Who’s the No. 4 fantasy football WR in points per game? Antonio Brown. Whose injury status has given fantasy managers heartburn for a month? Antonio Brown. What is Brown’s injury outlook ahead of Week 11, and can we expect continued elite production when he returns?
Antonio Brown’s injury outlook for Week 11
Brown’s injury came out of nowhere, as it sometimes happens in the NFL. In Week 6, Brown caught 9 of 13 targets for 93 yards and a score on Thursday Night Football. It marked his third blow-up performance in five games on the season.
Then, the following Wednesday, Brown missed practice with an ankle sprain near his heel. After missing the rest of the week’s practices, he was declared inactive for Week 7. He would then add a crutch and walking boot to his clothing accessories, and by that point, the writing was on the wall. This was not a day-to-day injury situation, which head coach Bruce Arians soon reinforced to the media.
But good news! Brown was back on the field at this Thursday’s practice with no walking boot, though it did not constitute an official practice. In a brief video I watched from The Athletic’s Greg Auman, he was (baby steps) pivoting, moving, and catching passes.
But bad news! CBS Sports’ Josina Anderson reported Thursday afternoon that a league source said AB has “a long way to go” to get healthy. Since the Bucs are playing Monday night, we might not get clarity on Brown’s status until the weekend, or perhaps even Monday a couple of hours before game time. So, this remains a situation we will monitor closely.
What is Brown’s fantasy outlook this week and beyond?
Over the summer, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were expected to be Tom Brady’s top two targets. Evans sported a preseason average draft position (ADP) of WR13. Godwin (WR16) was dropping half a round later. But Brown? He was the WR39, which most fantasy analysts bought into. I was more optimistic about Brown and ranked him as the WR32. But I still missed the boat.
The reasons now seem obvious. Despite playing in only eight games last year, Brown was the WR23 in points per game. Having played in only one contest for New England the year before, AB was coming in cold after nearly two years away from the sport. He was finding his way on a roster that already included two top-20 WRs and (eventually) a future Hall of Fame TE (Rob Gronkowski). Yet, Brown managed to average only about 1 fantasy point less per game than Evans or Godwin.
Full disclosure: I traded for Brown earlier this season. He almost single-handedly won me two weeks. So yes, I’m high on him for reasons that go beyond his skill set and production. I sought him specifically in trade negotiations because heading into Week 5, his target share and relatively weak touchdown total suggested a rebound was coming.
Brown doesn’t need a high snap count. In a relatively high-powered offense, he remains a must-start WR when healthy. If your opponent is rostering him, is desperate for a win, and is tired of waiting, you might be able to trade for Brown — and I think you’ll be glad you did.