This is the time of the year where contenders separate themselves from pretenders. The playoff-bound Baltimore Ravens head to South Beach to face off against the disappointing Miami Dolphins for tonight’s Thursday Night Football prediction and pick. In this prime-time matchup, let’s dive into the Ravens vs. Dolphins and determine the best pick for this NFL betting prediction.
Thursday Night Football Picks: Ravens vs. Dolphins prediction
We open Week 10 with two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum. After expecting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to answer their 20+ year search for a franchise QB, Miami is back to square one with multiple holes across their roster. The Dolphins sit at 2-7 on the year and should be focused on 2022 rather than this season.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]Baltimore comes into this game at 6-2 and sitting in the No. 2 position in the AFC playoff picture. Quarterback Lamar Jackson is putting the Ravens on his back again, and his top-seven MVP odds prove that point. Which team presents the best value and pick in tonight’s Thursday Night Football matchup?
Mobtown mentality
Baltimore comes into this game with only one bad loss on their résumé. Their offensive mentality focuses on pounding the rock and exploiting defenses through the air when opposing teams sell out against the run and stack the box. This style of offense has worked well for Baltimore thus far as they score on 44.1% of their offensive possessions — good for seventh in the league.
The Ravens enter this game with a top-10 offense in the NFL. As expected, this offense features their top-five rushing attack in both EPA (expected points added) and DVOA (Football Outsiders’ advanced efficiency metric). Jackson is the 12th-ranked QB in the league regarding the EPA + CPOE (completion percentage over expected) composite. He enters this game with the ninth-highest passing yards and the 10th-highest QBR in the league.
Defensively, the Ravens have much to be desired. Baltimore ranks in the bottom half in all advanced defensive metrics besides their run-stopping abilities to this point in the season. They rank 23rd in DVOA and 22nd in EPA when looking at their pass defense advanced metrics. Miami should be able to move the ball decently through the air. But with the expectation that quarterback Jacoby Brissett will get the start tonight, those opportunities diminish significantly.
With one of the best offenses in the league, will Baltimore have another explosive performance against Miami in tonight’s Thursday Night Football prediction? Or will the Dolphins’ run-stopping unit slow down the Ravens and make them the right side for this Thursday Night Football pick?
Bienvenidos a Miami
How quickly do things change in 365 days? Just ask the Dolphins, and you’ll get your answer. After finishing last season 10-6 and owning one of the most aggressive defenses in the league, they expected a significant improvement from Tua to push them into the contender category. With a history of nagging injuries coming to fruition once again, Tagovailoa has missed four games already this season and is likely to miss his fifth tonight.
With the “musical chairs” signal-caller approach this season, Miami has one of the worst offenses in the league. The Dolphins come into this game with the fifth-worst offense in both EPA and DVOA. They cannot run the ball, and the passing attack suffers as defenses pin their ears back and attack the quarterback. The Dolphins have scored a whopping 2 offensive touchdowns from outside of the red zone this season, which is second-worst in the NFL.
Remember that vaunted Miami defense last season? Well, it no longer exists. The Dolphins spent more money on their secondary than any other team this season, yet enter this game with a bottom-10 unit.
However, one area of improvement for the Dolphins has been their run defense. Through Week 6, Miami owned the 27th defensive rush EPA but is sixth-best in the three weeks since. Will Miami’s improved run defense be enough to stop Baltimore’s top-five rushing attack and make them a viable pick in tonight’s Thursday Night Football prediction?
Ravens vs. Dolphins prediction and pick
As a Dolphins fan, I have witnessed Baltimore’s dominance over Miami over the last decade-plus. Miami has won once in their previous nine head-to-head matchups. The Ravens are not a team that has dominated opponents this season. Although they are 6-2 straight up, Baltimore owns a 3-5 record against the spread. That record gets worse when they are favorites, as they own a 1-5 record ATS when laying points.
Underdogs have a 77-58-1 (57%) record this season, yet that number increases dramatically during prime-time games. Prime-time underdogs own a 19-8 (70%) record ATS, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Miami kept this game close.
A teaser seems like the logical bet in this scenario with both the underdog ATS and the lack of Tua. Taking the Ravens down to -1.5 and over to 39 points on a 6.5-point teaser seems like the best option.
Miami should be able to muster 14-17 points while Baltimore is capable of exposing this Dolphins defense for 27-30. The Ravens should win by a field goal or more, and both teams are facing poor defenses. The Ravens -1.5 and over 39 points will be my official teaser pick in tonight’s Thursday Night Football prediction.