Midweek MACtion has brought the college football season full circle. As Week 10 presses forward, we take a look at our best bets and favorite lines for the weekend slate. Some of the lines have moved from our early Week 10 college football picks and predictions, and with that movement, some of our picks have been adjusted.
College football predictions, picks, and odds for Week 10
Here are the current lines for all the NCAAF games as of Thursday, November 4 at 11:30 AM ET. In addition, if the line has moved from our early-week picks and predictions, the new line is in italics.
Friday
- Virginia Tech @ Boston College (+3.5) | (+3)
- Utah @ Stanford (+7) | (+7.5)
Saturday early slate
- Army @ Air Force (-2.5)
- Ohio State @ Nebraska (+14.5)
- Liberty @ Ole Miss (-9) | (-9.5)
- Pittsburgh @ Duke (+21)
- Wake Forest @ North Carolina (-2.5)
- Kansas State @ Kansas (+23.5) | (+24)
- SMU @ Memphis (+5) | (+4.5)
- Missouri @ Georgia (-38) | (-38.5)
- Louisiana Tech @ UAB (-13.5)
- Illinois @ Minnesota (-14.5)
Saturday early slate continued
- Georgia Tech @ Miami (FL) (-10)
- Apalachian State @ Arkansas State (+21)
- Temple @ East Carolina (-15)
- California @ Arizona (+11.5) | (+12)
- North Texas @ Southern Miss (+5)
- UL-Monroe @ Texas State (-4) | (-3.5)
- Michigan State @ Purdue (+3)
- Wisconsin @ Rutgers (+12.5) | (-13)
- Tulsa @ Cincinnati (-22.5)
- Auburn @ Texas A&M (-4.5)
Saturday afternoon slate
- Oklahoma State @ West Virginia (+2.5) | (+3.5)
- Baylor @ TCU (+7)
- Middle Tennessee State @ Western Kentucky (-15)
- Navy @ Notre Dame (-21)
- Penn State @ Maryland (+10.5)
- South Alabama @ Troy (-4)
- Colorado State @ Wyoming (+3.5) | (+3)
- Rice @ Charlotte (-6)
- Utah State @ New Mexico State (+18.5)
- NC State @ Florida State (+3) | (+2.5)
Saturday afternoon slate continued
- Mississippi State @ Arkansas (-5.5)
- Tulane @ UCF (-12.5)
- Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern (+19.5)
- Marshall @ Florida Atlantic (+1) | (+1.5)
- Iowa @ Northwestern (+12)
- Tennessee @ Kentucky (-1.5) | (pick ’em)
- Oregon State @ Colorado (+10.5)
- Boise State @ Fresno State (-5.5) | (-5)
- UNLV @ New Mexico (-2)
- Old Dominion @ FIU (+3) | (+2.5)
Saturday night slate
- LSU @ Alabama (-28.5)
- Indiana @ Michigan (-19.5) | (-20)
- Oregon @ Washington (+6.5) | (+7)
- Florida @ South Carolina (+18) | (+18.5)
- Texas @ Iowa State (-6.5)
- Clemson @ Louisville (+4)
- Houston @ South Florida (+13.5) | (+13)
- San Jose State @ Nevada (-10) | (-10.5)
- UTSA @ UTEP (+10.5) | (+11)
- USC @ Arizona State (-8) | (-8.5)
- San Diego State @ Hawaii (+7)
Week 10 college football picks and predictions
Let’s break down some of my favorite lines for Week 10. With so many options to choose from, it is always a bit difficult to come down to the best options.
Virginia Tech (-3) vs. Boston College
Time: Friday, November 5, 7 PM ET
The Hokies are a team playing with nothing to lose, while the Eagles continue to be a team on the rise. Despite injuries that have derailed them this season, Boston College has proven to be a tough out for most ACC teams. That being said, they haven’t scored more than 14 points in four straight games and are averaging just 10 points per game since October began.
Virginia Tech is likely on the hunt for a new head coach and coaching staff at year’s end, so Justin Fuente and Co. are on borrowed time. I anticipate them to play loose and fast and play to win rather than not to lose. That may sound hyperbolic, but it’s not. Expect “Beamer Ball” to make a return down the last four-game stretch to end the season. Going for it on fourth down, not punting in plus-territory, fakes, reverses, and the like — Fuente has it all at his disposal.
VA Tech QB Braxton Burmeister has been average this season, but he still has a 9:3 TD-to-INT ratio this season. The Hokies haven’t mustered a sustained rushing attack this year but certainly have the receivers to expose some holes in BC’s defense. It should be a defensive struggle, but Amaré Barno and Jermaine Waller still have 2022 NFL Draft aspirations to live up to.
Borrowed time on a borrowed evening of football equals a recipe for success for a road favorite. Hokies win this game, and they’ll need it with only one more winnable game left on their schedule.
Army vs. Air Force (-2.5)
Time: Saturday, November 6, 11:30 AM ET
The Falcons’ defense is playing lights out, whereas their fellow Armed Forces foe is not. Army has allowed 118 points over their last three games but, most importantly, allowed the Wake Forest RPO attack to torch them for 70. The Black Knights queued on the run, but the long mesh point of Sam Hartman destroyed them over the top with multiple deep passes and long touchdowns.
While Air Force doesn’t present problems similar to a Wake Forest offensive attack, they do present trouble if you just key on their rushing attack. Air Force QB Haaziq Daniels has eclipsed 550 yards on just over 50 throws this year, while Brandon Lewis and Micah Davis have each had their moments at receiver.
Daniels is running the option attack very well, while Brad Roberts is a bruiser on the inside with deceptive speed. Army will be able to load the box and attack their rushing options, but it really hasn’t seemed to matter this season for Air Force. The Falcons hit a few passes over the top against the Black Knights and win big.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky (PK)
Time: Saturday, November 6, 7 PM ET
At this price, the safety of picking the better team is too good to pass up. Kentucky is clearly that, even if the Vols have started to pick it up as of late. I fully expect to see Tennessee rocket out the gates and even gain a first-half lead. But their depth has been a concern, and the Wildcats have been in tough battles already this season.
Kentucky QB Will Levis has started to heat back up after a midseason lull. He didn’t fare all that well against Mississippi State but had 5 touchdowns compared to 0 interceptions in the two games prior against better defenses.
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The Wildcats’ defense, however, should give them the biggest advantage. Josh Paschal is their all-everything edge defender who can easily push the pocket on Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker. If Hooker does have time to pass, the combination of Davonte Robinson and Yusuf Corker at safety with the cornerback trio of Carrington Valentine, Cedrick Dort Jr., and Quandre Mosely have proven tough to throw on.
They may not make many plays on the ball, but they’re sticky in coverage and limit yards after the catch. Kentucky can right the ship and should be the favorites to win the rest of their games after this week.
Houston (-13) vs USF
Time: Saturday, November 6, 7:30 PM ET
The Cougars are playing like a team possessed this year. They haven’t lost since Week 1 when they fell short against Texas Tech. And since then, their defense has allowed a grand total of 120 points. Prior to the SMU game this past weekend, they were giving up an average of 13.8 points per game.
As much as it had seemed USF turned a corner against Temple, the Owls’ lack of success against UCF lessens USF’s victory over them. Temple is clearly a shell of its former self, and USF demolishing them looks … well … not as good as it did a week ago.
Cougars WR Nathaniel Dell broke out against SMU, hauling in 3 touchdowns. He now has 7 scores on the year and is on pace to easily crack 1,000 yards. No one on the USF secondary seems capable of stopping him as no one really has been able to bottle him up all year.
Frustrated they were left out of the initial College Football Rankings, USF just gets in the way of an angry Houston team. Cougs roll — big.
UTSA (-11) vs UTEP
Time: Saturday, November 6, 10:15 PM ET
If you’re on the East Coast, this game is absolutely worth staying up for. UTSA, or as the College Football Playoff Committee would call them, “USTA,” is still undefeated. That includes taking a victory lap and trolling the CFP Committee, who wrongfully left them off the initial playoff ranking and made matters worse when they referred to them as “USTA” when “defending” their rankings.
UTSA can only control what they can control, and you better believe UTEP just gets in the way here. The Roadrunners are led by a terrific quarterback in Frank Harris. They have one of the nation’s top running backs in Sincere McCormick. Zakhari Franklin is a future NFL receiver. They’ve got a talented offensive line and terrific depth on offense.
And yet, this team is carried by its defense, most notably CB Tariq Woolen and S Rashad Wisdom. They’re more of a sum-of-all-their-parts defense, but Woolen (6’4″) is the big man on campus right now. Recently invited to the East-West Shrine Bowl, Woolen continues his ascension to joining the nation’s top cornerbacks.
Woolen is a converted wide receiver with amazing ball skills who can lock down any receiver. UTEP presents a challenge in Jacob Cowing on the outside, but you better believe when Woolen matches up with him, it’s advantage UTSA. UTSA stops what UTEP wants to do offensively, and McCormick runs for multiple scores. The Roadrunners are out for revenge, and unfortunately for the Miners, they’re in the crosshairs.