With Jared Goff hobbled with an oblique injury, the potentially short-lived Tim Boyle era in Detroit begins today. All odds are against the 27-year-old journeyman breaking through on the road against the Browns in his first NFL start. The primary concern for fantasy football managers is whether Boyle’s presence means a downgrade for D’Andre Swift, T.J. Hockenson, and any other Lions player you might plan on starting in Week 11.
Tim Boyle’s Week 11 fantasy outlook
Boyle was not expected to earn a start in 2021. The Lions invested heavily in Goff this offseason as their next franchise quarterback with the departure of former mainstay Matthew Stafford. After an impressive start to the season (5 TDs in his first two games), Goff has collapsed (3 TDs and 7 turnovers in his last seven).
For context, across a full season, that would make Goff one of the worst fantasy QBs in decades (if not close to a century).
Boyle has somehow carved out a backup role in the NFL despite throwing 12 TD passes and 26 interceptions across four college seasons at the University of Connecticut and Eastern Kentucky University. He averaged a paltry 5.6 yards per pass attempt, which is below Goff’s 2021 woeful numbers. No one should feel confident that Boyle will be any better than Goff has been.
To make matters worse, the Browns are tied for the league lead in sacks, despite being subpar in the pass-defense department. Favored by “only” 11.5 points today, it’s easy to see the Browns winning this one by more than 30. In fact, if Boyle struggles, Detroit may pull the plug by the third quarter (if not earlier). This has all the makings of a disaster.
Week 11 fantasy outlook for D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson
This leads us to a more pointed conversation about Detroit’s scant fantasy options. Swift was one of my contrarian “sit ’ems” earlier this week, and I stand by that prediction.
While he could eat up targets from an inexperienced QB, his yardage upside is significantly capped by a defense expecting the Lions’ offense to run through Swift. Detroit’s No. 1 RB is coming off a 33-carry performance last weekend against the Steelers. If you’re expecting top-20 production from Swift, please recalibrate expectations.
As for Hockenson, the same truth holds. Worse yet, if this is the blowout I expect it to be by early in the second half, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions pull their starters. Hockenson’s a TD-dependent TE2 for a team that probably won’t find the end zone.
So to recap, this is a week to bench every Lions player in fantasy unless you’re struggling to find an RB3/flex on your bench or waivers. Final score prediction? 38-3 Browns. We can all admire Boyle for carving out an NFL career — something most of us will never do. But his first NFL start could not come at a worse time.