The offense has been difficult to watch this year, from quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to running back Najee Harris. Although Harris is fifth in total carries this season, his longest run from scrimmage is a measly 20 yards. Harris also comes into this game with a 3.6 yards-per-carry average, ranking 42nd among running backs.
The defense was supposed to be the bread and butter for Pittsburgh, as they expected to improve on last season’s dominating performance. This would have made them an appropriate pick for this Thursday Night Football prediction. However, after 13 weeks, this vaunted defense ranks 27th in total DVOA (Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric) and 23rd in total EPA (Expected Points Added).
The Steelers’ inability to defend both the run and pass efficiently could be attributed to their injuries. They will be going up against an efficient Vikings offense tonight and will need to muster some of that historic Steel Curtain energy in Minnesota. Will the Steelers’ defense make a mark tonight and make them a viable pick for tonight’s Thursday Night Football prediction?
Stop shooting yourself in the foot
Just when it seems like the Vikings are about to right the ship and go on a winning streak, they find a way to shoot themselves in the foot and lose again. The number of close games this team has been in this season is somewhat shocking. Five of Minnesota’s seven losses have come by 4 or fewer points. Of their five wins, four have been by a touchdown or less. The Vikings have played 12 games this season, and only two finished with a score difference of 8 or more.
The advanced metrics show the Vikings are a legitimate team. Minnesota has a top-10 offense led by their top-five passing attack. They rank eighth in offensive DVOA with the third-best passing attack but are 29th on the ground. Regarding EPA, the Vikings are equally unbalanced, with their 13th overall offense fueled by the sixth-ranked aerial unit and the 27th-ranked rushing attack. Minnesota will have Dalvin Cook back tonight, so maybe the dual-threat option of Alexander Mattison and Cook will help alleviate the loss of Adam Thielen in the passing game.
Defensively, the Vikings have fallen apart as of late. According to EPA, Minnesota comes in with the 16th-ranked defense, fueled by their 10th-ranked secondary. However, they are atrocious at stopping the run with the 29th-ranked front seven according to DVOA and the absolute worst run defense in EPA. Since Week 7, Minnesota’s defense ranks 29th overall in EPA while equally failing to stop the pass (26th) and the run (29th).
Will that deficiency be the deciding factor in this game with a Pittsburgh offense focused on feeding their running back the ball? Or will Minnesota put all the pieces together and squeak out a win as a pick for tonight’s Thursday Night Football prediction?
Steelers vs. Vikings prediction and pick
These teams are desperate for a win to remain in playoff contention tonight. Both are one game out from the final Wild Card spot in their respective conferences. With Minnesota’s inability to stop the run being a significant factor, plus Pittsburgh’s relentless desire to force-feed Najee the ball, I’m expecting a tight battle decided by a field goal.
I’ll gladly take the Steelers +3.5 as a road prime-time dog in this matchup. I predict a 24-21 final score with the Vikings winning but the Steelers covering as the pick for this Thursday Night Football prediction.