Now that the football season is less than a week away, Pro Football Network decided it would be the perfect time to reveal our handicapper’s week one selections. NFL odds can be a volatile market; it is best to get your money down as soon as possible. With that being said, make sure you have all the information you need before spending your hard-earned cash. That is where we come in. Here are some week one plays that our expert will be on.
Tommy Teaser
Panthers +9 and Eagles -3 (-120) risk $30 to win $25
Sports gambling 101 teaches us that there are two key numbers when looking at NFL odds. Those key numbers are three and seven. A teaser is a play in which you are given extra points on two or more games in exchange for lower payouts than a parlay.
Taking teasers can be tricky. It is difficult enough to hit one game, in a teaser you’re counting on two teams to cover the spread. The value lies in manipulating the line into crossing both three and seven. This brings us to our very first “Tommy Teaser” play of the week.
The Eagles enter the first game of the season as heavy home favorites against Washington. Philadelphia beat up on Washington in both matchups last December. The Skins haven’t covered the spread against the Eagles since 2016. This line is -9 or -9.5 in most places. The key is getting it down to -3 or even -2.5 if you have access to Caesars Sportsbook.
The Los Angeles Rams are a West Coast team opening the season with an East Coast kickoff. They are also dealing with the dreaded Super Bowl hangover. That is a recipe for disaster, friends. Another factor is that they are 1-6-1 against the spread in their last eight meetings with the Panthers. I believe the Rams are a potential upset victim. Getting Carolina at +9 when paired up with the Eagles is just too much to pass up.
Patty Parlay
Chiefs and Ravens Money Line (+122) risk $25 to win $30.50
The Dolphins were never going to beat the Ravens in week one. After all, they never beat the Ravens. Baltimore is 8-0 against the spread versus Miami in their last eight matchups and 7-1 straight up. A touchdown or more decided six of those eight games.
If you grabbed the Ravens as recent as two weeks ago, you might have only had to give four points on the spread. With the “Tank for Tua” movement hitting full stride this past week in Miami, the Dolphins have dipped to a seven-point dog in most spots. I still think Baltimore covers the seven, but the reason “Patty Parlay” likes this as a Money Line play has more to do with the Kansas City side of the bet.
By parlaying the Ravens and Chiefs on the money line, we take the spread out of the equation altogether. This way, we only need both teams to win outright.
Kansas City is the road favorite in this one having won the last four meetings between these two. The Chiefs are also 7-0 against the spread in September the past two seasons. The Jaguars were a tremendous disappointment last year, but enter their home opener with Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles at quarterback. A tight game here would not surprise me.
Parlay the Chiefs and Ravens to avoid sweating out and losing a potential Chiefs three-point victory on the hook (-3.5).
Sunday Play
San Francisco at Tampa Bay over 49.5 (-110) risk $22 to win $20
I’m not exactly sure just how good either of these teams will be this season, but grabbing the over in a matchup between Kyle Shanahan & Bruce Arians is something I can’t pass up. Last season, the San Francisco 49ers ranked 28th in Red Zone defense. Tampa Bay ranked near the bottom of the league in practically every advanced defensive metric.
I expect Jameis Winston and Jimmy Garoppolo to engage in a shootout with touchdowns and turnovers aplenty. The over has hit in three of the last four meetings between the 49ers and Buccaneers.
Monday Night Play
Broncos PK (-110) risk $22 to win $20
Monday features two AFC West teams I have moving in opposite directions. I expect the Raiders to struggle this season and have them at under six wins on the NFL odds season win totals. Meanwhile, I’m more bullish on Denver this year than most. I even sprinkled some ice cream money on the Broncos winning the division at +1200.
This line opened at Oakland -3 but has moved to a pick in most spots. That means sharp money moved the line in our direction long ago. I still like Denver to win this one outright on the road.
“Shot in the Dark”
Nine team Parlay: risk $1 to win $25
Falcons (+4), Ravens ML, Chiefs ML, Titans (+6), Eagles ML, Seahawks ML, Chargers ML, Cowboys ML & Saints ML
Week 1 Survivor Play
Seattle Seahawks
If you missed any of our future picks, you can find them here. Follow us on twitter @PFN365 for more NFL odds coverage.